Director's Cut For June, 2014, Production; Deere Announces Layoffs -- August 15, 2014

This is what caught my eye going through the Director's Cut (down below) with June, 2014, data:

• 1,092,617 bopd (preliminary; new all-time high) (third consecutive month of 1MM bopd)
• 5% increase month-over-month is staggering when you think about it
• doing more with less; rig count remains well below all-time high
• weather is perfect; additional frack teams coming on board -- so why does number of wells waiting completion remain so high (600 a month ago; still 585 waiting completion -- NDIC says there was a decrease of about 25, and yet, the delta may be even less)? Two answers -- operational calendar/scheduled due to pad drilling; and, significant shortage of sand
• the number of active rigs on federal grassland up four times (4x); from 1 to 4
• flaring is still a problem despite all the new processing capacity; 28% is better but it's still ... 28% 

And, of those six data points, the most incredible data point? Five percent (5%) increase month-over-month. Scroll through this history and one will note how rare it is for a 5% month-over-month increase in production. 

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Track "Director's Cuts" here.

The August Director's Cut is out -- June, 2014 data.

Bakken oil hype. 

The Data

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical errors are likely. This is for my use only. Others should go to the source. 

Oil:

• June, 2014: 1,092,616 bopd (preliminary; new all-time high)
• May, 2014: 1,040,469 bopd (revised; second consecutive month to go over 1 million bopd) 
• May, 2014: 1,039,635 bopd (original)
  
• delta: 52,147
• 52,147 / 1,040,469 = 5.0% (very significant)

Producing wells: 

• June, 2014: 11,079 (new all-time high) 
• May, 2014: 10,902

Permitting:

• July, 2014: 265
• June, 2014: 247
• May, 2014: 234
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing:

• Today, 2014: $79.50
• July, 2014: $86.20
• June, 2014: $90.03
• May, 2014: $88.31
• April, 2014: $85.68
• March, 2014: $86.72
• February, 2014: $86.89 

Rig count:

• Today: 194 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
• July, 2014:  192
• June, 2014: 190
• May, 2014: 189
• April, 2014: 188
• March, 2014: 193
  

Director's comments:

• number of wells waiting completion: 585 (a decrease of about 25)
• US natural gas storage:  19% below five-year average
• percentage of natural gas flared in North Dakota:  28% (Tioga plant below full capacity due to delayed expansion of gas gathering from Lake Sakakawea)
• number of rigs actively drilling on federal grassland: up to 4 (generally it's been 1 rig)
• future gas prices could make shall gas exploration economically feasible; first exploration well is underway in Emmons County; will be on confidential list until 12/23/14

Fracking regulations:

Draft BLM regulations for hydraulic fracturing on federal lands were published last year. BLM received over 177,000 comments and withdrew the rule. A new proposed rule was published in the federal register on 5/24/2013 and the comment period ended 8/23/2013. This time BLM received over 1.2 million comments. Thanks to all who provided comments in support of a “states first” policy. Department of Interior has announced a goal of issuing a final rule by year end of 2014. In addition they have started the process of new venting and flaring regulations and held input sessions in Denver, Albuquerque, Dickinson, and Washington, DC.

EPA input:

EPA has published an advanced notice of proposed rule-making to seek comment on the information that should be reported or disclosed for hydraulic fracturing chemical substances and mixtures and the mechanism for obtaining this information. The proposed rule-making is in response to a petition from Earthjustice and 114 other groups who are opposed to the use of the GWPC-IOGCC FracFocus website process of chemical disclosure and any type of trade secret protection for hydraulic fracturing fluid mixtures. These groups are requesting EPA regulation of chemical disclosure under the federal Toxic Substances Control Act. Comments are due by 5pm EDT 8/18/14.

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Non-Bakken Economy

Deere announces factory layoffs :

• Co announced it will reduce the size of its manufacturing workforce at some agricultural equipment factories in response to current market demand for its products. The action will place more than 600 employees at four locations on indefinite layoff. 
• In addition, Deere is implementing seasonal and inventory adjustment shutdowns and temporary layoffs at several of the affected factories. When Deere announced third quarter earnings on Wednesday, the company said it planned to reduce agricultural equipment production in the company's fourth quarter.

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Both the quilt and the baby are brand new (and the same age).

Quilt by Kathy.