Locator: 48547WHITTEN.
Vern Whitten would love to hear from you. Vern has sent a wonderful collection of "farm" photos from North Dakota. Something we can think about during the middle of winter!
www.vernwhittenhotography.com.
Vern Whitten
1518 7th Street South
Fargo, ND 58103
Locator: 48546CHIPS.
There is so much packed in these two (which I divided into three) paragraphs:
On the surface, it might seem logical that a large tariff would incentivize domestic production of advanced chips.
But the reality is that there’s no way to divert production domestically over the next few years given a lack of capacity. Advanced chip factories can’t be created out of thin air. It takes roughly four years to build a new fab at the cost of $10 billion to $20 billion.
Money and time aren’t the only factors, though. Technical expertise is also needed. Only Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC), has proven it can make chips that meet the requirements of top chip designers like Nvidia and Apple (AAPL).
Tell that to Jeff Bezos, AWS.
Tell that to whomever is running Intel (INTC). now.
Once tariffs on chips are imposed, there are going to be winners and losers.
[An aside: is there any difference between Biden choosing winners among EVs and non-EV carmakers; and, between Trump affecting winners and losers among chip manufacturers?]
Which brings us to Amazon and Rivian.
At one time it looked like a no-brainer for Amazon, which had an exclusive arrangement with Rivian, to buy Rivian outright.
That exclusivity arrangement ended in 2023 (?) and Rivian is now hoping to sells its products to all comers.
Some still suggest that Amazon might / should acquire Rivian.
Comments and observations:
If acquiring Rivian does move the needle, the needle will move in the wrong direction for Amazon if Jeff Bezos buys Rivian.
What would Amazon gain from buying Rivian? Headaches.
The most recent App Economy AMZN graphic suggests that Amazon competes with:
Tesla, Rivian, Lucid do not show up on that list.
Drilling in on Amazon, Amazon's revenues, most recent quarter (some numbers rounded up):
AWS is growing 20% year-on-year. Retail? About 7%. Last-mile delivery is not Amazon's Achille's heel. Amazon delivery is doing just fine with its current business model and is way ahead of whomever is in second place.
Buried in AWS: Amazon is making its own custom chips at its Annapurna Labs, an Israeli microelectronics company, a wholly owned subsidiary of Amazon, reportedly acquired by AWS for less than $500 million.
That line about taking four years and billions of dollars to build a fab factory:
Amazon logistics:
And then there's the owner. A lot of folks / investors just don't see Jeff Bezos interested in owning a trucking company, even if it's Rivian.
Bezos seems much more interested in AI and space. In fact, it's now becoming obvious that the fourth industrial revolution (which I call the sixth industrial revolution) is becoming more and more a "marriage" of "terrestrial AI" and "space AI." From a recent post update:
AI: catch-all for sixth industrial revolution.
I don't see "trucking" in that mix.
And Trump's tariffs on chips? This will be a huge win for a handful of companies.
Bottom line:
Locator: 48545B.
If his adversaries can't laugh at this, they have no sense of humor.
So, let's see, if his adversaries try to find some judge / court to stop this appointment. LOL. A felon has now been elected chairperson of the Kennedy Honors.
This is what the weaponization of politics leads to. A felon in charge.
Trump replaces billionaire philanthropist David Rubenstein as chair of
the Kennedy Center, one of the leading arts organizations in the country
that has enjoyed bipartisan support for years. It will be interesting to see if there are empty seats at the Honors' next event.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $71.37.
Active rigs: 35.
Four new permits, #41607 - #41610, inclusive:
Two permits renewed:
Locator: 48544TARIFFS.
Gabbard confirmation! Wow, that was fast. Reported at 12:18
p.m. CT, February 12, 2025. Yesterday, it was reported the vote would be
held this evening. The RFK, Jr., nomination moves forward. Only Mitch
McConnell broke ranks with the GOP. JD Vance not even in town to
provide the tie-breaking vote if needed. That's how sure John Thune was
about the vote.
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Of Interest
Timeline of the Far Future: wiki.
Locator: 48543ARCHIVES.
Breaking: will Trump "out-Reagan" Reagan?
Calling all DC attorneys, link here.
Memories: my primary a/c, 1986 - 1989. Libya: April 15 (tax day), 1986. Quite an introduction for me.
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Arrived Today
