Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Alaska Pipeline Viability -- September 29, 2015

I am posting a note here, but I follow the bigger story chronologically at this post. The AP is reporting:
Royal Dutch Shell's dry hole in the Chukchi Sea may be disappointing to shareholders, but it's potentially devastating to Alaska.
The company's decision to end oil exploration in offshore Alaska for the foreseeable future means the state must find another source to fill the 800-mile trans-Alaska pipeline and solve its economic woes, Gov. Bill Walker said.
"We need to get some oil in the pipeline, and we need to do it as quickly as possible and in the safest method possible," Walker said. He is suggesting the federal government open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to natural gas drilling.
The petroleum industry funds upward of 90 percent of state government. Declining oil production and low prices have left Alaska with a billion-dollar budget gap, and state leaders saw rays of hope in Shell's offshore prospects.
Confirmation of the estimated 15 billion barrels in the Chukchi lease area could have led to additional exploration by other leaseholders. And a transition to production — though a decade or more off — would have meant jobs, potential revenue and a source to replenish the trans-Alaska pipeline, now running less than one-quarter full.
Viability of the pipeline based on throughput. Here's a nice article suggesting there's a long way to go before Alaskans have to worry about that. The pipeline carried 2 million bopd at its max; down to around 650,000 bopd now; originally the minimum was felt to be in the 350,000 bopd range, but now folks think one could get down to as low as 100,000 bopd and the pipe throughput could still be maintained.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Active rigs:


9/29/201509/29/201409/29/201309/29/201209/29/2011
Active Rigs70186184190196

RBN Energy: When did US crude oil production start to decline?
A question we get asked all the time these days is whether or not U.S. crude output has begun to decline yet and if so by how much? We don’t actually think the answer makes a lot of difference to the market - especially when you consider changing imports and inventory. But ever since the OPEC meeting last November (2014) failed to take action to reduce  output to support oil prices - market watchers have placed a lot of emphasis on when U.S. shale producers would respond by cutting production. So regardless of the merits of the question we are all living in a marketplace where knowing the “real” state of U.S. production – and whether it is up or down – has become a big deal. To that end today we look at crude production data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The EIA makes a number of estimates of crude oil production for its various weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual publications. We will take a look at three of them today. The first of these is likely the most reliable – namely the EIA monthly crude balance production data. That monthly data is reliable in part because it is published at least three months in arrears (the latest report is for June 2015). And the monthly data just got a little more reliable this summer when EIA changed their collection approach to gather more data direct from producers rather than relying on data published by State agencies and to include more individual states into their data breakdown.  The better quality of data in the monthly numbers will certainly help EIA improve their reporting of crude oil production.   The big disadvantage of the monthly EIA data for the market is that 3-month lag – which no one used to care about when production just went up every month - but is now a big deal with the eyes of the market looking for turning points. For the record EIA monthly data shows total U.S. crude domestic production topping out in April 2015 at 9.6 MMb/d and then declining by 200 Mb/d in May and a further 100 Mb/d in June 2015.
**********************************
Adult Leadership In The War On Terror

Putin's UN speech yesterday was perhaps the most accurate, succinct assessment regarding Syria, Iraq, Iran and ISIS. The most interesting thing about the link: it comes from CNBC. (At the link, scroll to the September 29, 2015, entry.) It is very concerning how often President Obama is cited in the wiki post on Arab Spring. A google search (Arab Spring Obama) is much more enlightening.

******************************
Not So Fast

I was wrong. I stated earlier that the workers would accept the tentative Fiat Chrysler four-year contract. Apparently not. Early voting suggests the workers are unhappy with 10% raises, bringing their hourly pay to almost $55/hour.


