Saturday, September 20, 2014

Recovery Rate Of Original Oil In Place Through Primary Production In The Bakken, A Poll -- September 20, 2014

I'm going to do a longer post on this subject in a few days. Hopefully my patience will hold. Before posting the "story," I am curious what readers think.

So here's the poll, based on your knowledge of the Bakken, what do you think is the recovery rate of original oil in place through primary production from the Bakken?
  • 1%
  • 3%
  • 5%
  • 8%
  • 10%
  • 15%
  • 20%


  1. 1. Could you post the outcome of the previous poll?

    2. Have you done a poll of ND or ND Bakken peak value? Results? I would love to see a re-do of this and some discussion in comments. If you want some red meat for a headpost, try these posts. The latter (Rune Red Queen) got huge play in the MSM and was treated as some sort of "expert call", coming from the now-failed The Oil Drum blog. (estimated 150,000-225,000 bpd peak from entire Bakken) (estimated ND only Bakken peak of 600,000 to 700,000) This one was so trumpeted that it was rerun as is in JAN2013 after a SEP2012 run.

    3. On the current poll, for percent extraction: CLR has a new science-based estimate of OIP: 413 billion barrels. They forsee 15%+ extraction. So in the range of 60 billion barrels overall. EOG (more of a pump the brakes company) has talked about 15-20 billion barrels. So, still much in excess of the USGS's most recent estimate of 8 billion.

    1. 1. I always post the results of the polls when I take them down (I don't think I've ever forgotten). One can "find" all the previous polls by going to the bottom of the blog and clicking on the tag: "Poll."

      2. I'm not sure which previous poll you are talking about. The most recent poll, I don't think would interest you -- the poll on whether the Scots would separate from England. I forget the results, but very close to 50/50 -- it can be found by clicking on the tag at the bottom of the blog: "Poll."

      3. With regard to daily peak production from the Bakken and a possible poll, I won't do that one because we wouldn't know the results for at least two years, and possibly longer. As we get closer to the 1.5 million bopd or the 2.0 million bopd I might put up another poll like I did when we approached the 1 million bopd, asking viewers which month we would hit 1 million bopd in the Bakken. By the way, I've quit paying much thought to maximum bopd in the Bakken, because it is subject to local politics, activist environmentalists, geo-politics, etc. I am, however, focused on what the potential production out of the Bakken could be if rough necks and geologists were unfettered.

      4. The recovery rate is going to turn into a big story. I have the posts already written but I won't be posting them for a few days. I want folks to think about recovery rate (there is no correct answer) and then post my thoughts.

      5. Don sent me some calculations based on an observation from the most recent CLR presentation. I think it will blow some folks away. Last night, I actually woke up from a dream about the blog, thinking I had mis-wrote something about the note Don sent me, but I had not erred. I will be posting the observation later this week.

      6. Finally, the news that GE is building a new facility in Williston is a bigger story than most people probably think. The story was not on my radar (thank you to the reader for sending it to me), but this is huge.

      7. Years ago -- maybe twenty years ago -- the oil and gas industry was a pretty sleepy industry for most of us -- but in the last few years it has become incredibly dynamic. It is about the only industry (other than tech, social media, Alibaba, Apple, etc) in the US today with lots of action: mergers, acquisitions, new companies getting into fossil fuel energy. GE made the switch about two years ago, from an emphasis on renewable energy to fossil fuel energy. For GE to come into the Bakken as big as they appear they might -- with that recent story -- suggests they have seen the CLR PowerPoint presentation. Smile.

    2. By the way, at the sidebar at the right, I have a link to a page regarding maximum production from the Bakken:

      I need to update it. Smile. Thank you for writing.

      Your one comment has resulted in 45 minutes of responding to this note, as well as updating several other posts based on your note, etc., etc. So, I've been on the blog for 45 minutes posting this reply and updating older posts, and haven't even posted a new stand-alone post yet.

      Sometimes I amaze myself at how much is archived at this site. And often I am embarrassed how wrong I was on so much stuff when I first started blogging. And still get things wrong. But that's why most everything is linked.