Intel: An Update -- November 9, 2024

Locator: 48745TECH.

Updates

November 11, 2024: Intel's biggest threat? ARM?

November 11, 2024, AMD head-to-head with Intel (they both do the same thing --CPUs):

• AMD shipments are up 15% Q/Q, vs
• Intel shipments fell 3%, and worse,
• ARM adoption is increasing -- with server unit unit share reaching 7% in 3Q24.

November 11, 2024: link here.

Ticker today:

Original Post

Previously posted with an update:

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Meanwhile, The Mess Over At Intel Continues

Link here.

A Linux patch suggests that Intel engineers plan to implement a feature that tags your system as vulnerable if you're running outdated microcodes, (via Phoronix). This comes in light of the recent Intel 13th Generation and 14th Generation degradation fiasco, which is now pushing Team Blue towards a class action lawsuit.

The patch argues that you cannot run a system with old microcode and consider it safe. Microcode is basically a set of instructions in the CPU that can be updated post-launch to fix critical flaws and security vulnerabilities. The patch proposes that users should be informed clearly and concisely that their PC is potentially unsafe - marking the system as vulnerable or not vulnerable. The author calls to report this vulnerability in "/sys/devices/system/cpu/vulnerabilities/old_microcode", so that a single file can be used to prompt the user to update their microcode.

Update, Saturday, November 9, 2024: with regard to the "mess over at Intel," link here:

Or, direct to The Verge.

From the linked article:

Reviews of Intel’s new Arrow Lake-based Core Ultra 9 200S-series processor have been lackluster, specifically when it comes to gaming performance, but Intel says that’s not the end of the story.

Its new chips should be performing better, and the company will have an ETA on getting them there soon, according to Robert Hallock, Intel’s VP and GM of client AI and technical marketing, in a new interview with HotHardware’s Dave Altavilla and Marco Chiappetta.

Intel was up-front in saying these new chips wouldn’t beat AMD’s chips for gaming. But reviewers’ findings have been unexpectedly poor. Despite some efficiency gains like those noted in Tom Warren’s Verge review of the Core Ultra 9 285K, the new chip seems to lag behind even Intel’s earlier Raptor Lake chips in gaming. That’s to say nothing of its performance versus AMD’s very good Ryzen 9800X3D.

It will be interesting to see if analysts read these reports.

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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

• I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
• Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  
• If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
• Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
• I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
• And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.
• Longer version here.

The Political Page, Part 2 - November 9, 2024

Locator: 48744POLITICS.

Updates

8:17 p.m. CT: neither Nikki Haley nor Mike Pompeo will be coming back to the White House in the second Trump administration. Source: Trump, social media.

• to some extent, this looks like Trump may be removing potential presidential candidates that might want to take on JD Vance in 2028; particularly Nikki Haley; or,
• may simply be looking for "clean" break from his first term (with some exceptions, of course.
• also: important to ask what role Susie Wiles may have played in decision?
  

7:36 p.m. CT: Doug Burgum -- Trump's energy czar? Even more important than SecEnergy? Link here. And the best thing: czars don't require US Senate confirmation. They can start working for the president-elect now -- even before the president is confirmed. I wonder how the new energy czar would feel about the DAPL issue?

6:53 p.m. CT: Senate Republican Majority Leader -- election to be held next week, Wednesday, November 13, 2024. Three in contention: John Thune, John Cornyn, Rick Scott. Both Thune and Cornyn have broken with Trump in the past; Rick Scott is a personal favorite of Trump's new chief of staff, Susie Wiles. If Donald Trump does not endorse any of the three, John Thune probably has the best chance of being the next Republican Majority Leader.

Later: Cornyn is pretty much a "Liz Cheney" in his attitude / relationship with Trump. Thune has broken with Trump before but seems like he could work with Trump. Of course, it goes without saying that Rick Scott and Trump are joined at the hip but Rick Scott much more abrasive and may not be able to work with the full GOP coalition. So far Trump has stayed out of this, not endorsing any of the three, knowing he needs to work with the majority leader when all is said and done.

5:42 p.m. CT:  must-watch by everyone.

Original Post 

Sports: South Dakota State (#3) at North Dakota (#21)

• end of first quarter, UND leads 7 - 3
• beginning of second quarter; SDSU leads, 10 - 7 
• at 10:35, second quarter: SDSU leads, 17 - 7
• at 6:30, second quarter: SDSU leads, 24 - 7
• unless there are significant changes, I'll stop here, with regard to this game.
  

