The Political Page, T+307, November 24, 2017 -- I'm Going Biking

I wish I had seen this two days ago, but better late than never. LOL

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Al Franken Supporter

Link here.

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Biggest Story I Missed This Week (And I Bet You Did, Too)

From CNBC -- (and archived here)

• Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley is giving President Trump yet another major victory on judicial nominations.
• None of this would have been possible without Harry Reid's decision to kill the filibuster.
• The result is Trump will get to fill the most federal judiciary vacancies in 40 years.

The Market And Energy Page, T+307 - November 24, 2017 -- S&P 500 With 54 Record Highs (So Far) Under Trump's First Year

Gasoline demand (remember, 2016 was record year for gasoline demand), source:

Another Trump record: Cyber Monday expected to be largest shopping day in US history. Not just this year; not just this decade. Not just this century. In the entire US history. A huge indicator of consumer confidence in Trump.

Market: Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs.

No one saw it coming -- WSJ:

Torrid pace of gains has pushed index to highs unimaginable earlier this year, and analysts are putting lofty targets on where index will go next year.

U.S. stocks are on the verge of a level few thought they would see this year: 2600 on the S&P 500.

Stocks’ upward climb has defied many analysts early-year predictions for a 2017 stall, leaving some upgrading their year-end forecasts to account for the benchmark index’s double-digit gains. Bank of America, for example, initially called for the S&P to finish the year at 2300, while Deutsche Bank expected the broad index to end up at 2350—milestones the S&P has blown past in 2017.

The increasingly upbeat outlooks underscore analysts and investors’ belief that synchronized global growth, an expanding U.S. economy and companies’ strong profit reports can extend stocks’ rally even further. The optimism and fear of missing out on gains—the S&P 500 is up 16% so far for the year—has helped markets rebound quickly from pullbacks.

Egg on face (actually the entire omelet):









My favorite:

WTI Hitting New Highs -- November 24, 2017

Active rigs:

$58.59↑↑	11/24/2017	11/24/2016	11/24/2015	11/24/2014	11/24/2013
Active Rigs	53	37	66	191	185

RBN Energy: Permian E&Ps explore ways to rein in sand supply-chain costs. A continuing series.

There’s a huge hurdle in the effort by E&Ps to take on the responsibility for frac sand logistics. In many ways, the simpler part of moving sand from the mine to the well site has been procuring the sand and having it hauled long-distance from the Upper Midwest to a transload facility in the shale play. The tougher nut to crack has been what’s known as the “last mile” — the delivery of sand by truck from the mine or transload facility (which often involves 20, 50 or even 100 miles or more), plus unloading sand at the well site before it is pumped into wells.

And because a much greater share of the frac sand used in Permian wells is expected to come from West Texas sand mines in the coming year, E&Ps that decide to assume supply chain responsibility are taking on a big, complicated job that will get tougher as volume continues to grow.

In an upcoming blog, we’ll zero in on these last-mile challenges, which include a shortage of truckers (and a new federal rule that will make that problem worse in December 2017), truck congestion on Permian roads and at well sites, and a new Occupational Safety & Health Administration (OSHA) regulation that will force major changes in how sand is handled at the well starting in June 2018. We’ll also look at other shale plays likely to experience a Permian-like shift toward regional sand supply.

Keystone pushes WTI higher: From MarketWatch -- 

U.S. oil prices climbed on Friday, hovering at two-and-a-half-year highs, as investors kept a wary eye on a pipeline disruption to a major crude-oil hub in Oklahoma.

West Texas Intermediate futures CLF8, rose 53 cents, or 0.9%, to $58.55 a barrel, hovering at levels not seen since the summer of 2015.

The contract has been inching closer in recent sessions, to attempt o to close the gap with Brent oil LCOF8, added 4 cents to $63.59 a barrel.

Both Brent and crude prices are up over 8% year-to-date. Keystone pipeline operator TransCanada said Tuesday that flow from its pipeline to the U.S. would be reduced by 85% through the end of November, after roughly 5,000 barrels of oil leaked in South Dakota last week.

OPEC in the dark about US shale: From Bloomberg --

Some OPEC officials are uneasy that no one seems to have a clear view of just how much shale oil will be hitting the market.

Forecasts of 2018 growth in shale output range from 500,000 barrels a day to as much as 1.7 million barrels a day, complicating any forecasts, Hall said at the briefing.

Hall, once known in the oil industry as “God” for his lucrative trades, said the U.S. Energy Information Administration is underestimating this year’s growth in shale oil by about 300,000 barrels a day.

And, finally Tesla -- things don't add up: From Bloomberg --

Elon Musk touted ranges and charging times that don’t compute with the current physics and economics of batteries. Four "promises" that raise huge questions:

• a semi that can haul 80,000 pounds for 500 miles on one charge -- the previous record: Daimler, October, 2017, a truck that maxes out at 220 miles; both Daimler and Tesla use the "same" kind of batteries [note: a reader reminds me that the "80,000 lbs" includes the tractor/trailer; net, the load is closer to 45,000 lbs and this is on interstate highways built for heavy loads; not necessarily the roads that Elon Musk is considering for "his" new semis]

• Tesla megachargers: 400 miles in 30 minutes -- this would be 10x better than Tesla's fastest chargers available today

• guaranteed charging rates of 7 cents per kWh: Tesla would have to pay a minimum of 40 cents per hour, on average for every 7 cents paid by a trucking company; as it is now, Tesla is offering a subsidy of as much as $1,000 for each Model S and each Model X owner in 2017

• a tiny roadster with a 620-mile range: that's a longer range than any battery-powered vechile on the road -- almost twice as long as Tesla's class-leading Model S and Model X; the Roadster does not have the room to pack in twice as many batteries as would be required

I've said many, many times, Tesla is not an auto manufacturing company; it's a battery company, and the biggest names in batteries -- Toyota, Sony, Apple, A123 -- have not been able to crack the "better battery code" after decades and billions of dollars in research.