**************************
Tesla Ready To Launch

From The Wall Street Journal:
Kenneth Adelman has had to learn to be patient. An electric-car enthusiast and retired “computer geek,” in February 2012 he was the first person to plunk down a $40,000 deposit for Tesla Motors Inc. ’s Model X sport-utility vehicle. At the time, Mr. Adelman didn’t know the Model X’s total price, but Chief Executive Elon Musk said the vehicle would be in his hands by the end of 2013.
He is still waiting. After nearly two years’ worth of delays, Tesla kicks off Model X deliveries Tuesday. Although first on the order list, Mr. Adelman, 52 years old, doesn’t know when he will get his vehicle and he is showing little concern.
“I’m happy to have waited for the X to be all that it could be,” Mr. Adelman, who also owns a Tesla Roadster and Model S sedan, said in a recent interview. He is confident the vehicle is a “home run.”
Topping out at $132,000, the Model X will test the Silicon Valley electric-vehicle company’s ability to preserve momentum that has been largely unaffected by low gasoline prices and turbulence in emerging markets. Tesla is banking on the new vehicle to help it to achieve sales of at least 50,000 vehicle in 2015 and 500,000 by 2020.
Initial demand looks strong. Tesla has booked roughly 30,000 reservations for the vehicle, according to reservation data shared by buyers and on Tesla fan forums. A small number of those have been cancelled, but the order book can be considered hefty when compared with the 21,537 Model S sedans the company sold globally in the first six months of 2015.
It would have been interesting to know Kenneth's net worth.

It appears the "space issue" might be the most interesting aspect of the launch.
But there is still potential for a letdown.
A big selling feature for the Model X is its large storage area and family-friendly size. When Mr. Musk first showed the prototype, he touted the option to fold the second and third rows of seats down to make room. Free of an engine or transmission, it has more interior space than a standard SUV.
But Mr. Musk has talked about the difficulty of designing the second-row seats on several occasions and has hinted that the seats were one reason why the Model X was delayed, leading to speculation the second row may not fold flat based on images the company has shown.
*****************************
Have The Regulators Signed Off On This Deal? 

ETE-WMB creates a $150 billion global player.
Energy Transfer's pro forma enterprise value will be $149 billion, behind Chevron's of $193 billion and above BP Plc's at $139 billion.
The company is walking among the majors, in practically one year's time, as a top five global energy company. Kinder Morgan'svalue is $108 billion - its next midstream competitor.
The transaction is valued at nearly $38 billion. The merged entity will trade as Energy Transfer Corp. - ETC, a new NYSE listing. ETC is likened to an ETE twin structure-wise, except it's a C-corp structure versus the MLP version of Energy Transfer Equity.
Full details at Street Insider.
 
I think Warren Buffett paid about $45 billion for BNSF.

********************************
Taking Things Out Of Context

Wow, talk about taking things out of context

Monday, September 28, 2015

CLR's Rennerfeldt / Mildred Wells In Brooklyn Oil Field

The "30H" wells are long laterals, running south, sited in either section 19 or 30; drilling unit sections 30/31.
The "19H" wells are long laterals, running north, sited in either section 19 or 30; drilling unit sections 19/18.

23221, 475, CLR, Rennerfeldt 2-30H, t5/13; cum 311K 3/20;
23220, 475, CLR, Rennerfeldt 3-30H, t5/13; cum 240K 3/20;

23219, 624, CLR, Mildred 2-19H, t4/13; cum 290K 3/20;
23218, 725, CLR, Mildred 3-19H, t4/13; cum 259K 3/20;

28624, 876, CLR, Mildred 4-19H, t12/14; cum 294K 3/20;
28625, 728, CLR, Mildred 5-19H1, t12/14; cum 248K 3/20;

28626, 904, CLR, Rennerfeldt 4-30H, t5/15; cum 306K 3/20;
28627, 569, CLR, Rennerfeldt 5-30H1, t5/15; cum 246K 3/20;

20200, 688, CLR, Mildred 1-19H, t6/11; cum 310K 3/20; needs to be re-fracked;

20205, 859, CLR, Rennerfeldt 1-30H, t8/11; cum 287K 3/20; off-line 8/15; back on line within a couple of months;


