Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- October 21, 2019

The market: wow, what happened. The Dow closed essentially flat today, up 0.21% which is about as flat as one gets before going negative, but yet look at this:

• cherry picking:
• HES: up 1.5%
• CVX: up 1.67%
• EOG: up 5.02% -- wow!
• UNP: up; 3.48% -- wow!
• AAPL: up 1.73% -- but even more so, up $4.10, going over $240.51/share; market cap: $1.087 trillion
• MSFT: market cap -- $1.057 trillion
• SRE: up a bit
• MPC: red/flat -- started strong but then faded
• so, what happened; without looking at anything, the only thing that explains "all" of this -- positive news on China trade, or possibly more hints from the Fed (doubt the latter; putting money on the former)
• so let's check, WTI: own 0.37% -- and yet HES, CVX, EOG, all up nicely.
• can't find anything; must be something the movers and shakers on Wall Street know
• a few more
• PFE: absolutely flat; paying 3.95%
• PCG: the troubled PG&E utility in California; San Jose mayor wants to take it "private" -- make it a consumer-owned utility; SRE needs to be watching closely; I think there are ways SRE could use this to their advantage; never let a crisis go to waste; strike while the iron is hot

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Merkel: new nominee for the 2019 Geico Rock Award; admits that "multi-culturalism" has "utterly" failed. Link here. Anyone paying attention knew that it had failed years ago; and anyone paying attention knew it was bound to fail.

We lived in Germany for seven years while serving in the USAF. The western Turks were the most likely to integrate into the German economy. They didn't. The new arrivals from the Mideast will never integrate.

The nominees for the 2019 Geico Rock Award are tracked here.

Germany argued for open borders because their "domestic" birth rate was negative (more folks dying/emigrating) than were being born. At the linked zerohedge article:

According to the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), Germany lacks approximately 400,000 skilled workers. 

One can be positively, absolutely sure that the recent arrivals from the Mideast are not "skilled workers" and will not become "skilled workers" any time soon.

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Jet Fuel From South Korean Refiners

Hello.

In case that is hard to read:

Jet fuel imported by Europe from South Korea in November, 2019, yet to be reported, could very well fall to zero ... nada ... zilch ... nil ... because of the high cost of freight.

The high cost of sea-going tankers has gotten so high it is not economical to ship from South Korea to Europe.

No tankers have been booked to leave South Korea this month.

One wonders to whom Europe is turning? Russia? LOL.

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All Politics

Based on Polls As of October 21, 2019

As Reported By RealClearPolitics

Link here.

Most recent debate: October 15, 2019

Two most recent polls:

• SUSA (SurveyUSA), October 15 - October 16, 2019, day or and day following the debate;
• Politico: October 16 - October 16: the day following the debate

The Politico poll: the only poll taken in a 24-hour period immediately following the debate, the debate in which the Drudge Report clearly posted Klobuchar as the big winner:

• Biden: 31% (one of his best numbers in recent polls)
• Pocahontas: 21% (a really, really bad polling number for her)
• Sanders: 18% (about where he's been polling)
• Buttigieg: 6%
• Klobuchar: 2%

Mainstream media:

• either has "favorites"; and/or,
• wants to keep the appearance of a horse race

October 21, 2019, T+43: fact check, now that two polls have come out that include the day of and the day following the most recent debate:

• the media buzz: Pocahontas surging, Biden faltering; in fact --
• the national polls show Biden dropping a bit (trend for him, troubling), while mixed for Pocahontas; depends on the poll; overall, maybe Pocahontas has gained a point to 25% but subtle). In the Iowa and New Hampshire polls, she and Biden are statistically tied, which has been true for quite some time)
• Sanders is dropping, slowly but steadily; now down to 15% but that was before his huge Queens, NYC, rally, attended by all the folks that would have had Amazon jobs had AOC not stopped that corporate greed
• the media buzz: Buttigieg is surging: in fact --
• last five polls -- 4 - 8 - 7 - 6 - 5 with an overall average of 6.0.
• in Iowa: 14 -- 16 -- 13; with an overall average of 14.3
• in New Hampshire: 10 -- 7 -- 9; with an overall average of 8.7
• in South Carolina: 2.5%
• the media buzz: Klobuchar has gained momentum; it's her time to strike; in fact --
• she polls #8 of 13 candidates; in every poll, and we mean every poll: 2.0%; not an iota of movement one way or the other; 
• Iowa: are you kidding? also 2.0%
• New Hampshire: much, much better, at 2.3%. LOL.
• South Carolina: 1%
• everybody else: statistically at zero