Tell Me Again: We're In A Recession (Charlie Munger) -- November 14, 2023

Locator: 46053INV. 

Schwab: our local Schwab office -- and specifically our personal Schwab broker -- hosts a monthly luncheon -- Investing 101 and Market Updates -- about twenty folks are invited --for the past year it's been interesting to watch the number of investors incredibly concerned about the future of the market; it will be interesting to see the (expected) "sea change" later this month.

Big story: today, if listening to CNBC all day long -- CNBC generally very, very negative -- everything points to an incredible 2024. We may be in best "investing configuration" we've seen in a very, very, very long time.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey: holy mackerel — up 9.1% when expectations were a minus 0.9%. Bidenomics? Link here.

Houses: mortgage demand highest in five months.

Target: earnings smash estimates.

Right now, overnight futures: hold.

Wow, this gets tedious. The WSJ.

No sign of recession or stagflation: The WSJ. 

Wholesale prices: fall 0.5% for greatest monthly decline since April 2020 — that’s three and a half years.

Wholesale prices in October posted their biggest decline in 2½ years, providing another indication that the worst of the inflation surge may have passed. 

The producer price index, which measures final-demand costs for businesses, declined 0.5% for the month, against expectations for a 0.1% from the Dow Jones consensus.

The department said that was the biggest monthly decline since April 2020. Excluding food and energy, core PPI was unchanged, also below the forecast for a 0.3% increase. Excluding food, energy and trade services, the index increased 0.1%.

BRK 13F. The WSJ. Barron’s.

Target: delivery.

Debt: global problem.

Gaza: update.

UK inflation: unexpectedly plummets. Lowest in two years.

 

UAW pact: update. More and more tea leaves suggest we're back to square one.

Polestar: update. One word: claustrophobic.

Volvo: update. Also, here.

The Market -- November 14, 2023

Locator: 46052INV.  

At the close:

CNBC is saying -- this is not me -- this is CNBC saying this -- all those folks that loaded up on MMFs to get 5% over the next year are now getting FOMO ....

The market has gone nowhere for two years ... we've had two bear markets in the past year --- the onus is now on the bears to prove we're headed for a recession. [Some will push back and the onus is on the bulls to keep the rally going.] So, we'll see.

Director's Cut To Be Released at 3:00 PM CT Today ---- September, 2023, Data

Locator: 46051CUT.  

Link here. Twitter summary.

Link here. Not viewable on my Apple laptop using the Firefox browser.

Director's Cuts are tracked here. 

Disclaimer applies. 

DUCs and wells off-line for operational reasons tracked here.

Producing wells: 18,179 -- new all-time high (July, 2023)

• new all-time high, this month, September, 2023: 18,538 producing wells (preliminary)
  
• the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources reported the state had 18,396 producing wells in August, 2023.
• gas capture, statewide: 95% (down 1% m/m)
  

Highlights.

• active rigs
• today: 35
• October: 33
  
• September: 37
• 37: August, 2023
  
• 37: July, 2023
  
• 37: June, 2023
  
• expected to rise to the mid-forties with gradual increase over next two years;

• crude oil production: 
• September, 2023: 1,278,190 (+44.56%)
  
• August, 2023: 1,223,617 (+3.3%)
  
• July, 2023: 1,180,692 (+1%)
  
• June, 2023: 1,166,604 bopd
• May, 2023: 1,135,009 bopd

• crude price (ND light sweet):
• today: $72.55
• September, 2023: $83.07
  
• August, 2023: $77.15
  
• July, 2023: $70.35.
  
• June, 2023: $64.18
  
• May, 2023; $65.82

• natural gas:
  
• September, 2023: 3,4440,284 MCF / day -- new all-time high
  
• August, 2023: 3,312,919 MCF/day (+0.3%)
• July, 2023: 3,292,150 MCF/day (+1%)
  
• June, 2023: 3,247,513 MCF/day
• May, 2023: 3,156,883 MCF/day

• wells permitted:
  
• October: 77
  
• September: 59
• August: 87
• July: 70
• June: 85
• May: 63
• April: 89

• DUCs:
• September: 367
  
• August: 376
  
• July: 419
  
• June: 433
  
• May: 459
• April: 458

• inactive:
• September: 1,547
  
• August: 1,624
  
• July: 1,665
  
• June: 1,693
  
• May: 1,779
• April, 1,899

• completed:
• October: 96 (preliminary)
  
• September: 129 (preliminary)
  
• August: 91
  
• July: 83
  
• June: 85 
  
• May: 138 
  
• April: 51 
  

• producing: 
  
• September, 2023: 18,538 (preliminary; new all-time high)
• August, 2023: 18,396 (yet another new all-time high)
• July, 2023: 18,179 (new all-time high)
• June, 2023: 18,101 (new all-time high)
  
• May, 2023: 17,9292 (new all-time)
• April: 17,768

MRO's Deuce Pad In Bailey Oil Field -- November 14, 2023

Locator: 46050MRODEUCE.   

This should be fun. Let's walk through this together.

First, the first map:

Now, why am I interested in those five wells? Look at these two maps:

With all those confidential wells on that 12-well pad, let's see if there might be something to indicate any activity.

