Saturday, October 8, 2022

Themes -- 2022

Locator: 3320022A.

Briefly:

  • mRNA
  • Ukraine
  • crypto
  • diesel
  • coal 
  • LNG
  • WTI
    • US policy: "no more drilling"
    • Prince MBS: "Saudi first"

******************************
2022

December 4, 2022, added:

  • Apple: re-shoring; leaving China

European de-industrialization:

This was originally posted July 14, 2022, link here, but somehow the link was broken / lost. Nothing new here, just some housekeeping. 

For the blog:

  • a new "2022 Themes": "not the future" -- things we're not going to see despite "group think"

Bullish:

  • the way WTI has performed in past thirty days has been absolutely perfect for investors
  • will explain later
  • Buffett has it figured out
  • see RBN Energy below

Gasoline demand: wow!

  • stand-alone post here.
  • possible explanation? I don't buy it (no pun intended) 
    • to be clear, I don't "accept" the possible explanation 

Diesel: with regard to US energy, this might be the big story for 2022;

Coal:

Dire:

  • before twitter went down this a.m., everything pointed to deteriorating conditions:
    • energy situation in Europe;
    • war in Ukraine;
    • US economy;
  • Tesla: Karpathy departs; gives no reason; amicable separation apparently;
    • Tesla's head of AI is out; at The Verge;
    • Karpathy is Tesla's AI
    • Tesla without AI is just another car company -- Elon Musk
  • PEMEX: link at twitter;

Wages:

  • inflation: 9.1%
  • real hourly wages: down 4.1%

Wages? What inflationary pressure. Link here real hourly earnings hit a new all-time low.

Crypto:

LNG:

Aluminum cans:

  • as if we didn't have enough to worry about -- California's recycling program crumbles
  • beer industry will struggle without aluminum cans
  • affects small brewers
  • almost reads like a press release from glass bottle suppliers;
  • I don't see a problem
  • I won't drink from a can if given a choice, and I never buy beer in a can; always bottles;
  • more on this later

OXY: Buffett is nearing the "magic" 20% mark

  • at 20%, everything changes
  • OXY's net income expected to exceed $10 billion this year
  • link here.
  • at 20%, the threshold that would let it record its proportionate share of Occidental's earnings with its own results, known as the equity method of accounting.
  • also owns $10 billion of Occidental preferred stock that throws off $800 million of annual dividends, and has warrants to buy another 83.9 million common shares for $5 billion.
  • Berkshire uses the equity method for its 26.6% stake in Kraft Heinz Co
  • OXY's share price has doubled this year
  • in 2010, Berkshire bought the BNSF railroad for $26.5 billion after earlier accumulating a 22.6% stake.

Climate:

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