Saturday, September 20, 2014

Slides 13 - 17, The Lower Three Forks; CLR, Investor And Analyst Day, September, 2014

CLR, Investor and Analyst Day, September, 2014
Middle Bakken, TF1, and Lower TF (TF2, TF3, TF4)
Slides 13 - 17

Slide 13: middle Bakken and TF1
  • 2003: 0 Bakken wells; 0 TF wells
  • 2014: 6,808 Bakken wells; 2,495 TF wells
  • OOIP and type curve EUR models support up to 8 wells per zone
Slide 14: lower Three Forks (LTF) -- TF2, TF3, TF4
  • 73 wells completed in LTF to date; 59% are CLR-operated
  • as of September, 2014: TF2 - 53 wells; TF3 - 18 wells; TF4 - 2 wells
  • Slide 15: 603K boe model for LTF
  • in the sweet spot of the Bakken; along with the middle Bakken
  • all of Williams County, northeast McKenzie, west Mountrail, northwest Dunn
Slide 16: defining the LTF fairways -- graphic
Slide 17: current Bakken Petroleum System
  • inner area: Watford City, Stockyard Creek area: MB, TF1, TF2, TF3; maximum overpressure + structure
  • near inner area: Williams County, sliver of McKenzie; much unexplored northwest Dunn: MB, TF1, TF2; maximum overpressure
  • outer fairway of North Dakota:  all of Divide County, extends into eastern Montana, all of McKenzie, all of Dunn; transitional area
  • eastern Montana fairway: current Montana play; MB or TF1; more normally pressured area


  1. The delineating of areas for different benches is interesting and new.

    We've been hearing a lot about lower benches for a long time, but still only 3% of overall TF wells are LTF. In contrast 30% of Bakken wells are TF1. Are the companies really just "going in order down" or is the LTF pretty crappy compared to TF1?

    1. On the timeline, everything is relative.

      The original Leigh Price paper hypothesizing about the potential of the Bakken was circulating in the 1999/2000 time frame. The Bakken "mini-boom" in Montana began in 2000. The Bakken boom in North Dakota began in 2007. The USGS did not even have enough data on the Three Forks until 2013 to do a survey on the Three Forks. It was that survey that "doubled" the Bakken. Interestingly enough, the "Three Forks" at that time consisted of what we now know as the "upper Three Forks; at the time, there was no mention in the public domain about the lower benches. In early 2012 there was first mention of additional benches, and it was the April, 2014, time frame that folks were clearly learning about the lower benches for the first time, from CLR:

      It was only in 2012-2013 time frame that the operators talked about having completed the delineation of the middle Bakken. They have not really completed the delineation of the upper Three Forks, TF1, and almost nothing is known about the lower benches.

      I think CLR has done an incredible job spelling out as much as they have regarding the boundaries of the lower benches. In some areas, the lower benches will be very good; in other areas the lower benches won't even exist.