29196, 559, CLR, Mildred 6-19H1, t8/15; cum 217K 3/20;
29195, 622, CLR, Mildred 7-19H, t8/15; cum 323K 3/20; jump in production, 2/19; continues through 4/19;

29194, 827, CLR, Mildred 8-19H1, t8/15; cum 246K 3/20;

29193, 657, CLR, Rennerfeldt 6-30H1, t5/15; cum 265K 3/20; jump in production, 5/18; continues through 4/19;

29192, 1,051, CLR, Rennerfeldt 7-30H, t5/15; cum 320K 3/20; long, long plateau at 3,000 bbls/month;
29191, 772, CLR, Rennerfeldt 8-30H1, t5/15; cum 217K 3/20;

****************************
Jump In Production -- Noted 4/19

Small jump; unremarkable in big scheme of things, but again, the Bakken is unpredictable. 
  • 29195, 622, CLR, Mildred 7-19H, t8/15; cum 293K 4/19; jump in production, 2/19; continues through 4/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2019304776471245916731641854
BAKKEN3-20193146524646487656945007494
BAKKEN2-201928494648664961672451231391
BAKKEN1-201931313330376962223821535
BAKKEN12-20183112281169651319171
BAKKEN11-20183154181741077822
BAKKEN10-201810714796346646392239
BAKKEN9-20183029022883181556824777790
BAKKEN8-201829256325511637104589879310
BAKKEN7-201829274527702332117891142239
BAKKEN6-20183025532748263311019106847
  • 29193, 657, CLR, Rennerfeldt 6-30H1, t5/15; cum 241K 4/19; jump in production, 5/18; continues through 4/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-201930267226763130110241051188
BAKKEN3-20193133193301364314941131371297
BAKKEN2-20192832583317379914743112323050
BAKKEN1-201931412441804420152141463037
BAKKEN12-2018314639466781231694115476697
BAKKEN11-20183031482942595615072109843083
BAKKEN10-2018211726174833611597496945911
BAKKEN9-20183034893567668628556240093970
BAKKEN8-2018315034493658621271312009377
BAKKEN7-201831369237205599148831442748
BAKKEN6-201830333537424950706168494
BAKKEN5-2018314863437259818069789346
BAKKEN4-2018231131124615081311290
BAKKEN3-2018311920198128653353255

Earnings - 3Q15

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.

Earnings Calendar

All 3Q15 earnings will be reported at this page; the link will be on the sidebar at the right, under "Earnings Central." When we start to see earnings reports for any quarter, the "Earnings Central" link is moved to the top of the sidebar until the earning season is over.

I don't have time to check/update earnings on all companies listed below. If you see one that I have missed, feel free to send it in (anonymous comment or by e-mail) and I will post it.

Much of this information is done in haste. I assume there are factual and typographical errors. It is for my personal use only. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Comment:
  • More than 2/3rds of the way through earnings season (November 4, 2015), reports do not seem as bad initially forecast; this was supposed to be a horrendous quarter; lots of write-downs; seems to be the quarter in which share prices in oil and gas sector were reset
General update (dates subject to change)
  • AAPL ($1.88): Huge beat: $1.96 vs $1.88 forecast.
  • AA (Alcoa) (15 cents), Oct 8: The aluminum maker reported an adjusted quarterly profit of 7 cents a share, missing analysts 13 cents a share estimate. Revenue of $5.6 billion came in roughly in line with estimates. Adjusted profit during the quarter was down 77% from the same period last year. 
  • BRK: profit more than doubles over same quarter one year ago; BNSF with 12% increase
  • TSLA: forecast a loss of 50 cents; AP story here; loss at 58 cents is bigger than expected; but deliveries better than expected and TSLA surges 7% in after-hours trading;

EPS estimates in parentheses following the ticker symbol (according to Yahoo!Finance) -- typographical errors likely.

