Saturday, April 19, 2025

Moving Day -- April 19, 2025

Locator: 44843MOVING.

The Atlantic, March, 2025: "Stuck in Place, Yoni Appelbaum: Why Americans Stopped Moving Houses -- And Why That's A Very Big Problem," p. 32. Link here.

Fascinating.

No society has ever been as mobile as the United States once was. No society has even come close. In the 19th century, the heyday of American mobility roughly a third of all Americans changed addresses each year. European visitors were astonished, and more than slightly appalled. The American "is devoured with a passion for locomotion," the French writer Michel Chevalier observed in 835; "he cannot stay in one place." Americans moved far more often, over longer distances, and to great advantage than did people in the lands from which they had come.They understood this as the key to their national character, the thing that made their country distinctive.

But no more. And that's the "thing" Yoni Appelbaum will dissect in this article. 

To some extent, those in the military still have that opportunity to move; not as much as they did during the Cold War, but at least more than non-military Americans move these days.

My wife and two daughters moved every couple of years while in the US Air Force. Near the end, we stayed put for many, many years, preparing for retirement, but for the first twenty years we moved every three or four years. In one short four-year period overseas we moved three times (at least). 

By the last few moves, we literally handed the moving company the keys to our home and left to live elsewhere during the move. 

During our last ten years in the USAF my wife and I planned to keep moving in retirement. We had planned to live in every big city in the US for two or three years, in a efficiency apartment, so as not to be distracted and to really learn to enjoy all America had to offer.

Then we had grandchildren and taking care of grandchildren became our primary focus. And so our dream of moving every couple of years dissipated. We still traveled a lot. We had a family home in Los Angeles, and our children / grandchildren lived in various places across the country. Our older daughter was married to a navy submarine officer and we followed them from the west coast to the south coast.

As we start to see the end of taking care of our grandchildren I'm starting to wonder if we might dream again of moving every two or three years to live in efficiency apartments to enjoy northern California, Chicago, Florida --- as I write that I realize we have lived almost everywhere in the states and I really have no desire to see any of those cities for two or three years. 

I love where I am.

It will be interesting to see why Americans don't move any more -- what Yoni Appelbuam discovered. 

On another note, "moving day" is absolutely fascinating. I never knew. The great holiday of America society at its most nomadic was Moving Day, observed by renters and landlords throuthout the 19th century and well into the 20th with a giant game of musical houses. Moving Day was a festival of new hopes and new beginnings, of shattered dreams and shattered crockery -- "quite as recognized a day as Christmas or the Fourth of July," as a Chicago newspaper put it in 1882. It was primarily an urban holiday, although may rural communities where leased farms predominated held their own observances. The dates differed from state to state and city to city -- April 1 in Pittsburgh, October 1 in Nashville and New Orleans -- but May was the most popular. And nothing quite so astonished visitors from abroad as the spectacle of thousands upon thousands of people picking up and swapping homes in a singe day.

At one time, if a lease did not specify a termination date, it was legally assumed to be May 1. 

In the first fourteen years of my life, my dad and mom moved not less than four times.

The top two reasons why my wife and I don't move any more:

  • possessions; and,
  • medical care.

Has "Intel Inside" Been Replaced By "Snapdragon X Elite"?

Locator: 44842TOPS.

POPS, TOPS, and FLOPS. 

But first, a musical interlude. Link here. A huge thanks to whomever put this together -- 3-and-a-half hours of whiskey blues and video to accompany same.

I can hardly wait for summer. This will be awesome on the balcony or poolside until late into the evening. I don't drink whiskey / Scotch any more, but I may have to reconsider for the summer. LOL. 

Tonight, I'll be reading Two Lives: Gertrude and Alice, by Janet Malcolm, c. 2007. Notes elsewhere.

Has "Intel Inside" been replaced by "Snapdragon X Elite." Asking for a friend.

Link here

Snapdragon? Qualcomm.

NPU processing speed: 45 trillion operations per second (TOPS). 

I can't even comprehend that.

Apple's M4? Link here. Only 38 trillion operations per second (TOPS).

TSMC -- Phoenix -- $165 Billion With A "B" -- April 19, 2025

Locator: 44841TSMC.

Think about this: one company; one investment; largest foreign direct investment in one average size US metropolis. And a metropolis known for its retirees, not for its entrepreneurship. I don't recall ever having flown through the Phoenix airport, much less visiting. 

$165 billion: largest in the state's history and the largest foreign direct investment in the US

Biden-Trump, the one-two punch:

  • Biden's IRA and CHIPS acts
  • Trump's tariffs -- MAGA initiative

Amazing how things work out.

Thank you to a reader for alerting me to this story. I find this story simply incredible.


 

Link here.

Phoenix Economic Development Director Christine Mackay opens up on how the city worked for a decade to lure semiconductor giant TSMC to the Valley.

 

More, link here:


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Microsoft At 50

I didn't like the format or the clickbait or the superficial analysis, but it's worth reading and will take less than 120 seconds. Link here. The author says "seven" game-changes; I vaguely recall three.

My Favorite Chart -- MMFs -- April 19, 2025

Locator: 44840MMF.

My favorite chart. MMFs. Money market funds.

Huge change -- both dollar amount and direction.

Link here.

Mom-and-pop retail investors getting back in the game. First quarter is in the books -- are movers and shakers making a move to start the second quarter?

