"You say tomâto, I say tomāto: JPMorgan Chase --purely coincidental. The other day I was talking about the difference between and economic recession and an economic depression. The former (recession) has a pretty good definition; the latter (depression), no one agrees on except in very, very general terms.
It is simply said that a depression lasts years and has an unemployment rate of 20%.
That's what I posted based on a financial site that discussed the difference between recessions and depressions. Current first time claims for unemployment insurance are about 300,000.
JPM Chase on Friday said this next week unemployment would hit 20% from the current 3.5%. I'll post the screenshot later today. A 20% unemployment rate next week will get folks' attention. And 20% unemployment is one-half of the "depression" equation. The other is time.
I thought I was getting ahead of my headlights -- talking about depression -- no one else had mentioned it, and I still haven't see it in mainstream press .... until today.
The point is, even if 80 percent of the pre-crisis economy comes back by mid-summer, you’re still looking at a major recession, if not a near depression. Mauldin, by the way, has been predicting for the last couple years that a recession would see the federal budget deficit soar to $2 trillion. Now that would be regarded as “the good old days.” This year’s federal budget deficit is more likely to be over $4 trillion. And that may be optimistic.
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Twilight Zone
OPEC+ deal. I would never have guessed it but apparently Mexico really is holding the better cards. The OPEC+ agreement remains on hold -- Mexico refuses to "give in." Who would have ever guessed? Bloomberg has the story. Archived.
As Mexico and Saudi Arabia fight over a deal to bring the oil-price war to an end, Mexico has a powerful defense: a massive Wall Street hedge shielding it from low prices.
With talks well into their third day, the Mexican sovereign oil hedge, which insures the Latin American country against low prices and is considered a state secret, is a factor that may make the country less inclined to accept the OPEC+ agreement.
For the last two decades, Mexico has bought so-called Asian style put options from a small group of investment banks and oil companies, in what’s considered Wall Street’s largest -- and most closely guarded -- annual oil deal.
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Atmospheric CO2
Atmospheric C02 hits record high. They're reading the blog.
Folks are eagerly waiting for the April / May / June atmospheric CO2 levels. Regardless of they "come in," it will speak volumes about human contribution to atmospheric CO2.
Links of interest:
- CO2 reaches record high, 318 ppm, realclimatescience, April 10, 2020;
- March CO2 levels at Mauna Loa show no obvious effect from global economic downturn, what'supwiththat, April 7, 2020;
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Renewables
Capacity doesn't equal generation: Speaking of atmospheric CO2, more propaganda from the faux environmentalists, notalotofpeopleknowthat, April 7, 2020;
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FBI Collusion
Russia: FBI has information that the Steele dossier was part of a "Russian disinformation campaign,"a and one thing the FBI knows well: "disinformation campaigns."
Information hidden in redacted footnotes.
Link: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/declassified-footnotes-show-fbi-knew-christopher-steele-may-have-been-part-of-russian-disinformation-campaign.
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The Apple Page
Smartphone activations. Apple's best single quarter since 2016 --Apple (iOS) devices accounted for 44 percent of all US smartphone activations during the first calendar quarter of 2020, the high number of activations Apple has seen in a single quarter since 2016. Link here. Apple closed its retail stores on March 13, 2020, and they remain closed.
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Daily Wuhan Flu Thermal Check
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