Week 36: September 4, 2016 -- September 10, 2016

Of course, the big international story this past week was the decision of the Mexican government to unilaterally freeze (actually decrease) crude oil production this year in support of Saudi's cash crunch. Likewise, Iran has also frozen production, and, not much has changed in Venezuela -
another basket case which will soon join Greece, which is also back in the news. Even Saudi has cut back on production. So, it looks like OPEC is coming together on the proposed crude oil production freeze after all.

The big crude oil story in the US was the spectacular find announced by Apache -- a reservoir that could add 3 billion bbls of crude oil and 75 trillion cubic fee of natural gas to their reserves: Alpine High in west Texas.

The Apache story was only slightly bigger than the EOG story: buying Yates Petroleum and stealing the Permian for about $1,500/acre. Enbridge wants to buy Spectra but the regulators won't like this proposal either (at the same EOG-Yates link).

Serious talk on Wall Street that the Fed might actually, possibly, maybe, but who knows, raise "the rate" a quarter of a percent sent the US stock market into a tailspin unlike anything we've seen in, oh, maybe ten days. Meanwhile, the rest of the western world continues to lower their central bank lending rates and are now in negative territory, which Japan is now re-thinking -- maybe not such a good idea.

Most interesting was the killing of the DAPL, which now joins the Keystone XL and the Sandpiper making it a trifecta. Now that this is over, the North Dakota Native Americans at Standing Rock can go back to what they were doing before they were so rudely interrupted by the sound of progress. The good news is that North Dakota will most likely approve a 3.4-mile Alexander Connector pipeline which will move 100,000 bopd to a Montana terminal. (Again, that's less than four miles long, so hopefully the Obama administration won't step in.) Killing the DAPL is simply a political statement with little relevance: there is excess CBR capacity and operators like CLR already have enough pipeline to ship the crude oil they produce. Welders and investors will be primarily inconvenienced, neither of which are found on Indian Reservations.

By the way, the FAA still bans passengers from taking more than three ounces of fluid when flying commercially, but allows those same passengers to take their Samsung Galaxy Note 7 devices on board and even using them, although they advise flyers not to use them -- these devices are well known to explode. Sort of like MuskMelon's Tesla. And his SpaceX Falcon 9. Samsung has recalled every last Galaxy Note 7 but FAA bureaucrats are often the last to get the news.

Speaking of spontaneous combustion, we have some good news: atmospheric CO2 has dropped for the second month in a row; it now stands at 402. At 400 ppm, the earth had been expected by some to spontaneously combust although it felt pretty hot in north Texas this past week. 

Operations
On a single day, nine permits expired
On a single day, twenty-eight (28) permits renewed
The number of active rigs in North Dakota jumped 

CLR's Rath Federal extended long laterals are now being reported
The Oasis Andersmadson wells are huge 
Newfield's Jorgenson Federal wells are huge

Fracking
Mike Filloon had another update on Bakken mega-fracks 

Pipelines
DAPL killed; see narrative above

Miscellaneous
Corn, wheat crops are at record production levels; nothing like a little global warming and a bit more atmospheric CO2 to make things really take off
California utility Sempra buy's Mexico's largest wind farm
Stony Creek Rail Yard has about 1,000 wind tower components to build-out the Lindahl 75-wind turbine farm north of Tioga, Williams County, east of Williston
Record-tying earthquake in Oklahoma was outside the STACK/SCOOP

Mexico Agrees To Unilateral Freeze Ahead Of OPEC's September Meeting -- September 9, 2016

Updates

September 14, 2016: Pemex discovers six (6) new crude oil deposits in the Gulf of Mexico. Not much really said. 

Original Post

 

Wow, this is amazing. From Platts, data points (numbers rounded):

• Mexico's 2017 budget: will slash their state oil company's budget  
• the Pemex budget will be slashed by $5 billion to $21 billion
• production in 2017 will go to lowest production since its peak in 2004 -- that's more than a decade ago
• 2004 production: 3.4 million bopd
• 2017, projected production: 1.93 million bopd
• Pemex's crude oil production has now fallen for 11 straight years
• reforms/targets set in 2013 / 2014 -- now seem distant (and unlikely)
• one quote: Mexico is "killing the goose that lays the golden eggs"

This is not good news for the people of Mexico and not good news for Texas ranchers trying to stop the influx of Mexican immigrants across their land. Not only is Mexico exporting less oil, they are getting a much smaller return on their product: a double whammy. My hunch: by 2018, we will see huge fiscal problems for Mexico.

