Random Update: Crude Oil Production In The Larger Bakken Fields In North Dakota, December, 2015/November, 2015 Data

Note: there will be typographical and factual errors on this page. I have double-checked some of the figures where they seemed "out of the ordinary" and in some cases I find an error (which was corrected) and in other cases, no error. In general, I think the numbers are pretty accurate.

This information is available at: https://www.dmr.nd.gov/oilgas/mprindex.asp. 

The data is taken from the November, 2015, and December, 2016, crude oil production numbers from the NDIC's monthly statistics. I have arranged them based on December production (descending). I think the table is self explanatory. The sixth column (percent change, from October, 2015, to November, 2015) cannot be verified with the data below because October, 2015, data is not shown.

The last column, "percent change" is the percent change from November, 2015, to December, 2015.

I think one of the most interesting data points to note is checking the number of producing wells in those cases in which there is a significant increase or decrease in production month-over-month.

This page is still in progress.

Field	Pool	November 2015	Nov Wells	November  Oil/Well/Month	Percent Change	December 2015	Dec Wells	December  Oil/Well/Month	Percent Change
Sanish	Bakken	1,634,833	595	2,748	-2.00	1,558,779	594	2,624	-4.65%
Parshall	Bakken	1,216,024	412	2,952	-6.85	1,189,523	417	2,853	-2.18%
Antelope	Sanish	899,713	154	5,842	18.34	942,611	157	6,004	4.77%
Alger	Bakken	810,710	305	2,658	-0.04	836,717	305	2,743	3.21%
Blue Buttes	Bakken	827,039	133	6,218	-7.88	790,622	133	5,945	-4.40%
Grail	Bakken	890,762	159	5,602	-13.80	760,765	159	4,785	-14.59%
Siverston	Bakken	676,624	209	3,237	-11.72	730,950	213	3,432	8.03%
Corral Creek	Bakken	655,147	134	4,889	-8.56	722,677	140	5,162	10.31%
Reunion Bay	Bakken	697,938	144	4,847	-6.23	703,872	149	4,724	0.85%
Van Hook	Bakken	630,274	181	3,482	-0.49	697,982	181	3,856	10.74%
Banks	Bakken	641,165	166	3,862	2.28	680,867	166	4,102	6.19%
Alkali Creek	Bakken	643,387	129	4,987	9.39	663,364	134	4,950	3.10%
Heart Butte	Bakken	676,313	168	4,026	-0.32	617,786	170	3,634	-8.65%
Truax	Bakken	530,775	159	3,338	3.67	567,821	163	3,484	6.98%
East Fork	Bakken	400,812	92	4,357	16.94	496,022	96	5,167	23.75%
Big Bend	Bakken	425,157	113	3,762	-6.50	438,105	113	3,877	3.05%
Little Knife	Bakken	371,005	135	2,748	6.64	409,603	137	2,990	10.40%
Robinson Lake	Bakken	507,624	163	3,114	-7.85	396,752	163	2,434	-21.84%
Eagle Nest	Bakken	399,202	77	5,184	15.04	394,563	77	5,124	-1.16%
Sand Creek	Bakken	413,068	74	5,582	28.14	390,332	74	5,275	-5.50%
Bailey	Bakken	387,829	145	2,675	-6.89	388,091	145	2,676	0.07%
Brooklyn	Bakken	390,347	78	5,004	14.56	386,728	79	4,895	-0.93%
Charlson	Bakken	353,647	105	3,368	2.71	371,561	105	3,539	5.07%
McGregory Buttes	Bakken	323,629	81	3,995	-8.50	369,742	82	4,509	14.25%
Murphy Creek	Bakken	376,647	205	1,837	-2.46	364,938	205	1,780	-3.11%
Mandaree	Bakken	265,434	74	3,587	-9.84	357,646	77	4,645	34.74%
Spotted Horn	Bakken	384,166	66	5,821	-10.35	354,969	66	5,378	-7.60%
Westberg	Bakken	361,582	88	4,109	-14.70	350,361	88	3,981	-3.10%
Camel Butte	Bakken	295,491	34	8,691	101.87	348,454	34	10,249	17.92%
Hawkeye	Bakken	315,661	94	3,358	-18.19	335,653	94	3,571	6.33%
Camp	Bakken	306,634	115	2,666	-0.72	321,348	115	2,794	4.80%
Cedar Hills	North Red River B	282,240	117	2,412	-3.44	284,369	117	2,431	0.75%
Poe	Bakken	285,858	83	3,444	-8.77	278,413	83	3,354	-2.60%
Elidah	Bakken	274,034	53	5,170	-12.76	276,592	53	5,219	0.93%
Pershing	Bakken	182,274	39	4,674	107.04	264,899	39	6,792	45.33%
Lost Bridge	Bakken	266,023	52	5,116	1.70	262,393	53	4,951	-1.36%
Stockyard Creek	Bakken	243,810	72	3,386	-6.44	259,031	72	3,598	6.24%
Dollar Joe	Bakken	225,753	93	2,427	5.58	249,070	93	2,678	10.33%
Baker	Bakken	236,338	61	3,874	0.61	245,310	64	3,833	3.80%
Moccasin Creek	Bakken	261,722	57	4,592	-4.36	244,181	57	4,284	-6.70%
Chimney Butte	Bakken	233,018	73	3,192	1.30	241,548	73	3,309	3.66%
Clear Creek	Bakken	236,326	74	3,194	-5.57	239,975	74	3,243	1.54%
Cedar Hills	South Red River B	226,348	148	1,529	-3.34	234,265	150	1,562	3.50%
Keene	Bakken/Three Forks	205,649	50	4,113	-5.85	230,590	50	4,612	12.13%
Long Creek	Bakken	210,085	27	7,781	0.80	224,394	27	8,311	6.81%
North Tobacco Garden	Bakken	146,600	42	3,490	-19.77	215,393	42	5,128	46.93%
Crazy Man Creek	Bakken	242,356	44	5,508	0.43	209,135	44	4,753	-13.71%
Tyrone	Bakken	157,519	55	2,864	-1.30	203,864	56	3,640	29.42%
Todd	Bakken	207,891	56	3,712	18.24	202,878	56	3,623	-2.41%
Bear Den	Bakken	178,945	42	4,261	1.06	199,990	41	4,878	11.76%
Beaver Lodge	Bakken	188,218	69	2,728	20.76	199,467	72	2,770	5.98%

