Wednesday, February 1, 2017

Off The Net For Awhile; Tongue-In-Cheek; Not To Be Taken Seriously -- At Least Not Yet -- February 1, 2017

I'm consistently amazed how inefficient Mother Nature is. Or perhaps, how efficient Bakken tight shale operators are in comparison to Mother Nature.

It has been said that any well taken off-line for any significant period of time will show an increase in production once it's brought back on status. ("Significant period of time" in the oil patch is defined as about 3 - 8 months for purpose of this discussion.)

Here's an example of Mother Nature's inefficiency.

Note the peak production of this well after being fracked in the month of May, 2009: 11,976 bbls, which works out to 14,279 barrels for the full 31 days of the month (in fact, it would have been slightly less due to the severe decline rate of the Bakken).

After being fracked in 2009, after Mother Nature "shut-in" this well for a gazillion years, it's production was about 14,000 bbls in that first month, after which its production plunged to 2,000 bbls/month only six or seven months later.

However, a few years later, this well was taken off-line (not for a gazillion years as Mother Nature had done earlier) but for only a few months -- about six months in fact. After being taken off-line for only six months, look at the production in May, 2013: 14,798 bbls (for a 31-day month that would extrapolate to 15,291 bbls of crude oil.
[Just for the fun of it, boe:
May, 2009: 2,365 + 14,279 = 16,644 boe
May, 2013: 5,002 + 15,291 = 20,293 boe]
After being fracked in early 2009, this well was down to about 2,000 bbl of crude oil/month by the seventh month.

Note, after this well was taken off-line for six months, it's production surged, and remained well above 2,000 bbls of crude oil/month for the next two years, in fact jumping to over 4,000 bbls in two consecutive months. 

For newbies: this is all done with tongue in cheek. Pay no attention to this. It was just something that caught my attention: how much production in a Bakken well can improve by just taking it off-line for a few months. Of course, it begs a question. In fact, it begs a lot of questions.

Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-2016304132399507320732
BAKKEN10-201631000000
BAKKEN9-20160000000
BAKKEN8-20160000000
BAKKEN7-20160000000
BAKKEN6-20160000000
BAKKEN5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-20160000000
BAKKEN3-20160000000
BAKKEN2-20160000000
BAKKEN1-20160000000
BAKKEN12-20150000000
BAKKEN11-20150000000
BAKKEN10-20150000000
BAKKEN9-20150000000
BAKKEN8-20150000000
BAKKEN7-20150000000
BAKKEN6-20150000000
BAKKEN5-20150000000
BAKKEN4-20152322665184134130
BAKKEN3-201527195118042213065301154
BAKKEN2-201528191718962192869279079
BAKKEN1-201531189518702422684263747
BAKKEN12-20143116311632291353735370
BAKKEN11-201430168716463372419239920
BAKKEN10-201431199422453493822380220
BAKKEN9-20143015861650562376437604
BAKKEN8-201429418844648568337830334
BAKKEN7-201431449139771011914271152027
BAKKEN6-2014301821219561637933201592
BAKKEN5-201431220818177704881482160
BAKKEN4-20141211051075403220011751025
BAKKEN3-20140000000
BAKKEN2-20141312481518427321103211
BAKKEN1-20141115991164590168001680
BAKKEN12-2013315332554615281373313168565
BAKKEN11-20133090359648202822446224460
BAKKEN10-2013316597653713141157111378193
BAKKEN9-20133078688076157314471144710
BAKKEN8-20133198819578193018210182100
BAKKEN7-2013311216212586251221742217420
BAKKEN6-20132789858819264715599145751024
BAKKEN5-20133014798149538053290451721011835
BAKKEN4-20134283620322648447724162061
BAKKEN3-20130000000
BAKKEN2-20130000000
BAKKEN1-20131300000
BAKKEN12-20122622540000
BAKKEN11-201226980660740179917990
BAKKEN10-20123114041906717249824980
BAKKEN9-20122110941165233149314930
BAKKEN8-201216728524542117211720
BAKKEN7-20126184245181991990
BAKKEN6-2012309511603111246124610
BAKKEN5-20123113241129282271327130
BAKKEN4-20123013641484445225222520
BAKKEN3-2012241310501547197119710
BAKKEN2-2012919991620000
BAKKEN1-2012311217648218223222320
BAKKEN12-201117106511793674774770
BAKKEN11-2011261264135714719831437546
BAKKEN10-2011145801031148866131735
BAKKEN9-2011301105143692227332402331
BAKKEN8-20113113319333842761275110
BAKKEN7-20113019821468518353935390
BAKKEN6-2011220523972402400
BAKKEN5-2011251301139856122882188100
BAKKEN4-201153710210731360371
BAKKEN3-201117687965112140614060
BAKKEN2-20112812671453220250522220
BAKKEN1-201131143089425924362116320
BAKKEN12-2010311440195821534572429387
BAKKEN11-20103014461433264506632590
BAKKEN10-201030137513772422550239840
BAKKEN9-20103015091348251338933650
BAKKEN8-20103117101821391271010531650
BAKKEN7-201011163621552691371370
BAKKEN6-201020179513146836816810
BAKKEN5-20102924252017377427342730
BAKKEN4-20102916122250203183918390
BAKKEN3-20103116911522238239923990
BAKKEN2-201028936975240177717770
BAKKEN1-20102715411193515194819480
BAKKEN12-20093016201627492180618060
BAKKEN11-20092825823246593376337630
BAKKEN10-20092924822141827540854080
BAKKEN9-20093033433248892709670960
BAKKEN8-20091827992413365298914241565
BAKKEN7-20092331963198570217002170
BAKKEN6-20092644804667790560005600
BAKKEN5-2009261197611313128011900011900

For future reference, the well:
  • 17755, 543, Statoil, Roscoe 2H-8, Banks, t5/09; cum 186K 11/16; 

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