Thursday, September 18, 2025

Thursday -- September 18, 2025

Locator: 49148B.

NDIC website: looks like the website is down tonight. Or at least some modules.

Nvidia: Jensen Huang is not through buying; he just spent $900 million (~ $1 billion) to hire Enfabrica CEO, license AI startup's technology; link here.

  • Efabrica's technology: can connect more than 100,000 GPUs together;
  • currently, Nvidia's racks come with 72 GPUs installed working together;
    • e.g., the kind of system announced by Microsoft today: a $4 billion data center in Wisconsin;
      • Microsoft's Wisconsin AI data center, part of a $7.3 billion campus in Mount Pleasant, connects its servers with fiber optic cables . The facility is built to operate as a single AI supercomputer, and the vast scale and speed requirements of AI workloads necessitate fiber over traditional copper links.  
      • While the specific provider for the Wisconsin data center's fiberoptic cables isn't directly stated, the partnership between Microsoft and Lumen Technologies for next-generation AI infrastructure indicates Lumen is a likely key supplier for Microsoft's network needs, including those at the Wisconsin facility. 
        • Lumen has reserved a portion of Corning's fiber-optic cable production to support AI-driven applications, and their agreement will help meet the surging demand from large data centers like Microsoft.
        • Lumen Technologies and Corning are collaborating and have established a supply agreement where Corning will provide Lumen with its next-generation optical fiber and cable to expand Lumen's network infrastructure for high-bandwidth applications, particularly for Artificial Intelligence (AI) data centers. Corning's innovative, fiber-dense cable system allows Lumen to install significantly more fiber in the same conduit, increasing network capacity and preparig Lumen to support major cloud data center clients.

Market: I'll post more later tonight. Pressed for time right now due to family commitments, but three things:

  • I couldn't be happier about how the market did today;
  • CNBC "Fast Money" panel attributed the US stock market action due to the quarter-basis-point cut; they were completely wrong; I'll explain later;
  • I was completely wrong regarding my earlier comments about the Nvidia-Intel deal
    • I can't recall if I posted that on the blog or if my comments were in sidebar (e-mail) discussion with a reader; regardless, I'll talk about that later, also
    • for now, Jim Cramer had the best explanation during his opening on "Mad Money," CNBC, although more can be added.

Intel-Nvidia: Market Watch, link here

Different styles:

  • Pat Gelsinger: looking to sell parts of Intel to raise badly needed cash to save company;
  • Lip-Bu Tan: venture capitalist; one of the best in the world; former Intel executive; raising money by offering stakes in the company:
    • SoftBank: $2 billion, August, 2025
    • Trump: $8.9 billion stake, August, 2025 (no new money; Intel had already received the money)
    • Intel: $5 billioin, September, 2025

Cramer:

  • $5-billion deal:
    • did not mention "foundry"
    • focused on server and PC (think "Intel inside," #1 competitor: AMD)

Cramer:

  • doesn't guarantee survival of Intel
    • Intel still needs to execute 
      • remains a huge challenge
  • at this point, Nvidia's stake is mostly a huge "stamp of approval" supporting President Trump
  • but, long term, Nvidia widens its strategic footprint
    • currently, core competency -- GPUs for hyperscalers
    • stake in Intel: consumer electronics (PCs) and servers (retail and commercial)

Good news

  • supports the view
    • that the fourth industrial revolution (AI, large data centers, hyperscalers) is real;
    • that the revolution is not hyperbole, not a bubble, not hype
  • winners and losers not settled
  • still very, very early
    • plenty of time to methodically invest in the fourth industrial revolution

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $63.54.

Active rigs: unable to download daily activity report.

Five new permits, #42319 - 42323, inclusive, Hess, Cottonwood oil field:

  • 42319, Hess, RS-Holland-157-92-3624H-2, Cottonwood, 467 FNL 275 FWL;
  • 42320, Hess, RS-Holland-157-92-3624H-3, Cottonwood, 467 FNL 308 FWL;
  • 42321, Hess, RS-Holland-157-92-3624H-5, Cottonwood, 467 FNL 375 FWL;
  • 42322, Hess, RS-Holland-157-92-3624H-4, Cottonwood, 467 FNL 341 FWL;
  • 42323, Hess, RS-Holland-157-92-3624H-6, Cottonwood, 467 FNL 408 FWL;