Locator: 48603ECONOMY.
May income spending and inflation numbers just released.
- personal income:
- takes a bit of a hit; down 0.4%; expected up 0.4%.
- real spending:
- down 0.3%; expected to stay unchanged
- PCE price index: in line, 0.1%
- PCE pric index: exactly as expected 2.3%
- core PCE price index: 0.2% vs 0.1% expected.
- Core PCE price index vs year ago
- 2.7% vs 2.6%
Steve Liesman: much of this is still "front loaded" due to tariffs; most likely one-time stuff
Observations:
- first: inflation is "sticky"
- but: personal income and real spending -- is the economy in trouble?
But with core PCE price not only up 2.7% but well above the Fed's 2% target .... JPow is not going to cut.
Others:
- inflation numbers right now are pre-tariff
- in fact, tariff effects won't hit retail shelves until three to four months from now
