I had not heard of the Cass Freight Index before. [Later: see comments. A reader sent me the link to the Cass Freight Index.] The index is posted here.
Google.
If anyone wants to weigh in on this subject, that is, the risk of recession later this year (2019) based on what the Cass Freight Index is showing, feel free to do so.
All I can say is what I posted just a few days ago regarding a recession: it seems "they've been talking about a recession being just around the corner for the past five years." We're still waiting.
Personally I'm not worried.
But I am curious. Any thoughts on the Cass Freight Index and recession worries?
i just stumbled onto this: What the Transportation Services Index, Dow Transportation Index, and Cass Freight Index Tell Us
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bts.gov/topics/freight-transportation/technical-brief-what-transportation-services-index-dow-transportation
(US Bureau of Transportation Statistics)
Much appreciated. Thank you so much.
Deletenow, another random post comes up that answer's your reader's original question:
ReplyDeleteFreight shipments within the US by all modes of transportation – truck, rail, air, and barge – fell 5.9% in July 2019, compared to July 2018, the eighth month in a row of year-over-year declines, according to the Cass Freight Index for Shipments, which tracks shipments of consumer and industrial goods but not of bulk commodities such as grains.
https://wolfstreet.com/2019/08/16/us-freight-shipments-steepest-drops-since-financial-crisis-overcapacity/
is that due to CBR going underground? it doesn't appear so:
Only six of the 20 carload commodities categories showed gains compared to July last year, with the biggest, petroleum & petroleum products, surging 11.5% as a result of the US shale-oil production boom.
so the Cass Freight Index is down badly in spite of the oil component being up...i would suggest this might be a better economic indicator than the gasoline demand you often site...
I agree 1000% that "freight" would be a better (leading) indicator than "gasoline demand." In my defense, I'm pretty naive about all this stuff, and had never even thought of looking for a Traffic Shipments Index. LOL.
DeleteSo, I'll agree with you that "freight" is better than "gasoline demand" but I'll still keep showing the weekly gasoline demand --
... you know, viscerally .... freight shipments can use all forms of energy: gasoline, diesel, natural gas, electricity ... and then, as you noted, there are alternatives to shipping above ground (shipping below ground: CBR, for example). And, then, of course, the whole "coal" thing, now that wind and solar farms are "shipping" their product via high-energy voltage lines..... so many things to consider....
I'll end up using both: freight and gasoline demand.
Wow, this is a tough one. I know, rationally, you are correct, but emotionally I'm hooked on "gasoline demand." So no argument.
I guess this is why the Fed chairman has such a tough job and gets paid the "big bucks."
to be clear, i didn't have a problem with gasoline demand as an indicator; i was responding generally to your question "Any thoughts on the Cass Freight Index and recession worries?" with my sense that the freight index might be a better indicator than gasoline....but there's hundreds of indicators, and none should be looked at in isolation...
DeleteThank you, much appreciated.
DeleteOne of the problems with the blog: it evolves and I evolve. When I first started out, I knew nothing; now I'm learning just enough to be dangerous. LOL. In the "old" days I was incredibly naive, and had no idea how naive I was. Or, as Rumsfeld might say, "I did not know what I did not know." Now I know what I don't know, and not sure how I want to deal with it.
don't worry about it too much....i doubt that you'll be nominated for Fed Chairman anytime soon...
DeleteLOL. Enough for tonight. See you Monday.
Delete