Random Update Of Completed DUCs from 3Q15

I'm still trying to get a handle on whether DUCs are such a big deal or not. I really don't know. I struggled with that question back in December.

Last night, I updated the wells that came off the confidential list in 4Q15. One can scroll through that list and see how many wells are still SI/NC (DUCs).

This morning, I updated the DUCs that came off the confidential list in 3Q15. One can scroll through that list and see how many wells are still SI/NC (DUCs).

Since the last update (and I don't recall when that update was done), these are the DUCs that have been completed (I may have missed a few but, if so, I will pick them up next time):


30884, 1,097, XTO, Sorenson 31X-28G, Siverston, t12/15; cum 2K 4 days;
30682, 841, MRO, Bingo 24-10TFH, Reunion Bay, t1/16; cum 1K 2 days;
30681, 1,827, MRO, Marjorie 14-10H, Reunion Bay, t12/15; cum 14K 24 days;
29797, 2,084, BR, Morgan 24-21MBH, Pershing, t12/15; cum 15K 7 days
29796, 1,723, BR, Kirkland 24-21MBH, Pershing, no production data, t12/15; cum 16K 21 days;
29780, 745, Abraxas, Ravin 8H, North Fork, t11/15; cum 24K 46 days;
29795, 1,283, BR, Morgan 24-21TFH, Pershing, t1/16; cum 1K 38 days;
29779, 833, Abraxas, Sten-Rav 1H, North Fork, t11/15; cum 31K 12/15;
29579, 1,270, XTO, Satter 31X-1CXD, Sivertson, t12/15; cum 4K 8 days;
29990, 686, Abraxas, Stenehjem 5H, North Fork, t11/15; cum 28K 12/15;
29578, 1,479, XTO, Satter 31X-1G2, Sivertson, t12/15; cum 8K 12 days;
30453, 841, Hess, EN-D Cvancara S-154-93-0904H-9, Robinson Lake, t8/15; cum 50K half-months only;
30718, 1,030, Hess, EN-D Cvancara S-154-93-0904H-8, Robinson Lake, t9/15; cum 61K 12/15;
30787, 1,592, XTO, Rita 44X-34CXD, Tobacco Garden, t12/15; cum 4K 5 days;
30940, 2,405, BR, CCU Bison Point 34-34MBH, Corral Creek, t12/15; cum 7K 10 days;
30697, 2,044, MRO, Mikkelsen 11-14H, Reunion Bay, t12/15; cum 21K 21 days;
29389, 1,045, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14G, Bear Den, t10/15; cum 3K 4 days; no production last two months
29390, 1,067, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14C,  Bear Den, t10/15; cum 10k 15 days over three months;
29392, 614, XTO, Johnsrud Federal 34X-14D, Bear Den, t11/15; cum 9K 10 days over three months;
29433, 1,464b cum 23K 14 days over 2 months;
29517, 2,669, BR, LaCanyon 8-8-34MBH ULW, Blue Buttes, t8/15; cum 51K 12/15;
29577, 1,290, XTO, Satter 31X-1D, Siverston, t12/15; cum 1K 4 days;
29494, 274, XTO, Rita 44X-34H, Tobacco Garden, t1/16; no production data,
29493, 1,489, XTO, Rita 44X-34BXC, Tobacco Garden, t1/16; no production data, 
26774, 419, Zavanna, Double Down 24-13 4TFH, East Fork, t1/16; cum --  
26773, 687, Zavanna, Double Down 24-13 3TFH, East Fork, t1/16; cum 11 bbls 3 days
30454, 1,516, Statoil, Panzer 22-23 6H, Alger, t1/16; no production data,
29875, 1,483, BR, Morgan 41-28TFH ULW, Johnson Corner, t11/15; cum 19K 21 days over 2 months;
26772, 2,058, Zavanna, Double Down 24-13 2H, East Fork, t1/16; cum --
30455, 660, Statoil, Panzer 22-23 7TFH, Alger, t1/16; no production data,
29874, 2,004, BR, Morgan 41-28MBH, Pershing, t12/15; cum 19K 15 days over 2 months;
30361, 1,239, CLR, Patterson Federal 6-13H, Camp, t1/16; cum 647 bbls 3 days over 4 months
30057, 499b cum 6K 18 days;
29962, 142, SHD, Magnum 36-11-TF2, Clarks Creek, t11/15; cum 9K 42 days over 3 months
30056, 357, SM Energy, Jessica 3B-26HN, West Ambrose, t12/15; cum 5K 18 days
30055, 508, SM Energy, Ashley 3-26HS, West Ambrose, t12/15; cum 11K 27 days over 2 months;
30054, 281, SM Energy, Rilye 3B-26HS, West Ambrose, t12/15; cum 6K 18 days;        

