Wednesday, April 21, 2021

Most-Under-Reported Energy Story Today -- April 21, 2021

Gasoline demand, link here. 

Most recent one week, daily average: 9.103 million b/d.

And driving season is yet to begin. 

Huge. 

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Landman's Life

Link here.

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Baker Hughes 1Q21 Earnings Beat Estimates, Increase Year-Over-Year; Gasoline Demand -- Most Under-Reported Energy Story Today -- April 21, 2021

Link here.

  • 1Q21: 12 cents vs 11 cents forecast; and 11 cents one year earlier;
  • revenue: $4.782 billion vs $4.797 billion forecast; one year earlier: $5.425 billion;
  • one year earlier would have been just before the bottom fell out with the Covid-19 pandemic.

BC: before Covid.

AD: after Donald.

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Most Under-Reported Energy Story Today

Gasoline demand, link here. 

Most recent one week, daily average: 9.103 million b/d.

And driving season is yet to begin. 

Huge. 

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A Closer Look At A BR Old Hickory Well In Sand Creek -- April 21, 2021

Over at "Wells of Interest" I post production data for wells that might shed a little bit of light on the Bakken and unconventional / tight oil.

Here's another one. I assume I've posted this one elsewhere, and it may even posted at "wells of interest" and I've lost track of it. Whatever. It's worth taking another look at this well drilled over a decade ago and still going (relatively) strong.

The well:

  • 18662, 2,145, BR, Old Hickory 43-34H, Sand Creek, t5/10; cum 457K 2/21;

The NDIC map suggests there are least eleven more drilling locations in this 1280-acre (two-section) drilling unit. 

I'll post the full production profile elsewhere, but note the most recent twelve months:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20212823812354107514495144250
BAKKEN1-20213133723387145516082160050
BAKKEN12-20201016202272001750
BAKKEN11-202083342773199119740
BAKKEN10-20202615801640663582657610
BAKKEN9-20203026432924942834982750
BAKKEN8-20201217091316601543054000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20201000000
BAKKEN5-2020261043128920346524160427
BAKKEN4-20203020591899937723871640
BAKKEN3-20203118581884552696568880

Back in 2016:

BAKKEN5-20163185788653179614081140040
BAKKEN4-20163079027872173711156110810
BAKKEN3-20163188748579192912874127970
BAKKEN2-20162956986184235510490104180
BAKKEN1-20163166776501304453384731530
BAKKEN12-2015311078410549455214291312611088
BAKKEN11-2015239349301701650
BAKKEN10-2015111618180376261412201367
BAKKEN9-2015203435317374823141497767
BAKKEN8-201511301025230
BAKKEN7-2015314232436697766928255790
BAKKEN6-2015283584373092468375906178
BAKKEN5-201525530050812059947515237890

Initial production unremarkable:

BAKKEN11-201082388251146829042434470
BAKKEN10-2010318811869010781354699983548
BAKKEN9-20102476557842122315409154090
BAKKEN8-2010311326712992234321293165474746
BAKKEN7-2010311523015307116922406129759431
BAKKEN6-201030196411960116781683552016315
BAKKEN5-201025206842053012991013434556679


The frack in 2010:

  • four separate entries in the file report: 10 stages, 2 stages; 4 stages; 4 stages on four separate days, April 23, 2010 - April 26, 2010, inclusive:
    • 10 stages, 943,660 lbs proppant;
    • 2 stages; 236,096 lbs proppant;
    • 4 stages; 463,251 lbs proppant;
    • 4 stages; 479,398 lbs proppant.

The graphic:

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Surprise, Surprise -- US Equity Markets Reverse Direction -- April 21, 2021

The US equity markets: completely unexpected. After two days of profit-taking, and futures pointing toward a third day of "red," all four major indices suddenly turn green. Third stock I checked:

  • UNP: up 2.14%; up $4.72; trading over $225. Ended up hitting a new high, but then settled back a bit. Closed at $223.56.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

For investors:

  • 10-Year Treasury: link here. 1.566. In a "trading" range.
  • DXY: link here. $91.14. Pretty much unchanged all these months.
  • Silver: link  here. $26.53.
  • CBOE volatility index: link here. 17.66. 