Have assets under management (MMFs) peaked?

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Netflix Record

Evan.

Link here.

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AI Is An Energy Story

Beth is reading the blog.

Link here.

Rambling -- US Economy, Space Command -- April 19, 2025

Locator: 44839SPACE.

Wow, I'm in a great mood.

Briefly.

Soccer game this morning. Sophia played an outstanding game. We won, 2 - 0.

Black Sheep: new coffee shop six minutes by bike from our humble abode. 

Standing room only. As I noted yesterday, much, much better than Starbucks. In fact, it's the "old Starbucks" business model but much, much better. We'll see how it looks in a year, but I'm ready to start blogging on a regular basis at this coffee shop. Really, really well-designed. Great atmosphere. 

American economy: the worst thing I can do is get distracted by headlines over at Fox News and The New York Times

The American economy is most fascinating to watch. Had Trump started his plan to bring back manufacturing to the US in his fourth year, "everyone" would have simply waited him out. Had he started in his penultimate year (the third of his four years), most companies would have struggled whether to choose to wait him out -- it would have been a risky gamble. If he had started in his second year, next year, most companies would not have been able to wait him out.
But in his first hundred days, with almost the full first year yet to go, companies can't afford to try to wait him out.

Deep pockets: I can't get my head around trillion-dollar companies expanding in the US. Nvidia's supercomputer projects in Houston and Dallas alone are game changers. And that's just a start.

US military: I don't think folks realize how wide the gap is between:

  • the US military and the Chinese military
  • the US military of 2005 and the US military of 2025

AI: is an energy story.

But it's also an American "blade" story. Quick! Name a "chip" company in Europe. Yes, there is one, and it's huge.

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US Space Program
Hard To Keep Up
But, Being The Best Bakken Blog On The Net, We'll Try

Never more robust:

  • NASA: Florida, Texas (Houston).
  • NASA Ames: Moffett Federal Airfield; northern California. 
  • Planetary Ventures: Moffett Federal Airfield; subsidiary of Google, Inc. Link here.
  • Space Command (DOD): Alabama (coming); Vandenberg (California). [As of April 16, 2025, still no decision. Decision will likely be determined by last individual to visit Trump on this issue. So far, not scheduled. Unbiased view suggests Space Command will stay in Colorado but animosity between Biden / Trump so great that it's very possibly Trump will reverse Biden's decision to keep Space Command HQ in Denver. It's all political no matter what anyone says.]
  • Space X (Musk): Texas
  • Blue Origin (Bezos/Amazon): Texas

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Which Leads Us To This

ICBMs:

  • initially part of the Air Force Space Command, but ...
  • in 2010, the ICBM mission and the 20th Air Force (which operates ICBMs) were transferred to the new Air Force Global Strike Command
  • AFGSC: solely dedicated to the nuclear deterrence mission
  • US Space Force: provides the capabilities for US Space Command
  • twenty years from now, Elon Musk's fourteen children will run US Space Command

20th Air Force:

Twentieth Air Force headquarters is unique in that it has dual responsibilities to Air Force Global Strike Command and United States Strategic Command.
As the missile Numbered Air Force for AFGSC, 20th Air Force is responsible for maintaining and operating the Air Force's ICBM force. Designated as STRATCOM's Task Force 214, 20th Air Force provides on-alert, combat ready ICBMs to the president. Combined with the other two legs of the Triad, bombers and submarines, STRATCOM forces protect the United States with an umbrella of deterrence.

Chain of command:

  • AFGSC (was SAC; Barksdale AFB, LA)
    • 20th Air Force: F.E. Warren AFB, MT -- ICBMs
      • 91st Missile Wing (Minot AFB, ND)
      • 90th Missile Wing (F. E. Warren AFB, WY)
      • 341st Missile Wing (Malmstrom AFB, MT)
    • 8th Air Force: Barksdale AFB, LA -- heavy bomber force
      • B-52
      • B-1 Lancer
      • B-2 Spirit
  • USSTRATCOM (Offutt AFB, NE): two components
    • Joint Force Air Component Command (Barksdale AFB, LA)
      • 20th Air Force: Task Force 214
        • ICBMs (Wyoming, Montana, ND)
        • UH-1N Huey helicopters --> Boeing MH-139 Grey Wolf
          • Grey Wolf: at $2.4 billion, 2018, this was the largest acquisition for 20 AFGSC in its ten-year history;  
          • numerous setbacks and delays (Boeing again); unknown exactly how many of these helicopters have been delivered (Malmstrom AFB and Maxwell AFB)
    • Joint Force Naval Component Command (Naval Station Norfolk, VA)
      • 2nd Fleet --> Expeditionary Strike Group 2 --> Carrier Strike Group 4

The nuclear triad

  • land-based ICBMs; LGM-30 Minuteman --> LGM-35 Sentinel (2030)
  • submarine SLBMs: UGM-27 Polaris --> evolving
  • air-launched cruise missiles: ALCMs

On the drawing board:

  • US Solar System Command (USSSC)
    • xLunarAF: Musk 1
    • xMarsAF: Musk II
    • xSpace Recruiting Command: Bezos 1

The tech dynasties are starting to look like the Egyptian Pharaoh dynasties.  

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The Sports Page

Has Scottie Scheffler peaked?