Venezuela is close to becoming a net importer of oil (if it isn't already). Iran's crude oil production growth has stagnated, we were told today. And now Mexico. What reason would Saudi Arabia and Russia have to agree to a freeze now? All their competitors, including the US, are doing it unilaterally.

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DAPL And Standing Rock

Let's Just Kiss and Say Goodbye, The Manhattans

Three New Permits; Nine Permits Expire; WPX Renews Five Permits; New Posts At Million Dollar Way May Decrease In Frequency -- September 9, 2016

Annual vacation being contemplated. Plans change from day-to-day.

Having said that, let's continue.

Active rigs, I see we still have 37 / 73 rigs (37 being the 12th prime, and 73 being the 21st prime, and so much more):

	9/9/2016	09/09/2015	09/09/2014	09/09/2013	09/09/2012
Active Rigs	37	73	198	185	191

Three new permits:

• Operator: Crescent Point Energy
• Field: Ellisville (Williams)
• Comments:

Eleven wells came off the confidential list today; two were reported earlier (an Oasis Andersmadson well and an XTO TAT State Federal). The other nine, today, were all permits that had expired, something I seldom see. The follow operators all let permits expire:

• Cornerstone: 1
• MRO: 2
• Slawson: 2
• Mountain Divide: 1
• Newfield: 3

On the other hand, five permits were renewed, all by WPX:

• WPX (5): five Rachel Wolf wells in McKenzie County

One producing well completed:

• 25199, 2,928, BR, Merton 21-15MBH, North Fork, t8/16; cum --

Iranian Oil Output Stagnates; GDPNow -- 3Q16 At 3.3% In Latest Forecast -- Friday, September 9, 2016

Iran Output Stagnates

From Reuters:

Iran's steep oil output growth has stalled in the past three months suggesting Tehran might be struggling to fulfill its plans to raise production to new highs while demanding to be excluded from any OPEC deals on supply curbs.

Iran's oil output soared to 3.64 million barrels per day in June from an average of 2.84 million bpd in 2015 following the easing of Western sanctions on Tehran in January. 

But since June, output has stagnated and reached just 3.63 million bpd in August.

Unless I missed it, the article does not say why Iranian output stagnated. But it fits my view that there's more to the oil patch than just "saying you're going to do something."

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GDP Now

Latest forecast: 3.3 percent — September 9, 2016

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2016 is 3.3 percent on September 9, down from 3.5 percent on September 2.

The forecasts of third-quarter real consumer spending growth and real equipment investment growth declined from 3.5 percent to 3.4 percent and from 3.3 percent to 2.0 percent, respectively, on Tuesday after the motor vehicle sales release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business.

The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 0.62 percentage points to 0.57 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.

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Valiant Ambition: George Washington, Benedict Arnold, and the Fate of the American Revolution

Nathaniel Philbrick

c. 2016

DDS: 973.4 PHI

The waterways along the East Coast played a major role, a subject well suited for Nathaniel Philbrick. A key to understanding the Revolution War -- the war itself -- is the role water played for moving troops quickly.

In this book, Philbrick will cover the two "fronts" in the Revolutionary War: the shooting war between George Washington's troops and William Howe's troops; and, the non-shooting civil war among squabbling colonists

Chapter 1:

• spring of 1776
• March, 1776: British abandon Boston, after a 9-month seige
• May, 1776: Continental Congress commissions Charles Willson Peale to paint Geo Washington's portrait
• June, 1776: George Washington has established his army's headquarters in NYC
• August 5, 1775: British General Clinton joins them; he had recently been defeated at Charleston, SC
• important landmarks

• New York City and New Jersey
• Sandy Hook: barrier beach; last landing before ships sail north, through "the Narrows"
• the Narrows: a chokepoint -- between Brooklyn (western end of Long Island) and Staten Island that ships must sail through to reach Port of New York, south Manhattan; the Narrows opens up into the Upper Bay
• Upper Bay: northern opening just north of the Narrows; Ellis Island; Governor's Island
• Ellis Island, smaller of the two, to the west; Governor's Island, larger of the two, to the east
• Hudson River, up the west side of Manhattan
• East River, up the east side of Manhattan

