Thursday, October 25, 2012

Jobless Claims: Huge Swings -- One Has To Wonder

Remember: the magic number is 400,000

We generally see swings of 2,000 or so, up or down, so when the number decreases by 23,000, it should catch your attention. And yet Bloomberg practically ignores it. I suppose this is why:
The four-week moving average of jobless claims, a less- volatile measure than the weekly figures, rose to 368,000 last week from 366,500. At the end of September, before the start of the quarter, the average was 375,500. 
But, it is what it is. First time jobless claims dropped 23,000:
Jobless claims decreased by 23,000 to 369,000 in the week ended Oct. 20 from a revised 392,000 the prior period, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of 48 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a drop in claims to 370,000. 
It was a bit lower down, but here's the most interesting data point of the article: the "revised 392,000." So what was it last week? It was 388,000; so it was revised upward. This is what is interesting about this: 392,000 is squeakingly close to 400,000, the magic number

Companies are hiring for the holiday surge in sales? Yes, I will eventually get to the Apple story. Microsoft has an announcement today, I believe, also. 

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