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Politics

Each day that goes by following the election, the more disillusioned I become with  a) legacy media -- print and evening news; b) the elites on the East Coast and in Sacramento, CA; and, c) state governors who are more concerned about undocumented murderers and human traffickers than protecting law-abiding citizens.  Prior to the election, I didn't care and I didn't follow.

But, on the other hand, I've become a huge fan of YouTube videos, full shows: 

Megyn Kelly; Jesse Watters; SkyNews Lefties Losing It; The View; MSNBC, particularly Morning Joe. Unfortunately Rachel Maddow airs only once a week now, but gets paid $30 million / annually for that one-hour show. I now usually spend the midnight hours watching these videos.

This never gets old: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rNeNSElwW0Q. Not only once but twice. LOL. The biggest doofus among many? Mark Cuban. [Yes, even more so than George Clooney, but some would argue, it’s a toss-up.]

Trump stopping both Hillary and Harris? Priceless.

12:37 a.m. ET, early Wednesday morning, following Tuesday: Georgia called for Trump! 12:37 a.m. ET.

That's when it changed for me, 11:37 p.m. CT. November 5, 2024.

I knew it was over, at 11:37 p.m. CT. Harris had to win Pennsylvania or it was all over for her.

Harris crowds were told to go home and come back in the morning. 12:45 a.m. ET CNN saw it coming. 12:53 a.m. ET -- CNN in shock. Still "if" but CNN contributors obviously nervous, 1:13 a.m. ET. "Not there yet." But by this time Fox had already called it. 2:05 a.m. ET, CNN calls Pennsylvania for Trump, and that's when I went to bed. But at 266 electoral votes CNN still hadn't called the national election for Trump. Wow, at 266, CNN still holding back. Even after Trump's celebratory / victory speech, CNN still did not call the national election for Trump. Wow.

Desperation: Governor Newsom signing legislation outlawing airing of AI-generated parody. 

Reposting:

"Trump-proofing" their states. Amazing how governors of New Jersey, Minnesota, California are more concerned about undocumented murderers and human traffickers than protecting law-abiding citizens. Personally I don't get it.

The good news? The Trump administration will know how to craft earmarks for funding attorneys general around the country. 

Thanksgiving dinner:

Agentic AI, see also Motley Fool:

Money matters:

I understand trading but I don't understand insanity. Are folks even paying attention?

It's not as if there aren't a thousand other tickers to buy (investing or trading).

Rivian, 3Q24:

• a miss on the top and bottom lines. 
• 3Q24 revenue, a huge miss: $874 million vs $990 million forecast.
• a loss of $39,130 per vehicle
• that's $9,000 worse than 3Q224 (last year)
• a loss off 99 cents vs a loss of 92 cents expected
• guidance: wider loss for full year than originally forecast -- trending in wrong direction 
• in interview with CNBC: CEO blames everything, including supply change shortages (plural; below, it was singular)
  
• to me, sounds like incredibly poor execution
• CEO calls it "noise." 
• avoids answering finance questions; pivots back to building a better truck; focused on customer;

From a month ago:

Revenue drops for first time since IPO, link here:

• due to short supply of a part, Rivian last month slashed its full-year production forecast to between 47,000 and 49,000 vehicles, from its earlier projection of 57,000 units;
• 50,000 vehicles x $39,000 = 50 x 40 x 10^6 = 50 x 40 x million = 2,000 million = $2 billion

The Political Edition -- Sweep -- November 9, 2024

Locator: 48743POLITICS.

Texas: gorgeous north Texas weather this morning. Bright sunshine, no wind, absolutely clear skies, and it must be in the 60s. High for the day, forecast, 71°.  Morning in America.  

McDonald's: drive-through stretching around the block. I'm inside. Best deal in town is the $5.00 meal. Seriously. For $5.00, not sure how they can do it. The ice cream machine, I see, is working.

Local gasoline, regular: $2.49 is the best I see right now; generally about $2.79 around town. 

Inflation: the two things that will drop prices the fastest -- drop in price of oil ("drill, baby, drill") and continued cutting of the Fed rate. Both are likely to happen under Trump.

Clever: Trump knows he can't "fire" JPow and JPow says he's not going to step down early, so, how does one make JPow irrelevant? The market looks six months to one year out. Powell's term ends in 2026. Trump will nominate and get JPow's successor confirmed in 2025. The market will pay attention to the new Fed chair -- making JPow completely irrelevant. And completely unfettered by the administration. A win-win for everyone. 

Stock market: the market will finish two incredible years under Joe Biden. That becomes the new marker. If the market does more poorly under Trump than it did under Joe Biden, most folks will consider Trump's administration a failure. 