ARII (American Railcar Industries) ($1.42):  
BizJournal; a third-quarter profit of $29.4 million, up 23 percent from $23.8 million in the prior-year quarter.

The company’s quarterly revenue totaled $172.7 million, up 6 percent from a year ago.
Anadarko (APC) (a lost of 73 cents: wow, huge miss, a net loss of $4.71. How could forecast and actual be so different? Actually, they knocked off $3.69 from the loss for "certain items affecting comparability" and when doing that they actually show a loss of only 72 cents (slightly better than forecast).

APA (- 34 cents): forecast a loss of 36 cents; Reuters;
a much bigger quarterly loss as it took a $3.7 billion writedown due to a slump in oil prices
Net loss attributable to Apache's common shareholders widened to $5.56 billion, or $14.95 per share, in the third quarter, from $1.33 billion, or $3.50 per share, a year earlier.
AXAS (- 2 cents): AP report; misses by one cent; a 3-cent loss; 

AMZG ($): Nov 5

Arch Coal (ACI) (-$5.52):
Arch Coal (ACI), forecast a loss of $5.45; much, much better -- only a loss of $3.38/share; Arch Coal soars after earnings beat; up as much as 10%; Revenue decreased to $688.5 million, down from $742.2 million for the year-ago period. Analysts surveyed at Zacks were expecting the company to report a wider loss of $5.79 per share on revenue of $688.29 million.
BTE.TO (Baytex) (- 12 cents): forecast a loss of 16 cents; press release;
a slower pace of development in the Eagle Ford and suspended heavy oil drilling in Canada. We remained focused on cost reduction;
BAX ($0.29): incredible quarter; beats by 12 cents;

BCEI (- 22 cents):  Nov 4

BHI (-10 cents): loss less than expected, 5 cent loss vs Zacks forecast a loss of 15 cents;
Oilfield services giant Baker Hughes saw revenues drop to $3.8 billion for 3Q 2015, down 39 percent compared to 3Q 2014, and a 5 percent decrease from last quarter. “Compared to the third quarter of 2014, revenue in North America declined 57 percent on sharply lower activity and unfavorable pricing, while actions we have taken to right-size our operational structure resulted in decremental adjusted operation profit margins of 30 percent,” Baker Hughes CEO Martin Craighead said in a company release.
BK ($0.72): profit down, but beat estimates at 74 cents/share; "comfortably surpassed estimates" -- Zacks;

BKH ($0.57):  forecast 58 cents; 64 cents adjusted; AP here;

BWC (Babcock & Wilcox) ($ ): forecast 32 cents; press release here; big miss; 25 cents;

Calfrac Well Services (CFW.TO) (-36 cents): press releaselooks like a 25-cent loss vs a forecast 36-cent loss;

 
CAT (82 cents):  big miss; 75 cents;

CHK (- 13 cents): Zacks; 5-cent loss, which is much better than the forecast 13-cent loss.

CLNE (-28 cents): forecast a loss of 28 cents; press release here;
if I read this correctly, the loss was 23 cents; much better than forecast;
CLR (- 9 cents): forecast, a lost of 12 cents; AP story; in line, lost 12 cents;

CNR.TO (Canadian National Railway) ($1.14): Oct 27
 
COP (-18 cents):
  • Q3 EPS of -$0.38 in-line.
  • Revenue of $16.05B (+24.2% Y/Y) beats by $7.94B. (this may be an error; was not in the corrected Seeking Alpha update)
  • Press release here
CPG.T (Crescent Point) ($): forecast 3 cents; AP; earnings came to 2 cents;

CRR (- 63 cents):
  • AP story here.
  • On a per-share basis, the Houston-based company said it had a loss of 60 cents. Losses, adjusted for non-recurring costs, came to 35 cents per share.
  • The results beat Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of six analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of 63 cents per share
CSX ($0.51): Record 3Q15 earnings;  52 cents; The company also reported record operating profits and operating ratio. The operating efficiency helped CSX offset year-over-year revenue and volume decline by 9% and 3%, respectively. Reported revenues were $2.9 billion, operating income was $0.9 billion, and operating ratio was 68.3% for the quarter compared to 66.8% in the prior quarter.


