Thursday Earnings — Happy Days Are Here Again — Well, At Least For The Moment — The Word For The Day: Disinflation -- February 1, 2023

Dalio: trust JPow.

Phil: six more weeks of winter.

Productivity number: one of the best ever!! Employee costs come in lower than expected. Dow turns green, but now red.

Fed rate: risk of rate going higher than 5% goes way down. Fed rate may go up another 25 to 50 bp but that’s simply a rounding error (“their” words, not mine). Dow red again but S&P green.

“Disinflation”: https://newsletters.yahoo.net/H/2/v60000018611c915e4b02a07f4bbcfbb48/9271800a-e8a3-4386-9d71-53b9ef5ea876/HTML.

ECB; increases rate by 50 basis points, and sounds like “much” more yet to come” on top of high energy prices; EU markets all up today.

NYC is importing huge amounts of gasoline: fears summer shortage! Link: https://twitter.com/BrianGitt/status/1621134531913998337.

Global oil demand going forward, huge: https://twitter.com/Rigzone/status/1621131422172856323.

Global natural gas demand: no sign of slowing. Link: https://twitter.com/SStapczynski/status/1621091781269164032.

US diesel: production could surge — https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=55399&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=EIAsocial&utm_id=FirstUpdate.

Selected companies:

• Eli Lilly (LLY): before market open; $1.78; $1.94 vs $1.83; huge beat on EPS; $2.00, but misses on top line (sort of); great guidance; type II diabetes drug “through the roof”; obesity drug also unprecedented results; easy to find volunteers for more studies required by FDA.
  
• COP: before market open; $2.18; $2.86 vs $2.72; misses by 19 cents; declares regular dividend of 51 cents; variable, 60 cents.
  
• CAH: before market open; $1.14; $1.21 vs $1.13; actual, $1.32: revenue also beat (Zacks); 
  
• GOOGL: after market close; $1.18; $1.14 vs $1.14;
  
• AMZN: after market close: 17 cents; 19 cents vs 15 cents;
  
• AAPL: after market close: $1.94; $1.96 vs $1.93;
  
• SBUX: after market close, 77 cents; 81 cents vs 77 cents;
  
• QCOM: after market close, $2.35; $2.42 vs $2.35.
  
• HSY: $1.77; time not supplied; $1.82 vs $1.78;
  
• F: 62 cents; time not supplied; 57 cents vs 60 cents;

META: up $29 in pre-market trading. Thursday morning; day after JPow’s remarks.

COP / APLNG

• link here;

• after picking up an additional 10% interest in APLNG last February, COP is likely to see a $600-plus million distribution from the asset in Q4. 
• that will be a bright-spot in a quarter where, sequentially, oil and gas prices were lower. However, COP's full-year FY22 earnings are likely to come in ~$14/share. 
• perhaps more interesting is what COP decides to do with its variable dividend - which, last quarter, was $0.70/share. My estimate is for a variable dividend declaration of $0.56/share.
• APLNG:
• from wiki:
• Australia Pacific LNG, Queensland, Australia Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) is an incorporated company owned by Origin Energy, US giant ConocoPhillips and China's Sinopec.
• The project consists of development of Australia Pacific LNG's gas fields in the Surat and Bowen Basins, construction of a 530 km gas transmission pipeline from the gas fields to an LNG facility on Curtis Island and construction of an LNG facility on Curtis Island.
• On 26 October 2017, gas producer and exporter APLNG entered into a sales agreement with Origin Energy, to supply 41 petajoules of gas under a 14-month contract starting 1 November 2017. The contract brings the company's total commitment to 186 PJ for 2018, representing almost 30% of Australian east coast domestic gas market demand.