Locator: 49142INVESTING.
The market: yesterday's market was a mess following the Fed announcement. It looks like the dust has settled.
- dot plot: one more cut guaranteed -- October -- 100% if nothing changes -- by year-end
- the market betting on two more cuts by year-end.
The new target, consensus, though JPow disagrees:
- inflation goal: 3%
Pre-market:
On a day like this ... if it plays out like the pre-market suggests -- on a day like this ... it's not a stock picker's market. It's a day when one can simply throw darts. Exhibit A: INTC.
Of note: "everybody" showed up for King Charles' state dinner -- including Tim Cook who was seated only a few seats to the right of President Trump. Folks may recall that Tim Cook snubbed Trump when he (Cook) did not show up in Saudi Arabia some months ago.
Seating chart: Tim Cook was seated to four seats to the right of President Trump. On Trump's immediate right was Duchess of York (Princess Kate); to her right was David Owen, the husband of biotech CEO Dame Emma Walmsley (CEO of GSK plc). To his right, Tiffany Trump (fourth child of Donald Trump and his only child with his second wife, Marla Maples), and then to her right, Tim Cook.
Jeremy Siegel on the Fed's rate cut:
- not wearing glasses this a.m.; looks like he's ready to go somewhere;
- Waller: front-runner for chairman; surprised he was not more aggressive; how will Trump see Waller?
- maybe a show of support for JPow
- surprised that there were no dissents (except the one from Miran, of course)
- the market will hit new highs today; best day ever to be in the market (tongue in cheek)
- low dollar favorable to US stocks
- all the negatives from the tariffs offset by all the positives in the market
- very, very bullish.
Automobile door handles: who would have thought this becomes the big auto story in both the EU and the US
- Tesla is updating its passenger-trapping door handles -- The Verge
Pemex: Mexico will inject nearly $14 billion into this company ... again.
EU: tables vote on planned greenhouse vote; no new date set. The proposal was a 90-percent cut on GHG emissions for 2040 compared with 1990 levels. Avoids a circular firing squad for now.
- Macron: poster child for draconian cuts; now? Was behind the EU's decision to table that vote.
Mike Pence: if one thinks MAGA is too conservative, watch Mike Pence. Wow. Makes Trump look like Hillary.
Governor Newsom: pulling out his standard playbook -- threatens oil traders if regulators see any "market manipulation" -- setting the stage to blame the oil companies if (when?) California gasoline prices surge.
O'Hare: Chicago's air traffic surged this year. Certainly doesn't look like a recession in the Rust Belt.
Corn's falling prices: recurrent topic on x today. Record US production predicted; then this:
Note this, and ask the question why?
Answer: ethanol and corn syrup.
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Larry Ellison
How is Ellison able to fund his spending binge?
His Oracle shares are put up as collateral, but not actually spending the money.
A lot of billionaire's fortunes are tied up in loans.
Loans are not taxed. In some cases, interest on these loans can be tax-deductable.
Meanwhile, shares used as collateral for successful ventures continue to appreciate.
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Intel and Antifa
Finally, more adulting in the room: Trump designates ANTIFA as a terrorist group. The big question: who in Portland / Hillsboro pushed Trump's button on this one? Quick: where is Intel's largest operating site located, and a crucial center for research and development? The Hillsboro facility includes both manufacturing capabilities and a large research and design center, making it a center for technological innovation.
ChatGPT prompt: Intel was founded in Santa Clara, California. How did Intel end up in Hillsboro?
ChatGPT reply:
- one of the most important stories in US semiconductor story
- in plain terms:
- Intel founded in 1968 in Santa Clara, CA
- through the 1970s, all of its major operations -- R&D, fabs, and HQ -- centered in Silicon Valley
- why Oregon?
- in the 1970s, Intel facing:
- high costs of land and labor
- increasing traffic congestion
- growing environmental restrictions
- meawhile, Oregon offered:
- lower-cost land and electricity
- proximity to the Bay Area
- skilled workforce (multiple universities)
- aggressive state-level incentives
- the first step: aloha, Oregon, 1974
- Intel's first Oregon facility in 1974 in Hillsboro to manufacture more chips
- modest start but proved Oregon could do it
- growth into Hillsboro, 1980s to 1990s
- Hillsboro became Intel's "Ronler Acres" and "Jones Farm" campuses
- today: Hillsboro -- Intel's crown jewel
- Intel's largest site worldwide; 20,000+ employees
Intel's new CEO: appears to be working 24/7 to turn Intel around.
Big change from Pat Gelsinger. New CEO: Lip-Bu Tan. Doesn't roll off one's tongue like "Pat Gelsinger." Won Trump over. That Antifa story is huge. Maybe there's no connection between Nvidia / Intel deal and Trump naming Antifa a terrorist organization but some folks don't believe in coincidences.
Trump: every time you see Trump on television, imagine if that was Biden.
And I still hear a lot of staunch Republicans who sound like they now wish they had voted for Biden. Including some of my extended family members. They seem unable to answer the question, if not Trump, who? Jeffries? Pocahontas? Gavin? Walz (about to become the longest serving governor in Minnesota)?
