George Carlin On Stupid People In Large Groups -- September 15, 2021

 
Spotted: stupid people in a large group in the wild.

I just wrote about this on September 8, 2021. Before the Met Gala.

State Of US Shale -- Irina Slav -- September 15, 2021

Link here to Irina Slav.

It would have been unthinkable a few months ago: ramping up production was the last thing U.S. shale drillers would do amid a hesitant price recovery and heavy uncertainty around demand recovery. In these few months, however, a lot has changed. Now, U.S. shale drillers may be ready to get back to drilling. The current situation in U.S. oil is one that shale companies must have dreamed about during the worst of the crisis. Inventories are down considerably, thanks to recovering demand. But they are also down due to the recent shut-ins of offshore production thanks to Hurricane Ida.

On top of that, the shale industry's own inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) is also down considerably, Reuters has reported, citing analysts and industry insiders.

This means that soon, we could see a more sizeable increase in the U.S. rig count as shale producers seek to avert a decline in production. It also means that shale companies might see some renewed investor criticism because drilling more would require higher spending, and investors have been extra-sensitive towards spending recently.

Entire article is archived.

One Graphic Worth A Thousand Words -- German Energy -- September 15, 2021

 

Jim Cramer's Rant And An Ivermectin Story -- September 15, 2021

Jim Cramer opened with one of his longer openers on "what it takes for the next rally. It wasn't much of a rant at Jim Cramer rants go, but it wasn't bad. Jim Cramer is very, very negative about the "September market." He perpetuates the theme that September is a "bad month" for investors. I beg to differ: when wouldn't investors like buying opportunities. It may be different for traders.

Jim provided a list of fifteen items he felt were needed for the next leg up in the US equity markets.

Jim Cramer -- ingredients to make a rally (my comments in parentheses):

• good employment numbers (at 5.2% unemployment we're pretty near full employment)
  
• moderate inflation (historically it's near the norm, it seems; it only seems high because of several years of really, really low inflation)
  
• chip shortage relief
  
• easing supply chain
• improved port conditions (why is there such a backlog at the ports; has anyone asked that question?)
  
• earnings reports that reflect supply meeting demand
• stabilization of input cost hikes
• open schools: frees up parents to go back to work; closed schools contribute to labor shortage
• decreased hospitalizations
  
• increased air passengers (not gonna happen in the near term; folks are betting too much on increased air traffic)
  
• improved hotel occupancy (this seems odd to be on this list)
  
• rising rates due to more economic activity, not inflation
• slowdown in underwritings
• more buybacks: buy up excess shares
• Washington and Beijing need to get off the radar screen (not going to happen)

Cramer had long interview with CEO of CVX. I'm disappointed in CVX although I don't quite understand why.

********************************
A Covid-19 Story

Ivermectin.

I don't have a dog in this fight. I just find it incredibly interesting. Just like the Bakken: when I first started blogging about the Bakken, I had no dog in that fight, no personal financial interest in the Bakken; it was simply an interesting story about which I was trying to figure out.

Same with Ivermectin. 

This link takes you to a story posted by a woman with personal experience with Covid-10. The writer is a designer and makes her living via Instagram, according to the individual who sent me the link. 

According to the reader, the woman who posted this story set up a separate Instagram account to share her story so they wouldn't take her account down and end her family's income stream. The reader says this will be interesting from a censorship perspective. I agree.

The link to the story is here.

Dashboards Posted; Hess With Six New Permits; One Permit Renewed -- Wednesday, September 15, 2021

Hulu: I absolutely love Hulu. I'm sure the others (Disney, Roku, etc.) are just as good but Hulu is absolutely amazing. I missed the opening of Fast Money with Melissa but when I tuned it, I was able to start over. I will have to skip ahead to get "back on schedule" but that works. It's amazing. 

The market: incredible today. It will be interesting if Jim Cramer keeps to his script: the market will pullback severely in September.

Covid-19 is so over.

Russia: one-two punch, price of Russia's flagshiop Urals grade slumped this week --

• Russia will increase supple and exports; even, as
• Iraq cuts the price of oil for Europe

Nord Stream 2: comes just as European gas prices reach 13-year high. 

Gasoline demand, link here: for most recent week, dropped below 9.0 million bopd. GasBuddy prepared us for this data point. This has nothing to do with Covid-19; this is all about the price of gasoline. Period. Dot. 

Energy, investing: mentioned on Fast Money -- Devon and EOG (positive); CVX (negative).

***************************
Back to the Bakken

EIA dashboards for September: have been posted:

• EIA pdf, Bakken: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/bakken.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Permian: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/permian.pdf
• EIA, pdf, Eagle Ford: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/eagleford.pdf

Active rigs*, daily update at 5:00 p.m:

$72.61	9/15/2021	09/15/2020	09/15/2019	09/15/2018	09/15/2017
Active Rigs	24*	12	64	65	56

Six new permits, #38859 - #38864, inclusive:

• Operator: Hess
• Field: Wheelock (Williams)
• Comments:
• Hess has permits for six GO-Haug wells in SESE 19-156-98; 
• they will be sited 395 FSL and between 548 FEL and 713 FEL;
• existing GO-Haug well:
• 20391, 824, Hess, GO-Haug-156-98-3031H-1, Wheelock, t9/11; cum 278K 7/21;
  

One permit renewed:

• 39222, loc, Whiting, Crane Creek State 11-16H, 
• existing well on that pad:
• 21061, 1,006, Whiting, Crane Creek State 11-16TFH, t11/11; cum 201K 7/21;
  

Four permits were canceled:

• Resource Energy Can-Am: one Odyssey permit, one Charger permit, and two Beetle permits in Divide County, SESE section 31-163-98;