How Would You Like To Be The Economist That Predicts 1970s-Style Stagflation The Day The Newest GDP Estimate Is Released? October 10, 2023

Locator: 45712GDP.

Wow, I love to blog. If I didn't blog, I wouldn't be following this "stuff" at all. I would probably have a life.

Disclaimer: the actual "GDP" number always seems to be a whole less than the estimates. So, take this latest estimate with a grain of salt.

Link here.

This is just amazing. 

The "newest" estimate was just released. And ... drum roll ... it was better than the estimate from five days ago, jumping from 4.9% to 5.1% -- clearly the best GDP in the world, and if this is the only blue dot in the universe, this is the best GDP in the universe. Certainly better than Palestine's GDP. Which, if the Israelis have anything to say about it, will be negative by the end of the year no matter how much money the Biden administration flies in by C-130 or Iran drones in. LOL. New verb ... did you all catch that?

But I digress. The new estimate:

Most amazing, Trump's bank just hinted at 1970s-style stagflation.

The link (no, I'm not going to give it; if interested, you can find it).

The MarketStreet article was so bad on so many levels.The headline mentioned "stagflation," but if the article did mention the word, I missed it. And if it did, the writer, probably a robot, never even defined "1970s-style-stagflation," a British term, not an American term. 

Quick: what are the three components of "stagflation" and which ones (singular or plural) has/have suggested "stagflation"? Spoiler alert: none.

I have a rebuttal to that article -- it's very, very, very long -- I posted it briefly this morning but have since put it in draft form waiting for the Bank of Atlanta's newest GDP estimate for 3Q23.

I don't think I will post my rebuttal because there's no news in the pseudo prediction made by Trump's bank. We all agree there will be a recession. We're all going to be correct; we've all predicted a recession. 

Of the two percent of all Americans that follow the economy as closely as Steve Liesman, all agree that there will be a recession. No one says precisely when we will see that recession which has now been predicted at least since 2011 but we all agree that there will be a recession. Just as we all agree that the Cowboys won't be going to the Super Bowl any time soon.

Because of Covid, I don't consider anything of an economic basis between 2020 and 2022 very relevant, so if there was recession somewhere between 2020 and 2022, es macht nichts. Anyone can manufacture a recession by shutting down the entire country for two years.

But again, I digress.

For the record:

• GDP estimate for 3Q23 has increased once again; 
• again, the highest in the universe, and,
• that recession that we will have has moved to the right, again.

It gets tedious.