Oh My Goodness: Oil Surges At The Close, Going Into The Weekend; Seven New Permits; Six Permits Renewed; Two DUCs Reported As Completed; Nice Halo Effect -- March 4, 2022

Covid-19: it's way too early to tell for sure, but the vaccine data released by the CDC this week suggests the vaccine "rollout" program in the US is quickly coming to an end. 

The numbers suggest folks that plan on being immunized are immunized and the only ones getting their booster shots. Those not planning on getting immunized will probably not get immunized unless their livelihoods (jobs) require it. 

The vaccine won't be mandated by the government (no vaccine passports; no "yellow" vaccine certificates); it will all be left up to employees and local jurisdictions.Theme parks will probably establish their own rules but will be quite flexible. Masks will be mandated in rare exceptions, e.g., airports and while flying (which, of course, in the latter case, is done all for show since air filtration system on commercial aircraft are second to none for filtering air).

Nothing is so bad that it can't get worse, see these headlines:

• Europe turns to South Africa for coal as it shuns Russia (Greta's head is exploding);
• energy crisis in Europe worsens as natural gas prices double in a week;
• the UK has no credible plan for its energy transition (maybe Ms Granholm does)
• US gasoline prices surge by 20 cents in a week (so why hasn't President Biden issued an executive order to life federal excise taxes on gasoline, already; if he did, Governor Newsom would follow suit in California)

Oil:

• WTI: up 6.8%; up $7.33; closed at $115.00.
• Brent: up 6.6%; up $7.31; closed at $117.80.

Headline: as I noted earlier today, Biden is leading from behind. 

Now we learn that the White House is considering ban on Russian oil imports, after pressure from the rest of the world, including Ukraine and Nancy Pelosi. My hunch: he called Jay Powell to find out how that would affect the fight on inflation. It's counterintuitive, but rising energy prices are, in fact, deflationary. Banning oil from Russia is a two-fer for the government:

• it makes Jay Powell's job easier fighting inflation; and,
• it allows President Biden to blame high gasoline prices on "doing the right thing," banning oil from Russian (and kowtowing to Nancy Pelosi, or calling her bluff -- she represents the state that will soon see $7-diesel and $6-gasoline).

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$115.00	3/4/2022	03/04/2021	03/04/2020	03/04/2019	03/04/2018
Active Rigs	31	15	50	68	59

Seven new permits, #38805 - #38811, inclusive:

• Operator: Crescent Point Energy
• Field: Winner (Williams County)
• Comments: 
• CPEUSC has permits for seven wells in SESW 12-158-100; the wells will be sited 350 FSL and between 1520 FWL and 1695 FWL; 
• the permits: three (3) DeFrance; four (4) Fantuz.

Six permits renewed:

• SHD: three Buffalo permits; two Moose permits; and, one Rocky permit, all in McLean County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 38047, 828, Slawson, Muskrat Federal 5-28-33TFH, Big Bend, minimal production,
• 37676, 4,095, MRO, Copeland USA 34-31H, another huge MRO well, first production, 9/21; t--; cum 169K 1/22 
• most neighboring wells still off line, but at least two with nice halo effect;
  

Production profile for the MRO DUC reported today:

• 37676:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	26875	26653	11561	6118	5467	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	21	12877	12972	5963	26312	25862	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	30	32104	32143	14863	52499	51480	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	31	37831	38051	16953	50537	49378	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	29	59811	59260	35114	68657	66821	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	22	0	0	132	78	0	78