A Burr Under My Saddle -- July 25, 2015

I don't think I will link any of the articles or previous posts on this issue. It's not worth the time. But The Dickinson Press article suggesting that the fracking revolution led to an increase in high school dropouts got me thinking. LOL. Thinking. That's a dangerous thought.

The premise of the article was that high-paying jobs in the oil patch, specifically fracking, lured high school males to drop out of high school.

I doubt fracking companies hired many (any?) males (or females, for that matter) under the age of 18. This is dangerous work and if they hired anyone under 18, they were 17 years old, going on 18.

The number of 18-year-olds in high school is a fraction -- nay, a drop in the bucket -- of all students from eighth grade on, when dropping out of school begins.

But let's say it did. Let's say fracking led to the national high school dropout rate rising.

Think about that.

Fracking existed in a handful of geographic areas, most of them far from high-density urban areas where all these 18-year-old future dropouts would have been going to school. New York state bans fracking. I doubt many New York inner city, urban-rapping, Nike-wearing, boombox-carrying, Apple ear-bud wearing youth were catching the Greyhound bus to find fracking jobs in Pennsylvania. If for no other reason: it's hard, hard work.

But if higher pay lures 18-year-olds to drop out of school, imagine what $15 / hour for flipping hamburgers is going to do. Wow, wow, wow. Ninth-graders will start dropping out of school like flies on manure to get a $15/hour job. The seniors who supplement their meager social security income by working as Wal-Mart greeters will now be competing with hip 18-year-olds who will be more than happy to glad-hand folks walking into Wal-Mart for $15 / hour. [Which is still less, by the way, than the $17 paid at the Wal-Mart in Williston.]

And even if they don't drop out of school, the after-school work at McDonald's puts an end to extracurricular activities (which can be just as important as school itself) and puts an end to doing one's homework. No, this is not good.

Fracking comes and goes. It's not particularly stable work. The oil and gas industry is a cyclic industry. But McDonalds and Wal-Mart will go on forever providing minimum wage jobs for those who drop out of middle school and high school.

Fracking is hard work, very, very hard work in very, very miserable locations, in many cases. By comparison, jobs at McDonald's and Wal-Mart are about as "cushy" as one can find. Air conditioned, free food, inside job, no day longer than eight hours, days off every three or four days.

The researchers who contend that fracking led to an increased drop out rate may have stumbled onto something, and the key word there is: stumbled.

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What $15 / Hour Means To A Tenth Grader

Updates

August 16, 2015: this will be a good site to follow over time. One can set the parameters. It will be interesting to see the 10-year trend line for work force participation of 16-year-olds once the minimum wage starts to gain traction. One would except, all things being equal, work force participation would decrease once the minimum wage exceeds the "norm."

Original Post

 

This is how a tenth grader breaks down $15/hour:

• first week of the month: 40 hours x $15 = $600 -- easily pays for a car.
• second week of the month: 40 hours x $15 = $600 -- easily pays for rent (two roommates sharing a $1200-apartment)
• third week of the month: 40 hours x $15 = $600 -- 1/2 pays for food; other 1/2 discretionary
• fourth week of the month: 40 hours x $15 = $600 -- all of it discretionary

No health care expenses: under ObamaCare, children stay on their parents' plan until age 26.
No cell phone expenses: remain on their parents' family plan.
Why stay in school? Living away from home and having $900/month free money.

Yes, I know taxes get taken out; social security gets taken out; Medicare gets taken out; there are other expenses, but none of this is seen by the tenth grader until he gets his first few paychecks and by that time he is out of school.