CVX ($0.84): huge beat at $1.09; will cut 7,000 jobs

DNR (13 cents):  forecast 13 cents; AP; beats by 5 cents at 18 cents per share;

DVN ($0.56):  The AP story; wow, a huge beat -- earnings reported to be 76 cents vs 56 cents forecast per share. Reuters/Rigzone here.

ECA ($):

EEP ($0.22):  beats by 2 cents;

ENB (ENB.TO) (49 cents), forecast 49 cents; WSJ;
Canadian / US dollars makes forecast / actual difficult to compare; WSJ says 47 Canadian cents were up from 41 Canadian cents a year earlier but fell just short of hte 49 Canadian cents analysts were expecting; from Reuters: Enbridge Inc, Canada's largest pipeline company, reported a 15.7 percent rise in quarterly adjusted profit, helped by increased throughput as producers moved more oil by pipelines than on rail. The Calgary-based company's adjusted earnings rose to C$399 million ($303.4 million), or 47 Canadian cents per share, in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, from C$345 million, or 41 Canadian cents per share, a year earlier. ($1 = 1.32 Canadian dollars)
EOG (-25 cents):  forecast a loss of 29 cents; press release; transcript;

EOX (Emerald; was VOG) ($ ):

EPD ($0.33):
  • misses by 2 cents
  • misses on revenues
ERF (ERF.TO) (): forecast a loss of 10 cents; AP; huge miss; actually loss 32 cents/share;

ETP ($0.25):  Nov 3 

GEOI (bought by Halcon [HK], below)

HAL ($0.31):  revenue drops 47%; a loss of 6 cents/share; huge miss;

HES (- $1.22):  Hess does better than expected; still reports a loss:
The New York-based company said it had a loss of 98 cents per share. Losses, adjusted for non-recurring gains, were $1.03 per share.
The results beat Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for a loss of $1.22 per share.
HP (6 cents):  Nov 11

HK (Halcon; previously GEOI) (1 cent):  forecast one cent; press release;
if I read this correctly, net income was 4 cents; if accurate, a huge beat; transcript;
Kinder Morgan - KMI ($0.19 ): Oct 21, after market closes

LEG.TO (Legacy/Bowood) ($):

LINE (10 cents): suspends dividend, Oct 27; preliminary results; forecast 13 cents; press release;

MDU ($0.38): forecast 38 cents; AP reports:
MDU Resources Group Inc. (MDU) on Monday reported a third-quarter loss of $139.4 million, after reporting a profit in the same period a year earlier.
On a per-share basis, the Bismarck, North Dakota-based company said it had a loss of 72 cents. Earnings, adjusted to account for discontinued operations and non-recurring costs, came to 38 cents per share.
The results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of five analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 37 cents per share.
MHR (Magnum Hunter) (- 26 cents):  Nov 5

MPC (Marathon Petroleum ($1.72):
  • refiner profits jump 40%, Reuters 
  • profit of $1.76 per share
  • results did not meet Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $1.80 per share
  • revenue of $18.76 billion in the period, topping Street forecasts. Three analysts surveyed by Zacks expected $18.19 billion
MPO (-$3.28): press release here; 95-cent loss; AP here; beats by $2.91;

MRO (Marathon Oil) (- 40 cents): forecast, a loss of 40 cents; AP story here; appears to be a huge beat; loss at 20 cents vs 40 cents forecast;

MUR: beats by 20 cents; press release here;  

NE (Noble Corp) ($ ):

NBL (- 15 cents): misses, Zacks; 21-cent loss; vs 15-cent loss forecast;

NBR (-13 cents): Oct 27, after market closes

NFX ($0.17): forecast of 16 cents; AP story here; huge beat at 21 cents per share;

