Tuesday, December 17, 2024

Rambling On A Tuesday Night -- National Emergencies -- Never Quit Reading -- December 17, 2024

Locator: 44479CONSTITUTION.

I don't follow politics as closely as some, but I'm getting a kick out of the current political situation.

Imagine if you are the incoming president and you know you have only four years to get things done.

You know how a president's initiatives can be thwarted and delayed through any number of means.

Already some political leaders are taking steps to "Trump-proof" their cities and states. California's governor Newsom may be the poster child for such efforts.

It may be a good time to learn a bit more about the National Emergencies Act (link to wiki here) enacted on September 14, 1976. 

Just for starters, some might argue that a national debt of $36 trillion is a national emergency.

Some might argue that with the rise of large data centers, the national electricity grid has become a national emergency.

Infrastructure? Highways? A national emergency? Perhaps. 

Shipping? The Jones Act? A national emergency? Perhaps.

Oil pipelines? Alaska? Keystone XL? National emergencies? Perhaps.

And that's just a start. 

From wiki:

Powers available under this Act are limited to the 136 emergency powers Congress has defined by law.

Seems more than enough to get the ball -- or balls -- rolling.

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The Book Page

From a book review of the book, The Claremont Review of Books, Fall 2024, p. 59. On line here. "The Great Miscalculation," Christopher Flannery.

What a great introduction:

In A Hell of a Storm: The Battle for Kansas, the End of Compromise, and the Coming of the Civil War, David S. Brown identifies 1854 as the moment when “Jefferson’s southern-oriented, plantation-based, and Democratic Party-powered America” began to give way to what would become “Lincoln’s northern-oriented, factory-based, and Republican Party-powered America.”

This great transformation had “everything to do” with the Kansas-Nebraska Act, introduced on January 4, 1854, by Illinois Democratic senator Stephen A. Douglas and—after months of contention in the Senate and House, and in the public prints and public squares—signed into law by Democratic President Franklin Pierce on May 30, 1854. Brown calls it “the most lethal piece of legislation to ever clear Congress.” He follows a long line of historians in holding that the act put the nation “irreparably on the road to Civil War.” Its key explosive ingredient was the repeal of the Missouri Compromise of 1820’s prohibition of slavery in the Louisiana Territory north of 36° 30’. As Harry V. Jaffa wrote in Crisis of the House Divided (1959), that repeal, coupled with Lincoln’s opposition to it, was an “absolute sine qua non of the advent of the Civil War.”

“Bleeding Kansas”—the localized civil war between pro- and anti-slavery settlers in the Kansas territory between 1854 and the start of full-blown Civil War—was a direct result of this catastrophic legislation. Other results came on fast and hard: John Brown’s Pottawatomie massacre (part of Bleeding Kansas) and his later raid at Harpers Ferry; the collapse of the party system, the disappearance of the Whig Party, and the rise of the Republican Party; the infamous Dred Scott decision; and the breakdown of the “once sacred system” of historic compromises that had held the Union together for 80 years. All “owed something small or large” to the “decisions made on slavery and territorial development during the fateful Kansas-Nebraska debates,” writes Brown.

Most fatefully—I say this with slightly more emphasis than Brown does—the repeal of the Missouri Compromise “aroused” Abraham Lincoln and brought him back into politics. The Peoria speech Lincoln delivered in October 1854, in direct response to Douglas’s legislation, was of a sort he had never delivered before. As Jaffa wrote in these pages, “it marked the first and fullest elaboration of the political, rhetorical, and philosophical strategy that he would pursue to the end of the decade and, indeed, to the end of his life” (“Lincoln in Peoria,” Fall 2009).

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A Musical Interlude

Wow, I simply "love" this singer. 

From google:

Although it was the "original" that haunted me for years, I would rather listen to Lana Del Rey's cover.

I had probably just experienced the most intense three months of my life up to that point in my life, and even at age 73, that summer may still be the most intense, most complicated three months of my life. I was on my way home, late August, via West Virginia, late summer, 1971. John Denver's Take Me Home Country Roads was the hit song that summer, released in the spring of 1971. I was torn between staying on the east coast and returning home to the Dakotas. I really had no choice, but it was incredibly difficult. To this day, I wonder how it would have been had I taken the other fork in that road.

Link here.

Whiting With Five New Permits

Locator: 44478B.

Grid: link here. With Doug Burgum involved, this is a no-brainer for North Dakota.

