Happy Birthday, Amber Renee --

Updates

August 27, 2022: production updated, and a fourth well introduced. 

Original Post

The Amber Renee well was completed/tested almost exactly three years ago. It has produced about 750,000 bbls in those three years. It is still producing about 10,000 bbls/month, and is not on a pump (based on the scout ticket)

• 18408, TA/1,945,  Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H, Sanish, one mile to the west of the Chandler James; s12/09; t2/10; F ; "long" lateral; cum 750K 2/13;  822K 12/13; off line since 12/13;

This well is considered a "long lateral" but, in fact, is quite short, barely extending in to the second section;  the Chandler James is in the same section, running parallel to Amber Renee, but is a "full" long lateral;

The Chandler James:

• 17263,  3,124, Chandler James 25-36H, s7/08, produced 500,234 bbls in 484 days; as of 8/12 -- 899K; no pump; still producing 8,000 to 9,000 bbls/month; t10/08; cum 921K 2/13; cum 1,216,690 bbls 6/22;

Interestingly enough, another well is in the south half of the Amber Renee spacing unit, and although it is "two-acre spacing," in fact, it is not even as long as a typical short lateral:

• 16839, 864, Murex, Jacob Daniel 25-36H-RE, Sanish, t1/08; cum 417K 2/13; cum 562K 6/22;

The fourth well, added August 27, 2022:

• 36887, drl/A, Murex, Amber Renee 25-36H-R, Sanish, first production, 8/21; t--; cum 105K 6/22; full production:

For newbies: Bakken wells are expected to produce for 39 years. Average EURs for long laterals seem to range somewhere between 600,000 and one million bbl.

By the way, a bit of trivia: the best wells seem to be long laterals in sections 25-36, suggesting that the oil in the Bakken tends to run downhill towards the southeast corners in their respective townships. Just something to note.

The Production Numbers For The Austin Wells In Parshall Field Have Been Updated

Link here.

Note: these are, for the most part, all short laterals. In addition, most are still producing between 3,000 and 5,000 bbls/month.

The only question is when will these wells start hitting the million-bbl mark.

Many of these were drilled early in the Bakken boom, as long as five years ago. I assume the wells were paid for at the wellhead when they hit 100,000 bbls. It is anticipated that the Bakken wells will produce for 39 years. 

Monday Morning Links

RBN Energy: the Niobrara.

Far from a recent discovery – Niobrara has been producing oil for nearly a century from vertical wells. The Niobrara is organic rich shale with the potential to generate 10-20 MMBbl of oil per square mile. As a result this 200 to 400 feet thick layer of sedimentary rock has long attracted the attention of producers.

However Niobrara is not easy to work with – frustrating even. The shale has many different layers and rock types that make horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing particularly difficult. Incidentally the oil rich part of the formation running north to south from Wyoming to Colorado is shaped like a banana. For the operators at least it turns out that the Niobrara can be one tricky banana to peel.

WSJ Links

Section C (Money & Investing):

Section B (Marketplace):

• Oil-tanker operations struggle to stay afloat: For the largest ships—so called Very Large Crude Carriers, which can carry up to two million barrels of oil—the average charter rate on the Mideast-to-Japan route is around $7,085 a day, far below the operation cost of $10,000 to $12,000 a day. The rate peaked at $309,601 a day in 2007.

• 'Kon-Tiki,' a biopic made in two languages lands in US: The result is two versions of the same film, one in English due in theaters on April 26 and another in Norwegian. The Norwegian-language version, released in 2012, was nominated for this year's Academy Award for best-foreign language film (the Oscar went to Michael Haneke's "Amour"), and is the second-highest grossing film in Norway at about $14 million behind Messrs. Rønning and Sandberg's 2008 movie "Max Manus: Man of War." Weinstein Co., which acquired the rights to both films in November, plans to distribute only the English-language version in the U.S.

Section A:

• SecState Lurch blinks; offers direct talks to North Korea; taking the high moral ground; "giving peace a chance";
• Race for support before key gun vote: looks like this, too, will pass; will be the most significant gun-control legislation in years; if passed, it will never be repealed;
• Looks like a good week for the criminal mind: first, law-abiding citizens will have gun ownership abridged making them targets for the criminal mind; second, Supreme Court could stop routine DNA sampling; and, of course, due to overcrowding in California, criminals are being released even earlier than parole guidelines; yup, a good week for the criminal mind. I'm not saying I agree or disagree with any of these three "events." Just noting the obvious. It is notable that the most heinous gun crimes occur in gun-free zones.
• The Sierra Club is never satisfied: El Paso says goodbye to landmark. Asarco smokestacks are demolished as part of effort to clean up and redevelop industrial site.
• Republicans are never happy; now they are upset that the President's labor-secretary nominee may have lied.
• Any surprise? Venezuela says Chavez successor wins vote. One more reason it would have been nice for the Keystone XL to be on-line by now.  Canadian heavy oil = Venezuelan heavy oil. One arrives by pipeline; one by ocean-going vessel. One comes from America's closest ally; one comes from .... well, from Venezuela.
• China GDP growth slows to 7.7%. Gonna be an ugly day on the market.
• Palestinian Prime Minister resigns just days after visiting with Sec State Lurch. The meeting must not have gone so well.
• Cash-strapped Egypt will spend $18 billion until 2017 to build new refineries and modify existing plants in a move to increase its annual fuel output -- now why else would a country build new refineries and modify existing plants if not to increase production?

Canada's Economic "Miracle" In Trouble?

CNBC is reporting a story regarding Canada's economic "miracle."

But recent growth has consistently fallen short of expectations and a very rough patch late last year turned disappointment into dread. Economists had been betting on a quicker U.S. recovery to boost Canadian exports, as well as a pickup in business spending.

There was no mention of the challenges the Canadian energy sector is having. I would assume that with a deteriorating energy sector, it would limit the government's options.

Student Loan Repayment

Updates

April 16, 2013: See below. Right now, the "forgiven" student loan is treated as income. President Obama will change that: "forgiven" student load will not be treated as income. This is huge. Students should borrow as much as they can possibly afford; they know that the max they will have to pay is 10% of their discretionary pay for 20 years. Meanwhile, colleges and universities can now charge literally as much as they want. Price of a college education will no longer be an issue.

 

Original Post

CNBC is reporting an interesting story for those with student loans. Most folks assume that student loans require a monthly payment determined by the lender based on loan amount, interest rate, and repayment period.

However, everyone with a student loan should apply for income-based repayment (IBR) schedule. The worse that will happen is that you won't qualify, but that is very, very unlikely. I would imagine the vast majority with a student loan would qualify.

The loan repayment is maxed out based on discretionary income, and the remainder of any loan outstanding after the repayment period is forgiven.

The OLD IBR:

• monthly payments capped at 15% of discretionary income
• 25-year repayment period
• any loan remaining not paid off at the end of 25 years is forgiven

The NEW IBR (part of the ObamaCare bill):

• monthly payments capped at 10% of discretionary income
• 20-year repayment period
• any loan remaining not paid off at the end of 20 years is forgiven

Using this calculator, a $70,000 loan at 6.8% over 20 years: $534.34/month.

If one qualifies for an IBR loan over 20 years with an income of $40,000/year: $291/month.

One needs to re-apply annually, so it's impossible to determine how much of the loan would be written off at the end of the 20-year period, but it could be substantial. Loan forgiveness would probably be a taxable event.