NGLS (9 cents):
NOG ($0.16):  Nov 4, after market close

NOV ($ 0.57):  National Oilwell: better than expected: sees weaker 4Q15;
Earnings per share (excluding one-time items) came in at 61 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 56 cents.
OAS ($6 cents): forecast of 6 cents; AP story here; works out to 9 cents/share;

OKE ($0.40):  AP story; OKE 41 cents vs 39 cents forecast; beats; press release;

OKS ($0.47): see OKE

OTTR ($0.42): forecast 44 cents; AP reports:
The Fergus Falls, Minnesota-based company said it had profit of 41 cents per share. Earnings, adjusted to account for discontinued operations, were 42 cents per share.
OXY (- 1 center): OXY adjusted profit beats expectations on cost cuts; swings to quarterly loss on $2.6 billion in charges;
The company, which has operations in Oman, Texas and North Dakota, posted a net loss of $2.61 billion, or $3.42 per share.
Occidental reported a profit of $1.21 billion, or $1.55 per share, in the year-ago quarter. 
The latest quarter’s results included about $3.4 billion in asset impairment charges.
Core earnings were 3 cents a share, while analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had forecast a loss of a penny a share.
PAA ($0.26): forecast of 25 cents; beats by 4 cents; 28 cents EPS

PSX ($2.03):  earnings jump 34%; huge, huge beat; forecast $2.24; actually earned $2.90


PXD (Pioneer Natural Resources) (- 2 cents): 
Forecast a loss of 3 cents; press release here; Pioneer reported third quarter net income attributable to common stockholders of $646 million, or $4.27 per diluted share. Without the effect of noncash derivative mark-to-market gains and other unusual items, adjusted results for the third quarter were a net loss of $1 million after tax, or $0.01 per diluted share.
QEP (- 8 cents):
  • forecast a loss of 10 cents; press release here; beats; continuing operations, 12 cents; EPS adjusted one cent;
RRC (Range Resources):  (-2 cents): Oct 28

RIG ($0.61):  forecast, 68 cents; press release; beats by 21 cents; 87 cents EPS;

SBUX (Starbucks) ($0.43):
  • forecast 43 cents; 
  • profit jumped 11% in the third quarter driven by growing sales at its U.S. cafes, though it projected earnings for the current period that came in slightly below analysts’ expectations.
  • global same-store sales rose 8% in the latest quarter, above Consensus Metrix analysts’ expectations for an increase of 6.9%
  • same-store sales in the Americas segment grew 8%—driven by a 9% jump in the U.S.—also exceeding analysts’ forecasts.
SD (- 11 cents):  press release; 7-cent loss; to acquire North Park Bsin Niobrara shale oil assets for $190 million; acquies Pinon Gathering System - eliminates $40 million of annual expenses

SLB ($0.78): in-line.

SCTY: (-$1.95): Oct 29

SM (- 19 cents):  if this is correct, quite a beat; net earnings of 5 cents vs expected loss of 19 cents;

SRE (91 cents):
  • transcript
  • it was a $1.00 in 2Q15; forecast 88 cents; beats by 11 cents; AP here;
  • the San Diego-based company said it had profit of 99 cents per share. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, came to $1 per share
  • the results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of four analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of 83 cents per share
SRGY:

SSN:

STO (BEXP) ($): Statoil, state-controlled; posted a net loss of $330 million compared with a loss of
$550 million same quarter one year earlier. 
 
STR (18 cents):  AP; meets profit forecast; reported 18 cents; exactly in line.

