Sunday, June 25, 2017

It Just Doesn't Quit -- Making America Great Again -- June 25, 2017

A huge "hat tip" to a reader for sending me this link to the WSJ article: "The Shale Revolution's Staggering Impact In Just One Word: Plastics: Petrochemicals, once simply a cheap byproduct, are powering a U.S. manufacturing boom and export bonanza."

If I could write, this is the article I would have written.

Carter: cardigan sweaters.

Obama: we can't just drill our way to cheaper gasoline.

Businesswomen and businessmen (Elon Musk, Aubrey McLendon, Harold Hamm): taking risks to make America great again.

From the linked article:
When new parents in Rio de Janeiro buy baby food in plastic containers, they are bringing home a little piece of the U.S. shale revolution.

That boom in drilling has expanded the output of oil and gas in the U.S. more than 57% in the past decade, lowering prices for the primary ingredients Dow Chemical Co. DOW -0.56% uses to make tiny plastic pellets. Some of the pellets are exported to Brazil, where they are reshaped into the plastic pouches filled with puréed fruits and vegetables.

Tons more will be shipping soon as Dow completes $8 billion in new and expanded U.S. petrochemical facilities mostly along the Gulf of Mexico over the next year, part of the industry’s largest transformation in a generation.

The scale of the sector’s investment is staggering: $185 billion in new U.S. petrochemical projects are in construction or planning.
Last year, expenditures on chemical plants alone accounted for half of all capital investment in U.S. manufacturing, up from less than 20% in 2009.
Integrated oil firms including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell PLC are racing to take advantage of the cheap byproducts of the oil and gas being unlocked by shale drilling. The companies are expanding petrochemical units that produce the materials eventually used to fashion car fenders, smartphones, shampoo bottles and other plastic stuff being bought more and more by the world’s burgeoning middle classes.
Much, much more at the link.

Earlier today, another reader send me the link to this Bloomberg story:  Trump to Call for U.S. ‘Dominance’ in Global Energy Production. After reading the article, I replied to the reader:
  • unlike Obama, Trump really will mean "all the above" -- not just intermittent energy like Obama
  • it will take many, many years, possibly decades but energy is going to separate the US from the rest of the world --- unless the US elects another "Obama" president
  • I'm still waiting for Keystone XL action
  • within the continental US, there will be winners and losers among states, and in most cases, the losers can blame it on self-inflicted policy mistakes. States like NY will suffer due to a) bad energy policies; and, b) bad tax policy
  • California is likely to accelerate self-inflicted injuries -- add the bullet train to bad energy policies and bad tax policy
  • winners: Texas, Louisiana, Wyoming, Oklahoma, North Dakota
  • Colorado? Depends whether they take the road to California or the road to Texas 
From the linked Bloomberg article:
With “Energy Week,” Trump is returning to familiar territory -- and to the coal, oil, and gas industries on which he’s already lavished attention. Trump’s first major policy speech on the campaign trail, delivered in the oil drilling hotbed of North Dakota in 2016, focused on his plans for unleashing domestic energy production.
The issue has also been a major focus during Trump’s first five months in office, as he set in motion the reversal of an array of Obama-era policies that discourage both the production and consumption of fossil fuels.
*****************************

Yes, Sir, I Can Boogie, a factory is its people, not its bricks

Wells Coming Off Confidential List Early This Week -- Sunday, June 25, 2017

Wednesday, June 28, 2017
  • 32440, 446, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 21H, Williston, fracked on 11/20/17; small frack: 3.2 million gallons of water; 13% proppant; t1/17; cum 76K 4/17;
Tuesday, June 27, 2017
  • 31138, SI/NC, Newfield, Jorgenson Federal 148-96-10-15-4HLW, no production data,
  • 32524, SI/NC, MRO, Reno USA 24-9TFH-2B, Antelope, no production data,
  • 32918, SI/NC, XTO, Nygaard Federal 13X-5F2, no production data,
Monday, June 26, 2017
  • None.
Sunday, June 25, 2017
  • 32525, SI/NC, MRO, Kermit USA 14-9H, Antelope, no production data,
Saturday, June 24, 2017
  • 32526, SI/NC, MRO, Arden USA 14-9TFH, Antelope, no production data,
  • 32919, SI/NC, XTO, Nygaard Federal 13X-5B, no production data,
**********************************

32440, see above, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 21H, Williston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-2017113675492
3-2017188810
2-2017246570
1-201773060
12-201613540

Worth Re-Posting -- June 25, 2017

Previously posted.

Look at the production coming out of the Permian. 
Drilling horizontal sidetracks from abandoned wells in the Permian Basin is yielding a 91 percent internal rate of return on a $7 million investment and delivering 1,500 barrels a day of crude. He predicts large production increases from vertical wells in previously produced areas in the Permian.
1,500 bopd = 45,000 bbls/month -- which some Bakken wells do, but generally, initial production for Bakken wells is in the range of 15,000 to 30,000 bbls/month for the first couple of months, and then drops off significantly.

Think of the cost savings when drilling from an abandoned well:
  • site surveys have already been done; only need to be reviewed, tweaked
  • possibly, up-front lease bonuses are not required
  • roads to site are in-place; pads in place but will need to be improved
  • some infrastructure in place

OPEC Bewildered -- Bloomberg -- Sunday, June 25 2017

Active rigs:

$43.176/25/201706/25/201606/25/201506/25/201406/25/2013
Active Rigs583076193187

OPEC bewildered -- Bloomberg. There are several things to focus on while reading this story:
  • rifts in OPEC; Prince Salman may have his sights on Iraq next (Iraq and Iran becoming a bit too friendly; Iraq exempt from production cuts and seems to be taking advantage of the situation)
  • phony OPEC stories suggesting without $100 oil to finance infrastructure, oil shortages will occur
  • light, sweet oil glut in the US; OPEC does not produce light, sweet oil --not mentioned in the article
  • majority of US refineries optimized for heavy oil (Canadian oil sands - Keystone XL; Venezuela - imploding) -- not mentioned in the article
  • but this is most interesting:
OPEC has completely misjudged the North American shale industry and seems not to understand how it is still evolving rapidly. It's a little like trying to explain the internet to my 85-year-old mother, or my 12-year-old daughter trying to explain social media to me. As consultant Morten Frisch tells me, drilling horizontal sidetracks from abandoned wells in the Permian Basin is yielding a 91 percent internal rate of return on a $7 million investment and delivering 1,500 barrels a day of crude. He predicts large production increases from vertical wells in previously produced areas in the Permian.

Saturday, June 24, 2017

CLR Getting Ready To Frack The Rath Federal Wells? -- June 24, 2017

Updates

June 25, 2017: see first comment. Looks like CalFrac is on-site.

Original Post 

I noted that the one Rath Federal well that is active and producing is now off-line. There are no rigs in the area according to the NDIC map. It's possible the well was taken off-line for operational reasons, but whenever I seen a pad with several DUCs, and an active well goes off-line, I at least have to consider the possibility the operator is getting ready to frack the pad.

**************************
Glut

The US glut of crude oil is a glut of light, sweet oil. OPEC does NOT produce light, sweet oil. From a twitter post. Refineries along the US gulf coast are optimized for heavy oil, like that produced in the western Canadian oil sands (Keystone XL pipeline) and Venezuela (imploding).