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Too Much Turkey?

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #45 -- November 23, 2017

A few days ago I mentioned that WTI was starting to rise because the Keystone was shut down due to a pipeline leak in South Dakota. See this post. Now this headline from CNN: Oil prices hit 2½-year high on Keystone pipeline shutdown.

But it just isn't the Keystone shutdown that is driving the price of WTI. Traders are worried about Venezuela. For newbies: US refiners are optimized for heavy oil. They were counting on the Keystone XL to have been completed years ago guaranteeing an uninterrupted source of heavy oil from the Canadian oil sands.

Tonight, futures show WTI approaching $59. If the increase in WTI is due to the Keystone shutdown, oil companies may have been very, very clever/smart/prescient. If that's all it is, the rise in WTI will be short-term, and operators will pocket the difference in hedges/collars. They should get the Keystone up and running fairly soon, I would suspect, and if they do, WTI should trend back down. [I may have spoken too fast; there are now reports that South Dakota regulators are not happy with three Keystone spills in/near their state in less than 10 years, and re-opening the Keystone even after repaired could be problematic/delayed.]

On another note, this is an incredible story. Sometimes, one important data point is lost in all the verbiage; this is true in this Fortune story:

U.S. shoppers had splurged more than $1.52 billion online by Thanksgiving evening, and more bargain hunters turned up at stores this year after two weak holiday seasons as retailers opened their doors early on the eve of Black Friday.

At the start of the holiday season consumer spending rose 16.8 percent year-over-year until 5 p.m. ET on Thursday, according to Adobe Analytics, which tracked 80 percent of online transactions at the top 100 U.S. retailers.

Surging online sales and a shift away from store shopping have thinned the crowds typically seen at stores on Thanksgiving evening and the day after, Black Friday, for the past two years. But a strong labor market, rising home prices and stock markets at record highs have improved shopper appetite this year.

A lot of words, but this is simply incredible: Thursday shopping surged almost 20% year-over-year by 5:00 p.m. ET Thursday. And stores are open to midnight in many cases.  [A lot of folks apparently did not stay home to watch the NFL kneelers.]

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What Great Depression Are They Talking About

The Los Angeles  times has a story about the "record" number of homeless being served Thanksgiving meals this year. From the story:

Berkovich said the group has been serving nearly 1 million meals a year each year since 2013.

“We haven't seen numbers like this since the Great Depression,” she said.

 I must have missed the recent California Great Depression.

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Putting These Things Into Perspective

NFL-Free Thanksgiving Day -- November 23, 2017

It's very possible that by 2030, the US will celebrate one continuous festival starting Halloween Eve and running through early January. This would not be unprecedented. The Carnival of Venice, during much of the time that Giacomo Casanova lived (1725 - 1798), ran for six months. The city successfully incorporated festival, sexual peccadilloes, and commerce for six months.

The internet does a poor job covering this period. If interested, two books I would highly recommend, both on my night stand:

• Venice Incognito: Masks in the Serene Republic, James H. Johnson, c. 2011
• History of My Life: Giacomo Casanova, Everyman's Library edition, c. 2007

I have my mask ready.

Speaking of books: I'm still reading the biography of Siegfried Sassoon. Sparse, "scaffolding" notes are being placed here. I only get to the library every other day or so to read the book. I haven't checked it out -- already too many books at the house.

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NFL Slump Getting Worse -- NY Post

Link here.  

As noted before, the NFL will sort this out. Most likely they will do what kindergarten teachers use to do with unruly boys: stand them in the corner. For the NFL, the players will remain in the locker room until after the national anthem is over.  I think it's hilarious. Seriously.

This is the problem the NFL now has: even if a team like the Vikings has no one kneeling, no one will know. Fair weather fans like me will assume that all NFL players kneel when, in fact, it's a very, very small minority that kneel. As usual, one bad apple in the barrel has ruined it for everyone ....

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What Goes Around, Comes Around 

This is really quite fascinating. From the introduction of History of My Life: Giacomo Casanova, Everyman's Library edition, c. 2007:

Through the the 16th to the 19th century, Italy: family cults -- dominated their fellow-citizens and turned nominal republics into autocracies, if not dictatorships --

• Medici in Florence
• the della Scala in Verona
• the Gonzaga in Mantua
• the Este in Ferrara
• the Sforza and the Visconti in Milan

The Venetians turned away from this. The Most Serene Republic might not have been totally democratic but it was certainly more so (with the arguable exception of Switzerland) than any other country in Europe.

• the basic principle of the their constitution: no one family or individual could ever wax too great
• the Doge was a figurehead; only able to act when surrounded by his six Savii or wise men; probably yielded less effective power than the Queen of England today
• the real government of the country was in the hands of black-robed and faceless committees, their composition constantly changing

Wow, does that not sound like the "Deep State" in the United States? Has the president become more and more just a figurehead as Congress and federal judges? Is it the FCC, the FTC, the EPA, and a gazillion other "alphabet" committees and agencies the ones that really run the US government. Just the other day it was said that the second most powerful person in the world, right behind the President of the United States, was the US Federal Reserve chairperson, currently, Janet Yellen.

See also: Italy Magazine. 

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Fake News

This should have been the headline: Loessberg said the county looked at creating a new water utility for Sandbranch the 1990s but no one in the town wanted to run it.

So, instead, blame "America."

The British headline:  'America's dirty little secret': the Texas town that has been without running water for decade.

Source of water contamination? Too many hogs.