Third Round -- Notes From All Over -- The Late Saturday Morning Edition -- March 13, 2021

Back to normal: previously posted that Texas would be back to normal in less than two months (don't take that out of context) -- today, Bloomberg is reporting that "Texas refineries are nearly back to normal." 

• sixteen of eighteen plants shut by the February Freeze have started some or all units;
• at least one refiner may run at full rates on better margins
• while it’s still more than two months before summer driving season starts, there’s money to be made. A measure of profit margins on making gasoline, diesel and other refined products relative to crude oil, known as the 3-2-1 crack spread, surged above $22 a barrel Friday, March 13, 2021
• Total's Port Arthur refinery on the Texas Gulf Coast, for one, has nearly completed its restart and may run at full rates by early next week because of market improvements; isn't Total one of the European E&Ps going green? Asking for a friend.
• as of Friday, March 13, 2021, the last two refineries that had not restarted any units yet, Shell Deer Park and Chevron Pasadena, were expecting to begin the process over the next several days

Scorecard:

8 Back to normal:

• Marathon El Paso: 131k b/d
• Valero Port Arthur: 335k b/d
• Valero Corpus Christi: 290k b/d
• Exxon Beaumont: 369k b/d
• Valero Houston: 205k b/d
• Valero Texas City: 225k b/d
• Motiva Port Arthur: 607k b/d
• Delek Big Spring: 73k b/d

8 Restarting:

• Citgo Corpus Christi: 167.5k b/d. Everything restarted except the coker
• Exxon Baytown: 560.5k b/d. Restarted hydrocracker, Pipestill 7 crude section
• LyondellBasell Houston: 263.8k b/d. Everything up but one CDU and one coker
• Flint Hills Corpus: 338.5k b/d. Restarted 265k b/d West Plant, 73.5k b/d East Plant start continues
• Total Port Arthur: 225.5k b/d. Still restarting FCC, small CDU, may be back up early next week
• Marathon Galveston Bay: 585k b/d. Multiple units restarted, including largest crude section
• Valero Three Rivers: 89k b/d. Catalytic reformer, hydrocracker, FCC restarted
• Valero McKee: 195k b/d. FCC restarted Feb. 21, hydrocracker still down

2 Preparing to Initiate Restart:

• Shell Deer Park: 318k b/d. Making equipment repairs, set to begin restart next several days
• Chevron Pasadena: 112.2k b/d. Has initiated restart -- shouldn't this be moved up on the scorecard? There must be a fine line between "restarting" and "initiating a restart." Maybe it's a NASA thing.
  

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Energy Shares Could Surge Next Week

Reuters link here. 

I wonder whatever happened to John Kemp, the Reuters energy analyst? I quit following him when he became blatantly political. Sort of like me. LOL. 

Investors betting on U.S. energy shares have enjoyed a blistering rally, as the sector leads a move into value and economically sensitive stocks that has gripped the equity market. How much further that run continues could hinge on the success of the economic recovery, supply dynamics in oil markets and whether companies can stay disciplined on spending.

The near doubling in the price of crude has helped make shares of oil and gas companies - for years a losing bet - one of the best performing areas of the market, with outsized gains in the stocks of companies such as oil major Exxon Mobil Corp and Diamondback Energy Inc, which have surged 89% and 231%, respectively, since early November.

With a gain of over 80% in that time, the S&P 500 energy sector is back to levels last seen in February 2020, when the stock market began its plunge as the COVID-19 outbreak took its toll on the economy.

And so many of these companies pay great dividends and are likely to announce increases.

Whoo-hoo!

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

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Rig Count -- Baker Hughes

In case you missed it, even as crude oil prices surge:

• rigs
• dipped
• by one
• US rigs now number 402 units 
• one year ago: 792
• off-shore: also dropped one to 13, compared to 19 a year ago
• Canada she 25 rigs (happens every spring, due to thaw): stands at 116, a net loss includes a 22-oil rig decrease; now stands at 58 oil rigs; down from 175 a year ago;
• most interesting: Baker Hughes derives information partly from Enverus which produces daily rig counts using GPS tracking units;
  

Link here. 

Saudi Arabia: rig count, unchanged.