Counting Confidential Wells and Other Trivial Statistics

In August, 2010, there were 913 wells on the confidential list.

Tonight, September 3, 2010, there are 961 wells on the confidential list.

It is my understanding that the wells in North Dakota come off the confidential list six months after the well is completed.

EOG does not frack between November and March. The end of September is the sixth month following the end of March. There has been a backlog in fracturing; I do not know how severe that choke point remains. For all I know it's been resolved, but I doubt it.

Due to recent concerns about "confidentiality" and other regulatory issues, a spokesman for the state of  Wyoming says Wyoming will be watching the confidential list and the dates more carefully. I haven't heard any problems with the confidential list coming before the commission in North Dakota.

Seventy-six (76) wells are scheduled to come off the confidential list in September, 2010.

Extrapolating the 930 permits granted so far this year, and the fact that no more permits will be granted until Tuesday, September 7, 2010, the state is on track to granting 1,363 permits this year (2010). Of the 930 permits granted so far this year, my database shows that 117 wells have come off the confidential list (obviously many, many more have been completed but are still on the confidential list).

Last year (2009), the state granted 628 permits (according to my database); of those 628 permits, 440 wells came off the confidential list (70%).

In 2008, 953 permits were granted; of those 953 permits, 693 wells came off the confidential list (73%).

In 2007, 497 permits were granted; of those 497 permits, 356 wells came off the confidential list (72%). The average IP (in my database) for those 356 wells that reported was 438 bopd. 

In 2006, 422 permits were granted; of those 422 permits, 194 wells came off the confidential list (46%).

Today, a new record was set in North Dakota for the number of active rigs: 146. This is up from 143 just a couple of days ago, and up from 95 at the beginning of the year (2010).

It appears we are going to average about 90 wells a month coming off the confidential list for the rest of the year. Four (4) months times 90 = 360 wells yet to come off the confidential list, adding that to the current 117 gives 477. That represents 51% of 930 and 35% of 1,363. New wells spudded from here on out will not come off the confidential list before the end of the year (actually, since July/August time period, newly spudded wells will not come off confidential list this year).

Note: these numbers are from my database and are in close, but not perfect, agreement with the state's statistics.


Runaway, Del Shannon

This has nothing to do with the Bakken, but I felt like posting it.


Runaway, from Crime Story, Del Shannon