Spend Some Time On This Graphic --- October 23, 2019

From twitter today:

This graphic is worth a thousand words, but let me add 250 or so more words.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Disclaimer: I know almost nothing about natural gas. I have a pretty good feeling for the oil sector in the Bakken, and perhaps a pretty good feeling for the oil sector in the US, but I have no clue what's really going on in the Permian and I doubt anyone really knows what's going on in Saudi Arabia, OPEC, the Mideast except perhaps Prince MBS, and I'm not sure he even knows, and if he does, his power is significantly constrained by others.

So, with that, back to the graphic.

Later, October 30, 2019, IEA data:

• Southeast Asia: energy demand, population growing faster than domestic supply
• Southeast Asia on its way to becoming net importer of energy (will join Europe and the Antarctic)
• over-reliance on wind, solar won't help situation
• energy imports for Southeast Asia: by 2040, an annual energy bill of $200 billion -- that's billion with a "b"; 
• quick, pop quiz: this report (at the link) covers ten countries in ASEAN. Which one of the following four countries is NOT a part of ASEAN? China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan.

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Original Post

Background, observations, comments:

Chinese population,  animation:


Chinese energy:

• nuclear: I have no idea where China is going with nuclear, but the tea leaves suggest it's not a factor 
• coal: huge smog; health problems; not a global warming issue for China
• natural gas: China moving as quickly as possible to close coal plants; only real replacement is natural gas

Graphic above, natural gas:

• domestic production growth practically stagnant over time
• natural gas imports via pipeline grew significantly between 2010 and 2014, but then leveled off (which makes sense)
• natural gas imports LNG growth took off in 2015 but really soared in 2018 (most recent data provided)

Recent headlines:

• out-years: China is going to need much more natural gas
• near term: 2019 - 2020 winter is expected to be a huge challenge for China; pipeline is not easily scalable; tankers are very, very scalable;