Down And Dirty -- I'm All In -- June 30, 2022

If one reads Peter Zeihan, c. 2022, and at the same time one is following world events, it's time to panic.

I haven't watched CNBC in months. Tonight while looking for "streaming" sports, I spent 120 seconds or thereabouts on Jim Cramer.

I don't recall ever seeing Jim Cramer so pessimistic. What a doofus.

Worse, his interview with the VP of IBM. Talk about a depressing interview. IBM is begging for government help to jump-start the semiconductor industry. Say what? IBM begging for government help? LOL. You won't see TSM, AAPL, or NVDA doing that. In this environment, IBM needs help from the government? Oh, give me a break.

Cramer said he took his huge profit in CVX and sold "some" from his charitable trust. 

With two consecutive quarters of negative growth, most folks would say we are in a recession.

A lot of folks disagree.

I could(n't) care less. 

What would you prefer, a recession that lasts six months, or Turkish inflation of 20% that lasts three years?

No hurry. Take your time.

 Biden says high gasoline prices are not transitory. 

Cramer is afraid to go all in on oil. Why? Windfall profits tax.

 Yes, it may happen, but two things.

First, only Congress can legislate windfall profits tax. Not gonna happen.

Second, every Biden initiative vis a vis the price of oil is a misstep. Or deliberate.

A windfall profits tax: bullish for oil. Counterintutive. 

Oil companies, to minimize the impact of a windfall profits tax, will simply cut back on production.

But I digress. Good, bad, or indifferent, I remain fully invested. 

No market timing for me. 

Bottom line: I'm betting the farm. As they say. 

I'm fully invested. And staying fully invested. 

But ATT (T) paying almost 6%! Are you kidding me?

AAPL at $134 or thereabouts. Are you kidding me?

This Is The Bakken -- June 30, 2022

These wells have paid for themselves at the wellhead. Don't take that out of context. 

Two wells off confidential list today:

• 38178, drl/A,  Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-9, Antelope-Sanish, first production, 1/22; t--; cum 148K 5/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
SANISH	5-2022	29	21448	21444	9460	0	0	0
SANISH	4-2022	29	20229	20239	6960	30332	30241	52
SANISH	3-2022	31	26644	26688	9610	40989	39911	1028
SANISH	2-2022	28	34470	34442	18248	44007	42247	1702
SANISH	1-2022	31	41993	41899	20999	54680	36432	18183
SANISH	12-2021	2	2885	2855	1636	7966	7160	782

• 37144, conf, Hess, BL-Olson-155-96-0310H-4, Beaver Lodge, first production, 1/22; t--; cum 99K 5/22;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	5-2022	30	12723	12746	19433	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	23	11295	11250	15939	42383	41846	537
BAKKEN	3-2022	31	17588	17613	18523	51479	46425	5054
BAKKEN	2-2022	24	19538	19635	27006	45058	44340	718
BAKKEN	1-2022	31	37685	37453	52815	69452	66293	3159
BAKKEN	12-2021	13	74	72	14	2596	2594	2

Koda Resources With Two New Permits -- June 30, 2022

WTI: $105.90.

Active rigs: 44

Two new permits, #39062 - #39063, inclusive:

• Operator: Koda Resources
• Fields: Daneville (Divide); Fertile Valley (Divide)
• Comments: 
• Koda Resources has permits for two Bock wells, SESE 32-161-102; 
• to be sited between 409 FSL and 439 FSL and 375 FEL

Two wells off confidential list:

• 38178, conf,  Hess, AN-Norby-152-94-0409H-9,
• 37144, conf, Hess, BL-Olson-155-96-0310H-4,

Market Rambling -- This Is NOT An Investment Site -- Usual Disclaimer Applies -- June 30, 2022

ATT (T) maintained its dividend and is yielding over 5%, and doing fairly well in a "down" market. 

I have a reader who keeps talking about Disney as an investment. We are yet to see  DIS's low.

Perhaps.

But it seems folks are making this too difficult. 

Very different sectors and different businesses, but in the big scheme of things, DIS is a lot like T. 

Instead of obsessing about whether or not to buy DIS, simply park your money in T while deciding whether to buy DIS or not.

Park it in DIS and get 0% yield. Park it in T and get a 5%+ yield while waiting.

****************************

CLR

On another note, remember that Harold Hamm "tease" about taking the company private.

No news in several weeks.

I'll do the math later, but imagine how much free cash flow Harold Hamm must have if he is able to buy the rest of his company.

Now, think about all the other shale companies NOT going private and how much free cash flow they must have. 

Instead of taking their companies private, their boards are going to authorize increased dividends and share buybacks. 

 

******************************
Sailing School

End of day. Ninth day of sailing school.

Century Aluminum In Kentucky Shuts Down Due To High Energy Prices -- June 30, 2022

I'll be off the net in a few minutes for about two hours, but I will leave you with this, sent to me by a reader the other day.

This is in Hawesville, KY, USA, where energy prices are probably a third of what they are in Germany.

From Manufacturing Business Technology:

The Century Aluminum plant in Hawesville, Kentucky, is shutting down production due to rising energy costs.

In a statement, the company says the plant idling is the "direct result of skyrocketing energy costs," specifically blaming the Russian war in Ukraine for the dramatic increase.

The production stoppage will impact some 628 workers, who will be laid off at the second-largest employer in the area, according to the Messenger-Inquirer.

The company will close the smelter for nine to 12 months, beginning Monday, until energy prices return to normal levels. The company only gave employees about three days' notice, informing them of the closure last Wednesday. 

Is "recession" spelled with one "c" or two?