• recent history:

• three months earlier (in March) British General William Howe had abandoned Boston with 9,000 soldiers; George Washington had set up cannon on Dorchester Heights overnight, March 4, 1776; General William Howe evacuates to Halifax, Nova Scotia; again, using the sea (waterways) -- provided quick movement whereas land impeded movement; re-armed in Nova Scotia; heads back to NY
• brothers Richard and William had an older brother George who had been killed in the French and Indian War; had "soft spot" in their hearts for the colonists; hoped war could be avoided; declaration of independence, 1776, had ended all hopes of a peaceful resolution

• contemporary events:

• June 27, 1776: British Navy seen on open sea, arriving
• middle of August, 1776: 400 vessels; 45,000 soldiers and sailors
• William Howe, Army general; when British military returns from Nova Scotia to attack NY, the British Navy is under command of William's older brother: Admiral Richard Howe; another British Army General on those ships, General Henry Clinton; so two British Army generals, staging at Sandy Hook before moving through the Narrows to New York harbor: General William Howe and General Henry Clinton
• late August, 1776: British unload 15,000 soldiers at Gravesend Bay, far south Brooklyn; far west Long Island
• Washington appoints General Israel Putnam of Connecticut to take charge of troops in Brooklyn
• American defense at Wallabout Bay; three easily defended passes
• British attack; American General William Alexander, Scottish, defends
• but the Brits took a fourth pass: Jamaica Pass -- far to the east -- that the colonists had forgotten about; huge lapse in judgement

• the evacuation from Brooklyn, across the East River (overnight, August 29 - 30, 1776)

• the Brits are in command of Brooklyn; will eventually take Fort Putnam and secure the island
• Geo Washington had no option: evacuate, but make it look like he was going to replenish his troops
• huge, huge story: evacuation began where base of Brooklyn Bridge now is

the reason NYC strategically important

• Brits in St Johns (present day, Quebec), planning an assault on Fort Ticonderoga on Lake Champlain
• Hudson River to Albany and then to For Ticonderoga
• if Brits control New Jersey "sea" up the Hudson all the way to Lake Champlain, the Brits have cut "America" in half

• Washington evacuates NYC

• controls the Hudson 14 miles north of NYC from Harlem Heights 
• Admiral Howe moves north of Brooklyn, to Queens County, still on Long Island
• Chapter 1 ends with the Brits taking NYC; Geo Washington severely beat; and retreating across New Jersey to the Delaware River

North Dakota National Guard Activated -- September 9, 2016

That huge drop in crude oil stocks? Never mind. It was a one-off.

The Energy Information Administration said on Thursday that commercial crude oil inventories fell by 14.5 million barrels. Analysts had expected a build in inventories by 0.225 million barrels. The drop was the largest dating back to 1999.

"This was primarily due to Hurricane Hermine which prevented ships docking in the Gulf of Mexico. As such we think that last week's plunge in imports and stocks is likely to be a one-off. In fact, stocks will probably rebound sharply this week as those tankers which were prevented from unloading last week unload."

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Where the Deer and the Antelope Play

Updates

Later, 10:31 p.m. Central Time: Keystoned! Link here. 

Original Post

North Dakota National Guard activated. Does the governor know something we don't know? By the way, speaking of the Dakota, has anyone noted that no bones (animal or human remains) have been found where the Standing Rock protesters say the pipeline is going through a sacred burial ground? It turns out there's an explanation, as reported on CBS Evening News the other night (a reader provided the update; I never, ever watch CBS Evening News):

Native Americans consider all land in any watershed "sacred." Before the white man decimated the huge herds of American Bison bison bison, Native Americans, I am not making this up, used the hills and buttes along any creek or river to search for game (where the deer and the antelope play) and to hold religious services, sort of like our mega-churches in Texas. Apparently, like the "three-mile international water rule, " Native Americans claim a three-mile riparian zone on either side of all waterways from the Little Muddy to the Mississippi Delta. 