T ($0.69): big beat; 74 cents; increases guidance on earnings; increases guidance on free cash flow; 3Q15 revenues up almost $40 billion, nearly 19% versus year earlier; they say the 19% increase is due to DirecTV -- if so, wow!
Net income attributable to the company fell to $3.0 billion, or 50 cents per share, in the third quarter ended Sept. 30, from $3.13 billion, or 60 cents per share, a year earlier. The company, reporting its first earnings since completing its $48 billion acquisition of satellite TV operator DirecTV, said total operating revenue rose to $39.1 billion from $33.0 billion.
Targa Resources (TRGP) (62 cents):  
TPLM (- 11 cents):  Dec 7

TSO ($5.32): beats by 8 cents; press release here;

TransCanada (TRP.TO) ($): forecast 60 cents; press release here; 57 cents, it appears;

Ultra Petroleum (UPL) ($0.17): Oct 29
UNP ($1.43): big beat; $1.50;

USEG ($): 

VLO ($2.60):   Valero earnings rise 40% on cheap crude oil; profit rises 30 percent; tops forecast
The San Antonio-based company said it had profit of $2.79 per share.
The results surpassed Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of nine analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $2.60 per share.
WDFC ($0.81):  misses; at 80 cents;

WFT (- 9 cents):  a loss of 5 cents; vs expectations of a 11-cent loss;

WHZ:

WLL (- 21 cents):  Whiting Petroleum, forecast a loss of 25 cents; press release here; a loss of 17 cents; prior to adjustment, a loss of $9.14 vs a gain of $1.32 same quarter last year; Whiting writes off $2.57 billion in assets, including its KOG assets;

WMB ($0.23 ):   forecast 22 cents; press release here; meets at 22 cents, vs 21 cents same quarter one year ago;

WPX (- 10 cents): forecast a loss of 14 cents; AP;

slightly wider than foecast; Zacks predicted a loss of 12 cents; actual loss was 17 cents/share;
XOM (91 cents):  huge beat at $1.01; this is interesting -- a $1.01 this quarter this year, and $1.89 a year ago, same quarter; huge drop but nearly not as bad as one might have expected; color me impressed;

XLNX ($0.47):  beats at 48 cents; Wall Street  happy; Shares of Xilinx went up nearly 5% in after-hours trading yesterday, primarily due to better-than-expected earnings during the quarter and an encouraging third-quarter revenue guidance.

Five (5) New Permits; CLR Reports A Nice Well; 2/4 DUCs -- September 28, 2015

From Penn Energy today:
COURTENAY, N.D. (AP) — Minneapolis-based Xcel Energy is starting construction on a 200-megawatt wind farm in southeastern North Dakota.
KQDJ radio reports that a ground-breaking ceremony was scheduled Friday. The project should be completed next year.
Details here.

******************************************
Back To The Bakken

In addition to the wells reported earlier coming off the confidential list this weekend and today, add eight (8) Corinthian Exploration (USA) Corp permits, these were eight (8) Brandjord permits for wells targeting the Spearfish/Madison formation in Botteneau County were canceled. In addition, nine (9) Slawson permits were also canceled; these nine permits were all in Mountrail County and include a Silencer permit; two Jugard permits, a River Rat permit, a Rebel permit, and four Snakeeyes permits.

Four (4) producing wells were completed:
  • 25184 (scroll down for more information), 2,317, Slawson, River Rat Federal 7-23-14TFH, Big Bend, t9/15; cum --
  • 25185 (scroll down for more information), 1,169, Slawson, River Rat Federal 4-23-14TFH, Big Bend, t9/15; cum --
  • 28371 (scroll down for more information), 941, Hess, AN-Brenna-153-94-3130H-6, Sanish pool, Antelope, 9/15; cum --
  • 30356, 819, Hess, BL-Kerbaugh-156-96-3427H-5, Beaver Lodge, t9/15; cum --
Active rigs in the Bakken:


9/28/201509/28/201409/28/201309/28/201209/28/2011
Active Rigs70190184190195

Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday:
  • 29192, 1,051, CLR, Rennerfeldt 7-30H, Brooklyn, 29 stages, 3.3 million lbs, t51/5; cum 56K 7/15;
  • 29363, 563, Hess, CA-Ferguson Smith-155-95-3031H-2, Capa, t8/15; cum --
  • 30701, SI/NC, Statoil, Irgens 27-34 8H, East Fork, no production data,
  • 30855, SI/NC, EOG, Shell 29-2820H, Parshall, no production data,
Five (5) new permits --
  • Operators: Whiting (3), EOG (2)
  • Field: Glass Bluff (McKenzie), Ross (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
*************************************************