• the S&P is up 37% over the last full year (late 2023 - late 2024). 
• January, 2021 -- December, 2023: 4,770  - 3,690 = 29% over two years.
• those are going to be huge bars for Trump to beat.

Family income protection act? FIPA:

• no tax on overtime pay;
• no tax on social security;
• no tax on tips;
• and, yes, income limits for those tax-free benefits.

Joe Rogan: the new Rush Limbaugh?

Trump takes Nevada? Sweep? Trump did better in 49 states than Harris based on Harris (2024) - Biden (2020) votes?

Trump takes Arizona? This needs to be fact-checked. Getting incredibly little media coverage if accurate. If accurate: Trump swept swing states. Dukakis? McGovern? Harris? A trifecta.

Cable news ratings election night: link here.

Peanut. Wiki. Are you serious? Is this really what changed the election outcome?

$1 billion. Others are now asking the same question asked earlier -- how does a candidate who raised $1 billion against her opponent's $350 million lose to a convicted felon? By the way, apparently:

• the Harris campaign ends 2024 in debt; and,
• that Oprah interview with Harris? Paid for by Harris. $1 million to Oprah.

North Dakota governor Doug Burgum: energy czar for the Trump administration?

Gap term: right, wrong, indifferent -- best thing that ever happened for Trump ... will hit the ground running on January 20th. Has had four years to prepare for this day.

"Trump-proofing" their states. Amazing how governors of New Jersey, Minnesota, California are more concerned about undocumented murderers and human traffickers than protecting law-abiding citizens. Personally I don't get it.

Apache To Exit North Sea -- Windfall Tax Makes The Play "Non-Economical" -- November 8, 2024

Locator: 48742B.

"Keeping Families Together": I fully support this program but the president doesn't have the authority to do this unilaterally -- at least that's what the left is reminding us about what Trump might do. We still have a constitution. This is Civics 101.

Speaking of which: the left wants a 70-year-old Supreme Court justice to step down immediately so that Biden can appoint a younger justice to take her place. Hope springs eternal.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI:

Active rigs: 37.

Five new permits, #41324 - #31328, inclusive:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Manitou (Mountrail)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for five more EN-Rice wells, SWSW 11-155-94, 
• to be sited 462 FSL and between 721 FWL and 853 FWL.

Five permits renewed:

• Grayson Mill: five Tufto permits, NWNE 18-155-100, Cow Creek, Williams County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 37834, 5,794, MRL, Betty Lou USA 14-33TFH, Reunion Bay, Mountrail, 2560-acre spacing, sections 28 / 29 / 32 / 33 - 152-93; from file report, looks like seven wells to be sited on the pad; standard Bakken two-mile horizontal laterals. Laterals pretty much entirely within sections 33 / 28.
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2024	29	30087	30135	37300	33172	33091	10
BAKKEN	8-2024	28	66085	65990	68997	64906	64605	188

• 40595, 1,125, CLR, Doe 4-23H, Murphy Creek, Dunn County, npd.

Well of interest (re: #37834, Betty Lou USA):

• 26807, 2,704/recently off line, just coming back on line, MRO, Earl Pennington USA 44-33H, Reunion Bay, t5/14; cum 577K 5/24;

Week 45: November 3, 2024 -- November 9, 2024

Locator: 48743TOPSTORIES.

Will Trump be on the cover of Time Magazine? Will he be named Person of the Year?

From Geoff Simon last week:

• breaking through that glass ceiling: Republican Julie Fedorchak will be the first woman to represent North Dakota in the US House of Representatives
  
• North Dakota ex-gov Doug Burgum might be Trump's energy czar.
• Michele Strinden: lieutenant governor: another woman breaking the glass ceiling
  
• DAPL back in the news
• NoDaks don't mind paying property taxes; voters said "no" to repeal the state's assessment-based property tax system
  

Top story of the week: 

• Donald Trump: 47th President of the United States of America
  

Top international non-energy story:

• foreign leaders race to be the first to congratulate Donald Trump!
  

Top international energy story:

• 
  

Top national non-energy story:

• from last week, this did not age well: if polls are correct, Harris will win by a landslide
  
• from last week, this  looks like "dirty tricks": polls suggesting Iowa had flipped to Harris 
• Bill Maher predicted a Harris victory
• how does a candidate who spent $1 billion on a campaign lose to a convicted convict?
  

Top national energy story:

• 
  

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• 
  

Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

The market in a nutshell: an incredible week for the market -- after Trump's win -- "animal spirits" were let loose --