The U.S. Department of Energy has zeroed in on three regions of the country it has determined are in major need of new electric transmission infrastructure and eligible for future federal funding, it announced on Monday.

The DOE selected Lake Erie-Canada, including parts of Lake Erie and Pennsylvania; the Southwestern Grid Connector, including parts of Colorado, New Mexico, and a small portion of western Oklahoma; and the Tribal Energy Access Corridor, including central parts of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and five Tribal Reservations, as National Interest Electric Transmission Corridors.
The DOE has narrowed down an initial list of national interest corridors to three from 10. The designation would allow the federal government to expedite the development of grid expansion projects. It is meant to help areas that grapple with high electricity bills and power disruptions attract more investment in transmission capacity.
The comment period for the three corridors would extend to February 2025, after President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Trump has said he may declare a national energy emergency to expedite the construction of new electric capacity and domestic energy.


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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $70.08.

Active rigs: 37.

Six new permits, #41431 - #41436, inclusive:

  • Operator: Whiting (5); Neptune Operating
  • Fields: Foreman Butte (McKenzie); Arnegard (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Neptune Operating has a permit for a Gullickson well, SESE 36-150-101, 
      • to be sited 313 FSL and 1170 FEL;
    • Whiting has permits for five Jefferson Federal wells, SWSW 14-150-103; 
      • to be sited between 968 FSL and 974 FSL and between 1161 FWL and 1292 FWL.

Two permits renewed:

  • 39520, BR, State Dodge 3C, Dimmick Lake, McKenzie County;
  • 39521, BR, State Dodge 3D, Dimmick Lake, McKenzie County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

  • 34558, 180, XTO, Rough Federal 44X-23DXA, McKenzie County.
  • 40609, 2,617, MRO, Selmer 21-14H, Dunn County. Bailey oil field;

So, What's The Story With AVGO? December 17, 2024

Locator: 44477AVGO.

Tag: AVGO Broadcom

Link here



Ticker:

Apple: Updating -- December 17, 2024

Locator: 44476AAPL.

All US equity markets will finish in the red today. Not AAPL.

Not only green, but sits atop the market. Will finish up almost 1%; up almost $2.43. 

Market cap at $3.83 trillion.

Later:

Today:

That p/e is concerning but the forward p/e is much more reassuring:

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The Benchmark 


 

Updating An Old Slawson Submariner Federal Well -- December 17, 2024

Locator: 44475SUBMARINER.

The Slawson Submariner Federal wells are tracked here, but have not been updated in a long time.

The well:

  • 32274,2,117, Slawson, Submariner Federal 2 SLH, 31 stages; 2.6 million lbs; 63 stages; 13.8 million lbs; Big Bend, t6/19; cum 165K 2/20; remains off line 9/20; back on line 2/21; cum 377K 10/21; cum 660K 10/24;

Production at time of initial drilling:

BAKKEN2-202029338093437035236290011175017106
BAKKEN1-2020109339910512698800830583899
BAKKEN12-2019302279622195322721587136675322
BAKKEN11-2019281316713915236981158160004036
BAKKEN10-2019311891818551316331654658658490
BAKKEN9-201917152481489428111320560910860
BAKKEN8-2019168822938317092765206615
BAKKEN7-20199426238618240397114272035
BAKKEN6-20192125592249428724222504019587

2021 - 2022, with jump in production:

BAKKEN3-20223116126165131541114191127771259
BAKKEN2-2022281606915935153321364697623744
BAKKEN1-2022311415413887159951195876384165
BAKKEN12-202117594564068498499233161591
BAKKEN11-20213022615224801897719628100399439
BAKKEN10-20212926095261372139122702941813141
BAKKEN9-20212928228278072550624657614318369
BAKKEN8-20213130527311503008826866730219410
BAKKEN7-20212933595335463287529531952419862
BAKKEN6-2021231794617345222031538358909377
BAKKEN5-2021312024120809301531763293258152
BAKKEN4-20213019855198683408617036533511551
BAKKEN3-20212422663230142786119664134118203
BAKKEN2-2021131237911011118331065436910220

Current production, still a great well:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20242637433254324298509480242
BAKKEN9-2024304350450730161065310021483
BAKKEN8-2024304784476439751170991452415
BAKKEN7-2024305283502951941066710380136
BAKKEN6-20243059106048628111139109890
BAKKEN5-20241322142714291239363486385
BAKKEN4-20243050894782708693538967237
BAKKEN3-20243155535987794990978243699
BAKKEN2-2024285333495356928609837297