Monday, September 22, 2014

Slide 8: CLR, Investor And Analyst Day, September, 2014


Slide 5: CLR's Bakken and SCOOP
  • SCOOP: 655K boe; 57% oil; 30% ror
  • Bakken: 603K boe; 85% oil; 45% ror
  • ror based on $90 oil / $4 gas
Slide 8: this is one of several big slides of the presentation (with regard to the Bakken)

Slide 8: recovery factor has increased with density drilling
  • recovery factor of ~ 15%
  • evidence from Hawkinson simulation suggests as high as 20%+
Slide 8: higher recovery rate
  • 62 - 96 billion barrel of oil (note oil, not "boe")
  • enhanced completions: ~ 25% uplift in production
  • potential EUR uplift
Comments: look at that 62 - 96 billion bbls of recoverable oil. Regular readers will remember the graph at this link. 



The "new" CLR estimates puts the Bakken back on par with (or better than) the Permian. Obviously if accurate, the Eagle Ford will also have to be "re-calculated."

Don did the math:
  • 96 billion bbls of recoverable oil / 1 million bbls/day = 96,000 days
  • 96,000 days / 365 days = 263 years but at 2 million bbls/day (Bentek), only 130 years of drilling
Operators all suggest 8 - 20 years of drilling inventory.

Somewhere some data points are missing.

Again, see "welcome/disclaimer" with regard to the "tenor"of the blog (general quality of the blog). I have no formal background or training in oil and gas industry. Do not make any financial/investment decisions based on anything you read at this site or think you may have read at this site.

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The Energizer Bunny

200 years of production from the Bakken? Some may scoff, but just a few years ago the Permian was considered an old, dying field. From wiki: The first production well, Seabird Oil Company of Delaware No. 1-B J.C. Caldwelll in 1948. 1948? That was almost 70 years ago, and now it is obvious the Permian is going to go another 7 decades.

Today, from The San Antonio Business Journal:
The study also found that the Permian Basin, which extends south of Lubbock to just south of Midland and Odessa and westward into New Mexico, had the largest rig count of any region in the world. The region sustains more than 546,000 jobs.
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2 comments:

  1. AnonymousSeptember 22, 2014 at 7:12 PM

    Just to be clear on the 62-90. The 62 is their 50% estimate (base case). 90 is the highside (10% chance). They did not list their downside. I would just base everything off of 62. That's dramatic enough.

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