Locator: 44810JOBS.
Locator: 44810ECON.
Overheard in Starbucks this morning:
- Liz Sonders, "Yesterday the data was in line with past recessions."
- Charlie Munger, "Yeah, we're in a mild recession."
- ADP bureaucrat working from "home," "Here, hold my coffee. You're looking at the wrong data."
I'm old enough to know two things:
- business cycles are called cycles for a reason; recessions cycle through; yees, we will eventually have another recession;
- job growth like this is not consistent with a recession
But if this is a recession, give me more.
- I can accumulate equities at bargain basement prices; and,
- I can park my money almost anywhere and get 5%.
Checking the math:
- Okay, let's see.
- estimated: 180,000
- had it been 188,000, that would have been a 4% miss [(188 - 180 / 180 = 4.4%]
- had it been 208,000, that would have been a 16% miss [(208 - 180) / 180 = 15.6%]
- had it been 228,000, that would have been a 27% miss [(228 - 180) / 180 = 26.7%]
- But .... drum roll .... we got:
278,000
- Doing the math: (278,000 - 180,000), that would have been a 54% miss (208 - 178) / 178 = 54.4%].
- Checking:
- 180,000 * 1.544 = 278,000.
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