Most folks did not hear JPow using this word, but he used it more than once.
Fed rate:
- up twice more this year unless things get appreciably worse;
- 25 bp today and 25 bp twice more this year
- Americans have gotten use to current Fed rate
- current Fed rate is the new floor for the foreseeable future
- which means: that another 75 bp increase by end of year is a non-event
- so many opportunities to be hawkish -- and never took the bait
- 25 bp in March and then pause and / or one more 25 bp before summer
Jobs:
- finally seeing some clearing of the "fog" regarding jobs
- all good news
- analysts spent too much time on jobs
- JPow seemed much less concerned about jobs
Covid-19:
- it's over; get over it
JPow:
- seems comfortable
- no longer angry
The only worry:
- GOP delays raising the debt ceiling
- the debt ceiling will be raised but the concern is if the government defaults for even one hour -- the message that would send
Dow:
- down as much as 300 points before JPow spoke
- now, Dow is up almost 100 points
- technology stocks leading
- NASDAQ positive more than 2%
- investors seem "more with it" than the analysts
- ignore the analysts; watch the market
- US dollar "sinking" -- in the current environment -- good to see
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