29192, see above, CLR, Rennerfeldt 7-30H, Brooklyn:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20151657924648
6-20151717524303
5-20151951730770
3-201519090

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25184: this well is one of several lateral re-entry projects to previously drilled vertical and curve sections on the same pad. In July, 2013, the vertical hole was drilled to a depth of 10,008' MD, and the curve was landed within the Three Forks Formation at a depth of 10,827' MD. Intermediate casing was set at 10,796' MD before the well would lay dormant. Unit #123 re-entered the well on May 18, 2015....

So, even before the marked slump in oil prices (beginning in October, 2014), operators were drilling DUCs.

The target zone was 12 feet, the top of which was 16 feet below the Pronghorn Member. Much attention was given to keeping the wellbore in the seam. The wellbore remained within the ideal target for 81% of its lateral exposure.

Background gas on occasion over 2,000 units. Reached 3,000 units at times with connections over 3,500 units. Flares: 35' to 45' -- these are some of the highest flares I've seen recorded.

25185: another Three Forks well. Background gas ranged around 2,160 units. Target zone, 12 feet thick. "At 17,424' MD, the decision was made to trip out of the borehole and change-out the failing directional mud motor and inspect the drill bit. While tripping back into the wellbore and returning back into the Pronghorn shale, reaming forward was necessary to advance. The next decision was made to abandon this trip-into the hold, for fear of getting stuck somewhere, in the 700-feet  of open and exposed Pronghorn shale. A stratum, oil field wide, that is notorious for causing very expensive and time consuming calamities."

"Slawson's geologists are targeting the Upper Three Forks Formation's highest porosity (5 to 6 percent) stratum. A stratum that is always referred to as, the target zone. the target zone's stratigraphy is identified by its following characteristics: lithology, penetration rate (ROP), gamma ray API counts per second, the visual liquid lighter fluid / fluorescence cuts, and the total gas units and accompanying chromate C1 through C6 ppm values.

"The lithology of the River Rat Federal 4-23-14TFH's 11-foot thick, stratigraphic target zone is described from the top, down. At the top, the target zone is a dolostone, interbedded with very thin stringers or beds of shaley argillaceous limy mudstone and silty dolic limestone. The target zone's lithology is further identified by the API gamma ray counts: dolostone API 30 - 45 counts, dolic-silty-limestone API 40 - 70 counts, shaley-lmy-mudstone API 80 - 110 counts."

At the end, the borehole's formation total gas ranged from 2500 to 5000 units.

28371: this pad calls for six horizontal wellbores to be drilled, with 33' spacing between wellheads. This well will target the 1st bench of the Three Forks. Reminder: C1 - C4 (methane, ethane, propane, butane, and isobutane [iso-butane: iC4 and normal butane: nC4]) components were recorded in ppm.

Upper Bakken Shale is easily recognized by the increase in drilling rate, high gamma values, and a decrease of weight on bit.

The Middle Bakken had a marked decrease in gamma values and drilling rate from the upper shale. The middle Bakken: primarily a lime packstone; further into the middle Bakken, a white silty sandstone.

The Lower Bakken Shale was identified by a large increase in gamma values and rate of penetration, the shale was described as black, soft to firm. Similar to the upper shale, the lower shale contains earthy porosity and gas shows approaching 415 units.

The Three Forks was distinguished by reduced gamma values and drilling rate from the lower shale. The Three Forks showed a complex interbedding of shale and dolomite interpreted as near-shore marine deposits.

The report stops here; it was a DUC. The well would await intermediate casing and would be re-entered in order to drill the lateral.