Trends:

• even though these wells have been completed, look at how few days they have been on-line; they are completed and then "shut in" for many days each month 
• pad drilling
• big names like EOG, Statoil, not often seen 

Week 7: February 14, 2016 -- February 20, 2016

For me, without question, unfortunately, the top "story" this past week was learning that Bakken crude oil was selling for $16 / bbl. That's 38 cents a gallon. What does a gallon of milk cost. With oil so cheap, why is gasoline still (relatively) so expensive? Venezuela raised the price of gasoline to 15 cents/gallon from one-tenth of a penny per gallon, the previous day.

The real top story, however, might be the fact that Watford City's new high school opened last week, a $53 million project. Wow.

Operations
38 active rigs; is this the low?
Although daily production down slightly, ND crude oil production in December exceeded previous month

Pipelines
Is the Enbridge Sandpiper pipeline dead?

DUCs
Random update of completed DUCs in 4Q15 since previous update 
Fracklog at 945, down slightly

Refinery operations
Calumet has completed its expansion at Great Falls
MDU and Calumet regarding the Dickinson refinery (same link)

Bakken economy
Watford City's new high school opens
Update on mandated closure of man-camps
Renaissance On Main nearing completion
Free tuition for WSC students extended to four area county high school graduates  

Miscellenous
Crude oil build and increasing gasoline demand 
The crude oil build and the pricing of Bakken oil 
US gasoline stocks surge  

Ramblings On A Saturday Morning -- Sort Of About The Bakken -- February 20, 2016

Updates

March 19, 2016: in the original post below I give a fair amount of space to the announcement that Carrier (the HVAC company) is moving to Mexico, lock, stock, and barrel, -- or should I say, and air conditioner? Whatever. Today in The New York Times a look at the personal pain this move is causing. There's a simple fix for this and it doesn't involve tariffs, but if I can think of if, so can the best and the brightest at Foggy Bottom and the Commerce Department.
 

Original Post

 

I'll get this off my chest and then get back to what I had planned to do. Yesterday I linked a pretty good Chicago Tribune article with regard to what the headline writer called the "Bakken bust."

Having just visited the Bakken I was able to see firsthand how little "visible" activity there was. What is not being reported is the incredible amount of infrastructure that is now in place. Folks, I think, forget, (I certainly do) that the US still imports 5 million bopd. The shale oil in Texas, Oklahoma, and North Dakota is not going to go away (except that amount being lifted to the surface).

From what little I know about the oil and gas industry it looks like the only other major US source of oil is federal Gulf of Mexico oil which will hit record production in 2017. So, just how much oil are we talking about? I assume it's a gazillion bopd that will end on-shore drilling as we know it. So, let's look. From the EIA two days ago:

U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GOM) crude oil production is estimated to increase to record high levels in 2017, even as oil prices remain low.