The US Corps of Army Engineers might question that claim. But it's tough to take on a sovereign nation.

Meanwhile, President Obama has decided not to enter this fight. Apparently not standing by his base.

Stand By Me, The Drifters

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Early Frost In The Bakken?

Early frost? I don't know if this is early or not, but when growing up in Williston, the first significant frost did not occur until Halloween, on/about October 31. When one had on a flimsy pirate costume, one remembers those freezing nights. But apparently, frost / freeze is forecast next Tuesday morning, September 13, by the local meteorologists. If there is a freeze that early this year, it may be due to the precipitous drop in atmospheric CO2 this summer.
 

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Here We Go Again

North Korea and nukes.

ISIS.

Venezuela.

The Mideast.

Apple and Ireland.

And now, here we go again: pressure back on Greece.

Greece is struggling to deliver on fresh reforms that are needed to unlock a further 2.8 billion euros ($3 billion) in bailout loans and more crucially, launch negotiations on debt relief later in the year.

Athens has committed to deliver on the refroms by the end of the month. They include the long delayed launch of a massive privatisation fund and reforms in the highly sensitive energy sector.

The influential German Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, said Greece still had a short period of time to get back in line on its 86 billion euro bailout programme, bitterly agreed in July 2015.

"The pressure is back on. We really need some progress. The summer is over, pack up the camping gear," Dijsselbloem, who leads the group of 19 finance ministers from the eurozone, told reporters in Bratislava.

Man, I'm glad I don't watch CNBC. Greece will obviously be front and center for the next six months. And so it goes.

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 Hands Off

SpaceX takes the lead in investigating its own explosion.

The FAA has a single vote with SpaceX having all remaining votes.

The structure and operation of the investigative group, according to the officials, reflect strict legislative restrictions on the role of federal agencies in accidents involving purely commercial space ventures.

Congress approved legislation last year reiterating that the FAA, which licenses all space launches, should take a largely hands-off approach when it comes to regulating the burgeoning commercial space industry, particularly fledgling space-tourism ventures. Lawmakers mandated the agency to focus primarily on protecting people and property on the ground, rather than ensuring the safety of passengers or crews during flights.

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Active rigs:

	9/9/2016	09/09/2015	09/09/2014	09/09/2013	09/09/2012
Active Rigs	37	73	198	185	191

RBN Energy: oil-weighted E&Ps have put the brakes on CAPEX cuts, but location matters.

The group of 21 liquids-focused exploration and production companies we have been tracking plans to cut capital expenditures by half in 2016, after a 42% decline in 2015. However, capex for this “oil-weighted” E&P peer group is apparently bottoming out—their mid-year guidance was only 2% lower than their original 2016 estimates. Even with deep cuts in capital spending, the group expects production to fall only 7% in 2016, and those estimates have been revised higher from the initial 2016 guidance.  Also worth noting: Pure Permian Basin players, the most optimistic companies in the peer group, are cutting capital spending by only 19% and are expecting a 12% gain in production.  And with Apache Corp.’s announcement earlier this week of a huge discovery in the Permian’s Southern Delaware Basin, the market is definitely making a turn. Today we discuss 2016 capex and production for a representative group of E&P companies whose proved reserves are more than 60% liquids.

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Aleppo, Per The New York Times

New York Times, first story: Aleppo is the self-proclaimed ISIS capital. Wrong.

New York Times, second story: Aleppo is the capital of Syria. Also wrong.

New York Times, third story: Libertarian candidate, Gary Johnson, said he did not know "what" Aleppo was. I'm not sure if The New York Times ever did say "what" Aleppo" was. As every school child know, Aleppo is a famous dog food brand.

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Whiting Lays Off 100 Employees In Texas

Link here. 

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The Market

Mid-day: the market is down 235 points. Once the computer algorithms kick in, it is free-fall until circuit breakers applied. This all started, they say, because it looks like the Fed might raise rates a quarter of a percent in September. NYSE:

• new highs: 17
• new lows: 13

Opening: down 160 points in early morning trading. NYSE:

• new highs: 8
• new lows: 5

Futures: we haven't had a brutal day in the market for quite awhile but it looks a bit bleak today. Futures are pointing to a pretty "negative" market.