Tuesday, January 21, 2025

No State Of The Union Address In "Years Of Inauguration” -- Instead "A Speech / Address To A Joint Session Of Congress” -- January 21, 2025

Locator: 44738FUNDY.

Maybe someone can help me out here: the date of this year's "Presidential Address To A Joint Session Of Congress"? The last one was April 28, 2021, given by President Joe "The Pardoner" Biden. Wow, I miss Rush. 

I think I saw somewhere the address would be in March. That would make sense. 

I bet President Trump will attend the Super Bowl if nothing else is on his calendar. Like a meeting with Xi, Putin, or (the) Rocket Man. I wonder if anyone misses ... I forget this name -- the governor of the 51st state north of the (old) border. Oh, that's right Justin Trudeau.

By the way, speaking of "Joe The Pardoner," who Joe did NOT pardon is even more interesting that who he did pardon. Think about it.

Something tells me the history of low ratings for presidential speeches will be just that ... history. With Trump, I imagine historic ratings. But we'll see. Link here for a few data points.

Folks will want to see how the purchase of Greenland is going (SecState Rubio's #1 mission) and how the military takeover of the Panama Canal is going. And that's just for starters. Americans will also want to know if vaccines will still be available for those who want them. It's going to be an interesting four years.

Speaking of vaccines, those folks discharged from the military for refusing to take the Covid-19 shot have the option of rejoining the military, but regardless, apparently, will get almost five years of back pay. Is that going to be around a quarter of a million dollars per GI?

The below from the blog, January 23, 2015.

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Tired Of Fiction?

Politico is reporting record-low ratings for any SOTU address:
Nearly 32 million Americans watched President Barack Obama's 2015 State of the Union address on television, the lowest turnout since President Bill Clinton's final State of the Union address in 2000, according to newly released Nielsen ratings.
Obama attracted 31.7 million viewers. Viewership for Obama's State of the Union addresses has been in decline since 2009, when he drew 52.4 million television viewers. Subsequently, 48.0 million watched on television in 2010, 42.8 million in 2011, 37.8 million in 2012, 33.5 million in 2013 and 33.3 million in 2014. This year's speech replaces last year's as the second-lowest rated since Nielsen began recording viewership in 1993.

I love the last line: this year's low rating replaces last year's as the second-lowest rated since 1993 (also Bill Clinton's).  

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Bay Of Fundy

For such an obscure geographical location, the Bay of Fundy has certainly been mentioned a lot on the blog. Do a word ("Fundy") search and you will see what I mean.

I was reminded of that tonight while reading A Plausible Man: The True Story of the Escaped Slave Who Inspired Uncle Tom's Cabin, Susanna Ashton, c. 2024. 

Page 137: 

The province of New Brunswick is a little smaller than the state of Maine and is marked dramatically by two Atlantic-facing coasts: one looks north toward the Gulf of Saint Lawrence, and the other looks across some of the world's most powerful tides in the enormous Bay of Fundy that separates new Brunswick from the inner coast of the peninsula of Nova Scotia (which then and now was dominated by the Atlantic-facing city of Halifax).
Although Nova Scotia and New Brunswick have been separate provinces sine the mid-eighteenth century, they are known (along with Prince Edward island) more loosely as "The Maritimes."
Why "the Maritimes"?

The Maritimes means “realting to or bordering the sea". It was shorter than saying “Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and PEI." More here.

NY-ISO And ISO-NE -- Day Ahead -- $320 / MWh -- January 21, 2025

Locator: 44737NYISO.

Link here

Seven New Permits; Devon Getting Active Again; Four DUCs Reported As Completed -- January 21, 2025

Locator: 44736B.

Big Oil:

  • Chevron + Hess
  • XOM + PXD

Trump trade: Trump pushes for early renegotiation of North American (Canada, Mexico) trade deals with emphasis on moving automobile manufacturing back to the states. Leverage? Tariffs. 

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $75.89.

Active rigs: 31.

Seven new permits, #4150 - #41536, inclusive:

  • Operators: Devon (6); CLR
  • Fields: Todd (Williston, Williams); Banks (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has a permit for a Garfield Federal well, SESE 5-152-99, 
      • to be sited 280 FSL and 16 FEL (that's about as close to the section line as I've seen)
    • Devon Energy (Grayson Mill) has permits for six wells, SWSE 33-155-101: Orville, Charles, Borsheim (3), and Cherrey (sic); 
      • to be sited 477 FSL and 2116 / 2236 FEL.

One permit renewed:

  • 30568, Formentera Operations, LLC, Marauder 1324-5H, Blooming Prairie, Divide County.

Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 40747, 3,005, MRO, Sigrid 41-27H, Dunn County;
  • 40776, 789, Koda Resources, Stout 2203-3BH, Divide County;
  • 40777, 694, Koda Resources, Stout 2203-2BH, Divide County;
  • 40778, 832, Koda Resources, Stout 2203-1BH, Divide County;

Netflix -- 4Q24 -- Earnings -- Ticker Surges -- Welcome To The US Economy, Mr Trump -- January 21, 2025

Locator: 44735NETFLIX.

Netflix market cap growth over the years: link here

Netflix: the next big thing -- the tag more than a decade old. Started noting Netflix as the next big thing with the first post, March 21, 2013.

Strong quarter, link here:

Netflix earnings, 4Q24:

  • raises subscriber prices
  • reports record subscriber growth



Earnings, link here: margins of 18%.

US Bonds? Worst Decade In 90 Years -- January 21, 2025

Locator: 44734USBONDS.

Even when professionals can't succeed ....  worst decade in 90 years ...

From Barron's.

Link here.

From the linked article, the lead:

Treasury bonds are having one of their worst performances in nearly a century.

That could mean a big buying opportunity for investors willing to bet that interest rates will decline. But it is bad news for anyone merely looking for a safe and steady way to diversify their investment portfolio.

Investors have long relied on Treasuries to deliver consistent returns, offsetting more volatile stocks. Lately, those bonds have failed to do this basic job: Over the past 10 years, long-term Treasuries have posted a negative return. It was the first time they have done so in 90 years, according to research published last week by Bank of America Securities.