Later, at the close:

  • wow, that "pullback" did not last long; all of two days. All four major indices up nicely at the close.
  • Dow: up 316 points; closes back over 34,000;
  • S&P 500: closed up 38 points; close to the 10:1 rule;
  • NASDAQ: nice participation; up 164 points at the close;
  • WTI: down 2.5%; closed just above $61
  • OKE: up over 3%;
  • MNRL: up almost 2%; nice; 
  • nothing else matters today. LOL. Time to watch the movie. LOL.

Afternoon movie: The Great Gatsby. Watching The Great Gatsby, I was curious what others thought might be the better movie. One opinion here. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$63.09
4/21/202104/21/202004/21/201904/21/201804/21/2017
Active Rigs1630635949

One new permit, #38271:

  • 38271, conf, Whiting, Platt 44-28-2H, Sanish, SESE 28-154-91, 699 FSL 279FEL
    • other wells of interest in the immediate area:
    • 19760, 853, Whiting, Deal 43-28TFH, t3/11; cum 178K 2/21;
    • 18213, 3,308, Whiting, Platt 44-28H, Sanish, t12/09; cum 579K 2/21; a stripper well;
    • 18559, 2,123, Whiting, Platt 43-28H, Sanish, t4/10; cum 442K 2/21;
    • 25322, 1,083, Whiting, Maki 41-33-2XH, Sanish, t9/13; cum 361K 2/21;

Thirteen permits renewed:

  • Hess (6): four LK-Olson permits and two LK-Bice permits, all in Dunn County (LK = Little Knife) -- the assets Hess sold to Enerplus;
  • CLR (3): three Chloe permits in Williams County;
  • Whiting (2): a Olson permit in Williams County and a Helling permit in McKenzie County;
  • NP Resources (2): two Cerkoney permits in Billings County; Tree Top field;
    • 34814: target, Three Forks B1, 1280-acre spacing;
    • 34813: target, Three Forks B1, 1280-acre spacing;
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Coal, The Chinese, And John Kerry -- April 21, 2021

Today's theme: coal. 

Demand: global CO2 emissions (FWIW) are set to jump by 1.5 gigatonnes in 2021 -- led by a rebound in coal demand mainly from the power sector. It would be the second largest rise in emissions ever (FWIW). This economic recovery is anything but sustainable for our climate. Yawn.

  • I picture Greta looking up how to spell gigatonnes in Swedish.

China: Chinese coal consumption to hit record high in 2021. Great news: at tome point the country will transition to natural gas. And, here.

  • John Kerry: the Chinese are doing a great job with efforts to curb CO2 emissions.
  • "I forget which" Kennedy: our grandchildren will never see snow again
  • George Bush I: "no new taxes, read my lips"


Re-posting from yesterday.

Earth Day:
April 20, 2021. Three days of scheduled activities and Dionysian festivals begin today. Will lead off with Greta testifying before Congress. 

And, then, of course, the elephant in the room: coal. 

  • global CO2 emissions are set to jump by 1.5 gigatonnes in 2021 -- led by a reboune in coal demand mainly from the power sector. Link here.
    • India is the big story this week, re: coal. Previously posted. 
      • India says it will use super-dooper ultra-clean critically clean coal to minimize emissions. I can't make this stuff up.
    • this will be the second largest rise in emissions ever -- I guess -- except during the age of dinosaurs
  • by the way, as CO2 levels increase, the effect of warming exponentially falls off -- obscure little factoid; if I find the source again, I will link it -- if I understand it correctly, the theory is that increasing atmospheric CO2 leads to warming, but the rate of increase actually declines as the concentration increases; not unlike a lot of things we see in biology; 
  • the fact that Chinese coal demand is still increasing, rather than having peaked nearly a decade ago, puts into perspective Beijing's climate change challenge (and its 2060 net zero ambition)
    • John Kerry: the Chinese are doing really well when it comes to talking about climate change;
    • oh, by the way, Chinese oil demand continues to increase, also -- link here;

The Anthesteria festival of Dionysus, one of many, like our present day Earth Day celebration, was also three days, but took place a bit earlier, at the end of February. Earth Day activists moved the celebration to a more spring-friendly date so we could enjoy warmer weather in which to celebrate. 

The Greeks were looking forward to a good grape-growing season, and, of course, Earth Day participants are appeasing the climate gods. Or something like that.
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