Now, let's look at those five wells:

#1: Bob Tuhy OFFLINE

• 16666, 1,374, MRO, Bob Tuhy 44-19H, Bailey, t11/08; cum 519K 2/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	27	1817	1935	719	2077	0	1774
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1979	1948	813	2274	0	1930
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	1958	1976	935	2239	0	1904

#2: Olson HUGE JUMP IN PRODUCTION

• 17417, 376, MRO, Olson 14-20H, Bailey, t12/08; cum 443K 9/23:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	12831	12824	57126	13548	13330	181
BAKKEN	8-2023	28	10036	10082	46841	10320	10233	52
BAKKEN	7-2023	17	13613	13533	83099	13503	13317	128
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	1336	1396	670	2696	2286	112
BAKKEN	2-2023	28	1244	1236	573	2406	1943	187
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1181	1099	567	2334	1754	301

#3: Corinne Olson

• 19118, PA/TA, MRO, Corrine Olson 34-20, Bailey,

#4: C.O. HUGE JUMP IN PRODUCTION

• 23699, 1,374, MRO, C.O. 34-20H, Bailey, t11/12; cum 387K 9/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	18181	18177	51506	16810	16543	222
BAKKEN	8-2023	29	16017	15970	60777	14495	14374	73
BAKKEN	7-2023	3	1156	1149	18684	982	969	9
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2023	7	244	379	128	322	241	18
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1145	1126	632	1459	1100	64
BAKKEN	12-2022	30	1097	1066	634	1316	897	151

#5: MRO, Klay Carlson OFFLINE

• 23980, 576, MRO, Klay Carlson 41-29TFH, Bailey, t6/13; cum 220K 5/23:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2023	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2023	25	738	794	920	1042	735	101
BAKKEN	4-2023	28	909	846	1115	1256	594	427
BAKKEN	3-2023	31	1154	1159	1446	1768	1265	221
BAKKEN	2-2023	27	1003	1026	1149	1523	1097	191
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1208	1216	1442	1830	1358	186

 The twelve-pad updated:

16666, see above,

39361, drl/drl, MRO, Skip 31-29H, Bailey,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	29	28632	28573	29541	24388	24003	320
BAKKEN	8-2023	7	9527	9495	13974	6928	6871	34

• 39368, drl/drl, MRO, Red 31-29TFH, Bailey,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	29	15886	15892	3012	13918	13698	183
BAKKEN	8-2023	15	16898	16842	0	14704	14582	73

• 39369, drl/drl, MRO, Amber 31-29H, Bailey,

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	29	12157	12160	44013	11429	11247	151
BAKKEN	8-2023	16	12597	12555	56956	9546	9468	47

• 39370, drl/conf, MRO, Deuce 21-29TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 49K 9/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	25056	25056	50599	20119	19804	262
BAKKEN	8-2023	21	23623	23544	57269	16454	16320	81

• 39371, drl/conf, MRO, Thompson 44-20TFH, Bailey, NPD,

• 39372, drl/A, MRO, Sandra 44-20TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 12/22;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	23607	23581	46539	20914	20583	275
BAKKEN	8-2023	23	14592	14543	35900	14042	13924	71

• 39373, drl/A, MRO, Louise 34-20TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 67K 9/23

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	33443	33449	39488	30957	30465	409
BAKKEN	8-2023	25	33582	33470	46432	30703	30447	154
BAKKEN	7-2023	2	0	0	20	0	0

• 39374, drl/A, MRO, Peggy 24-20H, Bailey, t--; cum 89K 9/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	29	27834	27886	31412	29710	29234	396
BAKKEN	8-2023	31	41826	41801	43106	37301	36990	187
BAKKEN	7-2023	6	19495	19380	22298	14600	14402	136

• 39375, drl/A, MRO, Beth 24-20TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 79K 9/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	32299	32295	45724	33785	33244	450
BAKKEN	8-2023	30	29286	29291	38365	30252	29998	153
BAKKEN	7-2023	8	17440	17337	25303	16906	16673	160

• 39376, drl/A, MRO, Whalen 14-20H, Bailey, t--; cum 126K 9/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	38118	38137	34974	35977	35405	476
BAKKEN	8-2023	29	41991	42120	45104	39448	39119	198
BAKKEN	7-2023	30	45674	45405	67486	44652	44038	422

• 39377, drl/A, MRO, Leah 14-200TFH, Bailey, t--; cum 80K 9/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	9-2023	30	22756	22732	32959	24770	24372	331
BAKKEN	8-2023	23	14497	14700	23699	14002	13884	71
BAKKEN	7-2023	23	42735	42484	54200	38935	38401	367

BRK-B Vs The S&P 500

Locator: 46049BRK.  

The charts:

Cash hoard? Why?

Nvidia:

 

On another note: this is why I don't favor restricting members of Congress from investing just like the rest of us: see this post. 

Did AAPL get back to a $3-trillion market cap? Nope, close but no cigar:

Based on these numbers, it looks like AAPL needs to hit $193 / share to get back to a $3-trillion market cap.