Rambling Before Going Out For A Swim -- August 9, 2023

Locator: 45396B.

WTI: $84.05.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.  

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.

I have a large position in COP which I've held for decades. I have added nothing to this position in at least the last ten years. I have no plans to add to this position and no plans to sell. It's a "hold" and will go to the grandchildren.

Facts, factoids, opinions interspersed below. It's impossible to tell what is fantasy and what is fact below. If it's important to you, go to the source, or better yet, avoid this blog.

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Autos

Honda: 78% jump in profit. The new Honda Civics and Accords are breath-taking. I still love my 2012 model, bought in late 2011. Honda "missed" on the Civic in the 2012 - 2013 model years, some say, but has since recovered.

Future: Honda's ICE sales will continue to climb in the US and will surge in the 2030 - 2035 time-frame. In 2034, California will still allow new ICE Hondass to be registered in the state. ICE Honda Civics and Accords will be the most sought-after southern California car. The after-market supply for replacement parts will soar. 

Ford: meanwhile, Ford? Not so good. Except for the Tesla Cybertruck which may or may not be released this year, the Ford story may be the biggest auto story of 2023. And not for a good reason.

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WFH Is Killing WeWork

WeWork no longer working. Links everywhere. Ticker tells the story. Folks keep looking for that "get-rich-quick" scheme and reality hits. Quick: why is WE failing? First the screenshots:

This was telegraphed a year ago when it was widely reported that upwards of 50% of commercial real estate -- where people work in offices -- remained empty. And the trend continues. I've seen reports that upwards of 65% of beehive workers have not returned to the hives. Employers are hoping they can entice workers to come back even two days a week.

REITS: ?

Chips: meanwhile, analysts are diverting our attention away from the "WE" debacle, by calling the AI-story all hype.

Let's add more hype to that story. The ARM IPO. Savvy investors who believe in the hype have been waiting for this IPO for ... decades? This will be the most-watched IPO in history. Okay, recent history. Okay, 2023 history. First to announce it was going to invest in ARM? Apple. Cash on hand: $56 billion. AAPL will issue bonds to raise cash for the ARM investment. Second to announce: Samsung -- with $83 billion cash on hand. Now, today, Amazon says it may invest in the ARM IPO. Amazon's cash on hand? $64 billion. 

Can't get enough of NVDA? Here's more -- today in IBD. The bubble is getting bigger.

$175 billion. That seems like a big number. I don't know. But that's how much Zahra Tayeb says 

short-sellers have lost recently -- betting against Nvidia, Tesla and Meta.

Icahn: the poster-child for the 2023 short-sellers' debacle.

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Apple

My best post on chips, cores, and threads at this post. If you know nothing about chips, cores, and threads, start there. If you understand chips, cores, and threads, you will understand the significance of this story:

From the link: 

Signs of the chip were found by a third-party Mac developer in test logs, and it appears to feature a 40-core GPU and a 16-core CPU with 12 high performance cores and four efficiency cores. 

Comparatively, the current ‌M2‌ Max chip features a 12-core CPU and a 38-core GPU. The test machine also includes 48GB memory, but there will likely be higher upgrade options available as the current MacBook Pro supports up to 96GB memory. 

Apple's ‌M3‌ Max chip is expected to be built on a new 3-nanometer process, resulting in speed and efficiency improvements compared to the ‌M2‌ Max chip. 

Apple is testing the chip in an unreleased high-end MacBook Pro that's codenamed "J514."

Look at that: not only a 3nm chip but also a 16-core CPU and a 40-core GPU.

Just two months ago, we were talking about the "old" M2 chip, an 8-core CPU and a 10-core GPU (8+10 = 18). Now, 16 + 40 = 56 cores.

Neil Armstrong went to the moon with  .... well, a whole lot less. And he was using a government-funded computer only available to NASA engineers, and now high school seniors headed to PoDunk U are buying new Apple computers which they will need to replace next year.

I'll tell you a story about a high school senior going to PoDunk U in the Southlake, TX, Apple store. But it's part of a longer story, so you will have to wait.

Even number of cores: this is why you always see an even number of cores. Link here.

Intel: was having trouble with 10-nm chips when Apple/TSM was moving to 3-nm chips. But that wasn't their only problem. The company also had problems with cores. Link here. 

Trivia: etiology of "cores." No idea where the word "cores" came from. But wouldn't Steve Jobs be laughing about that now. Deciding decades ago to call his company "Apple," not knowing that "cores" would be the heart of his apples. LOL. 

Okay, gotta go. It's gonna be 106°F today. Going out for the first swim of the day. I will swim this morning for one hour; one hour this afternoon; and, one hour this evening, 9:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. when the pool closes down by city ordinance.

Disclaimer: this page was not proofread. There will be content and typographical errors.