EIA projects GOM production will average 1.63 million bopd in 2016 and 1.79 million bopd in 2017, reaching 1.91 million b/d in December 2017. GOM production is expected to account for 18% and 21% of total forecast U.S. crude oil production in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

Production in the GOM is less sensitive than onshore production in the Lower 48 states to short-term price movements. However, decreasing profit margins and reduced expectations for a quick oil price recovery have prompted many GOM operators to pull back on future deepwater exploration spending, reduce their active rig fleet by scrapping and stacking older rigs, and restructure or delay drilling rig contracts. These changes added uncertainty to the timelines of many GOM projects, with those in the early stages of development at greatest risk of delay or cancellation.

What? Less than 2 million bopd by the end of 2017. Under incredibly adverse pricing conditions right now, the Bakken is producing 1 million bopd from an area smaller than my little finger compared to the size of the US Gulf of Mexico. Seriously. Bakken operators have dropped from 200 rigs to 40 rigs, and they have limited drilling to a couple of areas around Williston and Watford City, and they are still producing one million bopd. If the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move toward 2 million bopd by the end of 2017, I would assume something similar in the Bakken. It appears that in both the Bakken and the GOM the costs have been "sunk" as they say. Now it's simply a matter of managing production. 

Much more could be written, but time to move to the second issue.

As noted above, the oil isn't going anywhere. There are something like 13,000 wells that need to be managed in North Dakota, all of them within a couple of hours driving time from Williston, Tioga, and Watford City. Those 13,000 wells will require a minimum workforce to maintain those wells. Fracking of DUCs continues and that will require a minimum workforce, and it's hard to imagine there being no active rigs in the Bakken. One cannot outsource drilling Bakken oil to Mexico. One cannot move the Bakken shale to south of the border where it can be drilled more cheaply. The Bakken is the largest continuous reservoir of oil ever discovered in the lower 48 and it isn't going anywhere.

But elsewhere, there is a real "bust" going on and those are the jobs in the heartland of America that are being moved to Mexico. The other day I mentioned that the air conditioning company Carrier was leaving Indiana -- completely leaving Indiana -- to move to Mexico. I was unaware that a second company in Indiana was doing the same thing. Along with Carrier, the company that provides microprocessor-based controls for the HVAC and refrigeration industries for Carrier, will be moving to Mexico:

In a move guaranteeing that 2,100 workers will be out of a job, two Indiana plants have plans to move operations to Mexico.

The companies, who make products for heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC), will begin layoffs within the next two years.

Carrier Corp. said it would shutter its Indianapolis plant employing 1,400 workers and move its manufacturing to Mexico. The plant's workers would be laid off over three years starting in 2017.

United Technologies Electronic Controls (UTEC) also announced Wednesday that it will move its Huntington manufacturing operations to a new plant in Mexico, costing the northeastern Indiana city 700 jobs by 2018. Those workers make microprocessor-based controls for the HVAC and refrigeration industries.

Carrier Corp. and UTEC are both units of Hartford, Connecticut-based United Technologies Corp.

Carrier's president of North American HVAC systems and services, Chris Nelson, said the company is closing the Indianapolis plant in response to "the continued migration of the HVAC industry to Mexico." He said that migration has included the company's suppliers and competitors.

United Steelworkers president Chuck Jones said Carrier's move is disgraceful considering that it has been in Indianapolis since the early 1950s. He said the 1,400 affected workers are scared.

Based on that article, it sounds like the entire American HVAC industry is moving to Mexico: "the continued migration of the HVAC industry to Mexico."

Again, ObamaCare was not mentioned in the article.

It is likely that we may see more jobs moving to Mexico even as some American jobs are returning to the US from China. This may be completely unrelated, but it should be noted that over the past ten years the US has been improving the infrastructure required to get energy (natural gas) to Mexico. With adequate (and inexpensive) energy in Mexico, the country will be able to increase its manufacturing capacity.

The best way to encourage Mexicans not to cross the US border illegally is to provide them jobs in their own country. It looks like Carrier and UTEC are doing just that since the politicians refuse to address the issue. 

Oh, by the way, back to the EIA article on "record" production forecast for the Gulf of Mexico by the end of 2017. Here's the graph (color me very, very unimpressed). The record production might be 100,000 bopd more than what it was in 2009 before the Obama administration .... don't get me started ... if that's what the EIA is banking on going forward, I'm not worried about the Bakken in the long term.

If it reaches a "record high" in 2017, does that suggest production could level off after that, perhaps decrease, because of all the canceled / deferred deep-sea projects.

By the way, I've searched the web and can find no stories telling us where President Obama is today. On a day when so much is happening (South Carolina, Nevada, a funeral, just for starters) it is interesting that the president cannot be located. Doubly interesting considering his narcissism.