China, Covid, And Finally Understanding The "Why" -- The New Yorker -- November 30, 2022

I finally understand it. It finally makes sense.

China. 

The lock downs. 

The craziness.

There two competing (?) theories:

• politics: this theory has to do with power; Xi's obsession with remaining in absolute control;
• medical: the other has to do with Xi's genuine fear of Covid-19 getting out of control.

In the big scheme of things, 

• there really aren't that many active cases of Covid-19 in the country; and, 
• even more interesting, the seriousness of the disease is minimal (as reported by others, the Chinese no longer fear the disease; and the mortality in China from Covid -- where healthcare is much less sophisticated than that in the west -- is 0.025%. 
• Compare that with a mortality rate of 1.1 percent in the US.

Okay, so I have flip-flopped on this issue. I initially thought it was a political issue -- Xi using Covid-19 as an excuse to lock up those who disagree / disagreed with him; even if that meant shutting down entire cities that might threaten his regime.

Most recently, I have stated on the blog that it is my opinion Xi is absolutely terrified of Covid-19 and what might happen to China if CCovid truly got out of control.

The media continues to oscillate around those two issues: are the lock downs a tool to maintain political power or a real (medical) concern for the implications for China if the disease gets out of control?

So, that's where most of us stand -- the "us" being who even follow the Chinese Covid story and care. 

Break, break.

I subscribe to The New Yorker. 

As part of that subscription I get a "daily New Yorker note." 

Today, (Wednesday, November 30, 2022) the "daily New Yorker note" had a long essay titled, "Why China's COVID policies led to protest." The full title: "How Covid's policies and party politics set the stage for the protests in China."

Whether the author of that essay -- Isaac Chotiner -- realizes it or not, he stumbled into solving the dilemma. Is it politics or is it medical paranoia that is driving the massive lock downs?

It's all politics. But the reasons remain obscure for almost all Americans, including me until now. 

Absolutely brilliant.

Xi is only part of the problem and it appears he's going to have a major, major challenge turning this ship around. A speech by Xi ending his "zero Covid policy" is not going to work. It's much, much more complicated than that. But very, very easy to explain / understand when one understands the Chinese political structure.