When I post this much, I don't get around to proofreading it for several days. There will be typographical errors and factual errors. Much is personal opinion. Do not make any financial or investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read her. I have no formal training in the oil and gas industry. If something seems wrong, it probably is; that's why I post the links.
I can see it's going to be one of those days. Items for posting are coming in so fast I cannot keep up. I will do the best I can, but it will easily be mid-week before I get caught up. Bear with me.
Let's start with the wells that came off the confidential list over the weekend (by the way, as far as I know, no other site without any advertising and free for anyone, posts results of new wells coming off the confidential list as quickly as this site). For me, it's like opening a Christmas present every day (that's why weekends are so difficult for me). Whiting looks like they have hit a sweet spot in a relatively quiet area. If this is in the grasslands, this is somewhat ironic. Two or three years ago, in one of their corporate presentations, Whiting said they would not ever, never, drill in the grasslands. It simply took too long to get a permit. Maybe these wells aren't in the grasslands, but ...
Anyway, Whiting reports two huge wells; and, Sinclair reports a nice well. Fourteen wells came off the confidential list over the weekend and today, and all of them were Bakken Pool wells; nine (9) of the fourteen (14) went to DRL status. Over the weekend, I updated the FAQ regarding this phenomenon. In addition, a reader sent me a long note over the weekend that adds some more insight to the phenomenon; when I get caught up I will post that note. It's worth the wait.
The two Whiting wells:
- 26654, 2,331, Whiting, Thurlow-Williams 11-18-2H, Lonesome, one of the most detailed geology reports I have ever seen in a file; gas units early on averaged 600 to 1,000; near the end 1,200 and then jumped to 2,500 in the last 1,000 feet; if the frack report was there, I missed it; I assume it was similar to #26760 on the same pad; t3/14; cum 47K 7/14;
- 26760, 2,239, Whiting, Thurlow Williams 11-18H, Lonesome, middle Bakken; 28 stages; 2.5 million lbs sand/ceramic; t3/14; cum 48K 7/14;
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I can't wait to read this Seeking Alpha article: how long will the Bakken last by Richard Zeits. Don answered that question for me a couple of days ago; I have the post ready and will post it later this week. Until then, enjoy Richard Zeit's article:
I think Don's estimate is going to be a lot more fun to read when I finally post it. Hint: Zeits' projection is way off.Summary:Continental Resources unveiled its new recoverable reserves estimate for the Bakken play last week. The company estimates that the Bakken Petroleum System's original oil in place is in the 413 billion barrels (P50 estimate) to 643 billion barrels (P10 estimate) range.
- Continental Resources made a bold prediction that recovery factors in the best areas of the Bakken may ultimately exceed 20%.
- Using a more conservative assumption of ~15% recovery, Continental estimates the Bakken’s recoverable reserves in the 62-96 billion barrels range.
- Even after applying some risking to these estimates, the Bakken should sustain production at 2-3 million barrels per day for multiple decades.
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I wrote this post several days ago regarding slide 8 of CLR's most recent corporate presentation but wanted to hold off until later in the week to post it so readers could study the presentation for themselves. Richard Zeits has already posted his analysis so I thought I better get this posted before everything becomes old news.
While I am at it, I will post the other posts I had completed from the CLR presentation and was waiting to post.
Unfortunately it also means I have to close out the poll on recovery rates. I had hoped to wait a bit longer, but the cat is out of the bag.
The poll asked readers what their perception was regarding the recovery rate of OOIP in the Bakken:
- 1%: 1%
- 3%: 11%
- 5%: 34%
- 8%: 17%
- 10%: 22%
- 15%: 6%
- 20%: 8%
Once again,Mr Oksol, I thank you for your time and effort with this blog. The Internet is on fire as result of Continentals presentation the other day. The peak oil guys are absolutely beside themselves with despair.
ReplyDeleteOn a somewhat related note, I have avidly been following some technical aspects -particularly in regards to eor - these past few months. As positive as Continentals projections are, I am highly confident it is barely the tip of the iceberg yet. The standard secondary recovery -water flooding - will be bypassed with some type of co2 , nitrogen, or natural gas injection. The form may be liquid or emulsion.
Amongst the other ongoing technological innovations, are new resin coated frac sands that are buoyant in solution. This will give operators more and more options in their recovery strategies.
At the end of the day, there are miles and miles of wellbore just a few hundred feet apart throughout much of the Bakken. This will absolutely provide a tremendous environment for tertiary EOR operations.
Wow, wow, and wow. About three years ago one of my readers who has no formal training in the oil and gas industry either, but who is very, very interested in tertiary EOR, said -- and this was three years ago -- the oil companies will place so many holes in the ground (and all those laterals) that it will make, exactly what you said, a tremendous environment for tertiary EOR operations.
DeleteAnd to think how much work is yet to be done before we see tertiary EOR across the basin.
Thank you for taking the time to write, and especially the kind words.
Yes, the CLR presentation was another eye-opener. There is enough material in there for two to three weeks of blogging. I had hoped to spread my individual posts about CLR's presentation over several days but Richard Zeits did it all in one long essay (which I expected he might -- but I was still surprised).
Having said that, my hunch is most folks need to hear some of what CLR had to say several times before they "get it" and perhaps from several different venues.
You may have noted that CLR brought their OOIP back from 903 billion bbls to 500 billion bbls (more in line with the original Leigh Price paper). I have some thoughts on that also.
I think the issue with water flood and EOR was that the formation was really different than a normal trap. But with a lot of interconnected fracks and even layers of wells, it may become more and more something where you could do EOR (even water flood). [Totally speculating...I am an Internet git, not a petroleum engineer. But just a thought.]
ReplyDeleteWater flooding unconventional shale is way beyond my comfort zone. I do recall that water flooding in shale can lead to gumming up things, and it may not work out all that well. I think there has been a report or two of an operator trying water flooding in the Bakken but I never read how it worked out. Tertiary CO2 EOR seems to be what most operators are talking about the most, but again this is way beyond my knowledge base.
DeleteAs far as Whiting hitting a sweet spot. I would say it is more like Whiting showing their superior expertise from site location to frac and everything in between and after. Me thinks they got some top geologist mudloggers drillers who know exactly where to send that bit through the rock. Whiting only surprises me when they dont perform, newbee crew I suppose. Would be very interested to know the actual hands involved. Sometimes its superstars making a crew or company. But then again even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while.
ReplyDeleteYou have no idea how much I agree with you. Thank you for taking time to write. I often find myself taking the middle ground/sitting on the fence in responding to some of the comments. I have no idea the background of some of the folks commenting; I have no background in the oil and gas industry and have to be careful that I don't get ahead of my headlights (as they say) when talking about the Bakken.
DeleteYour comments reminded me of the individual who said that the Hawkinson pad (CLR) was not representative of the CLR's acreage. That may be true, but I think the individual was missing the point. CLR was attempting to find out how additional wells would affect overall production.
I agree with you completely. I have to chuckle. We talk about sweet spots in the Bakken, but like you say, part of the skill of a successful company is to find a sweet spot in the first place.
But even if they find a sweet spot, one still has to have the expertise to complete the well and get a good well out of it.
I could write volumes on this, but that's not the purpose of comment section, so I will let it go for now, but I agree with you 100%. I appreciate very much you taking time to write. I may write more about this in a stand-alone post. Thank you.