AstraZeneca's Covid-19 Vaccine Put On Hold -- September 10, 2020

On September 7, 2020, global oil prices started to crash, and on September 8, 2020, the US stock market tanked. I posted a note asking "why" that particular day, why not a week earlier; or a month earlier; or a week later; or a month later? The very day that global oil prices started to crash there was a little story that got very little attention.

On September 9, 2020, after hearing from readers I posted an update, but did not post the "little story" that I had seen the day before, although I alluded to it. From September 9, 2020:

OPEC basket, link here: $40.29. Holy mackerel. Remains in free-fall. This is simply amazing. I haven't seen anything like this in quite some time. By the way, one has to ask the question (again), why now? Why didn't this happen a month ago; a week ago? This (the drop in the price of oil) happened very suddenly beginning September 1, 2020, but accelerated through the third, and snowballing September 7, the day after it seemed to stabilize. There are three direct reasons to explain the timing with a fourth contributing reason:

• traders were waiting to see how the US driving season would end on Labor Day weekend (preliminary numbers now suggest gasoline demand in the US dropped, after initial projections looked good)
• by September 1, 2020, traders realized that all that hype about Hurricane Laura was just that. Hype. Laura went from "unsurvivable" to "no-impact" in less than a day;
• huge setback in fight against Covid came to light on Monday, September 7, 2020 (yet to post); will affect global demand for crude oil going for forward; although I have trouble accepting this as a huge factor, it was another nail in the coffin, as they say (yet to be posted)
  
• contributing to the OPEC basket meltdown:
• those reports of crude oil tankers off China with up to 40 days wait to off load

For the archives: remember, Monday 7, 2020, was Labor Day, a US holiday. Equity markets were closed, but global oil was still trading, and updates were provided by multiple sources including updates on Twitter.

Ask yourself this: what would the price of oil / the equity markets have done on September 8, 2020, had there been an announcement by Dr Faust that a vaccine would be released on September 9, 2020, a vaccine that approached 100% efficacy and safety; and a vaccine that would close the chapter on Covid-19? Unfortunately we did not get that announcement. Instead, on the day oil prices crashed there was a tweet foreshadowing the story. On the day the equity market crashed we got this story, link here.

AstraZeneca was farthest along with the vaccine, and then that headline. The headline was tweeted on Monday, September 7, 2020, mid-afternoon; the story above was published the next day.

But there was something even worse: one adverse reaction in one participant and ... drum roll ... the study is "put on hold." That's all it took. One adverse reaction in one participant and the study is put on hold.

Does anyone really think we think will have a vaccine universally accepted by "all" Americans before November 1, 2020, as some have suggested? The possibility of such a vaccine wasn't driving the market to "frothy" heights -- but all it took was a single adverse reaction in one participant.

And now, as expected, we will get the "spin":

First reading of this suggests to me: if you have an "underlying medical condition," you may not be a candidate for AstraZeneca's vaccine. Again, what demographic needed this vaccine the most?

Whatever. Time to move on.

Whiting Reports A Nice Berg Trust Well In Pembroke Oil Field -- September 10, 2020

Disclaimer: in a long note like this, there will be content and typographical errors; if this is important to you, go to the source.

The well:

• 35329, SI/A, Whiting, Berg Trust 31-27H, Pembroke, t--; cum 129K 7/20;
  

Production:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	7-2020	31	14960	15022	16532	33290	30992	2269
BAKKEN	6-2020	30	19505	19393	15830	34641	34122	479
BAKKEN	5-2020	31	24204	24219	23446	48149	46481	1625
BAKKEN	4-2020	30	35222	35467	35510	71901	49880	21979
BAKKEN	3-2020	22	34819	34409	41996	68114	54192	13880
BAKKEN	2-2020	1	0	0	4067	172	0	171

From the well file:

• spud: July 26, 2019
• surface hole, TD: July 26, 2019
• logging began: July 29, 2019, 1010 hours MDT
• KOP reached: July 29, 2019, 1900 hours MDT; same day; nine hours;
• curve landed: July 30, 2019, 1337 hours; ~ 16.5' into the middle Bakken
• vertical curve, TD: July 30, 2019
• drilled out of the shoe, August 1, 2019, 0310 hours;
• lateral 1, TD: August 3, 2019, 0845 hours; two days;
• target landing: 15' into the middle Bakken;
• gas: upon entering the middle Bakken, average 2,345 units with max of 6,800 units

FracFocus:

• fracked, 2/3/20 - 2/15/20
• 5.8 million gallons of water; 87.1% water by mass

Notes From All Over -- September 10, 2020

Covid and Pemex: more employees have died at Pemex than at any other company in the world -- Bloomberg -- and Mexico's president wants to keep the oil producer pumping, no matter what. How AMLO's crown jewel became the world's deadliest Covid company. Link here.  

Pemex slashes production estimates, previously posted.  

The Mexican Ministry of Finance said it now expected Pemex to produce 1.857 million bpd in 2021, according to a Bloomberg report, down from a projection of 2.027 million bpd made in April this year. Yet, according to at least one analyst, even the revised 2021 average looks too optimistic. Barclays’ chief economist for Latin America, Marco Oviedo, told Bloomberg that Pemex was unlikely to hit that lower target. “It seems that they have not learned,” Oviedo said.

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College Football

College football's biggest fumble: if these numbers and commentaries are correct, there is no question that the decision by the PAC-12 and the Big 10 was a huge fumble. Those athletes are down at the local sports bars -- mostly likely without masks -- watching what could have been.

First: 1000's of cases but zero hospitalizations in colleges -- link here:

Second: is the pandemic over? Link here.

Compare the US experience with that of Sweden: link here.  The graphs look pretty much identical and the US would have done even much better had NY's governor not mandated Covid-positive octogenarians be returned to their nursing homes.

Third: Joe Biden backtracks -- won't sign executive order mandating nationwide masks.

Fourth: Joe Biden backtracks -- won't shutdown the economy.

Fifth: if you don't believe those sources, then this one from The WSJ, link here: Covid-19 cases, death rats are declining six months into the pandemic (pretty much predicted); but stay worried; death toll could more than double by January 1, 2021.

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Running Out Of Fingers And Toes

Updates

January 11, 2021: Lucid looking to go public via a SPAC.

Original Post

EV startup Lucid looks to challenge Tesla with new Air sedan, from The WSJ.

California-based Lucid Motors Inc. revealed a production-ready version of its first model as the battle to dominate the auto industry’s future heats up between Silicon Valley and more-established car companies.  

On Wednesday evening, September 9, 2020, the 13-year-old company showed off its latest iteration of the Lucid Air, a luxury sedan it plans to start selling in early 2021 after years of struggling to raise funding. 

Lucid is among a wave of electric-vehicle startups getting closer to releasing their first models, looking to challenge traditional auto makers like General Motors Co. and Volkswagen AG that are investing billions in the technology and Tesla Inc., a company that continues to dominate the scene for high-price battery-powered cars.

And here: Tesla rival Lucid Motors unveils "Air" EV with 500-mile range. From 0 to 60 in less than three seconds.

Lucid Motors unveiled the design for its first-ever electric sedan, the Lucid Air, on Wednesday, September 9, 2020, setting up a potential future showdown with industry leader Tesla. 

Lucid Motors CEO Peter Rawlinson, a former Tesla engineering executive, unveiled the vehicle at a virtual event from the company’s headquarters in Silicon Valley. 

Touted as the “world’s most powerful and efficient luxury electric sedan,” the Lucid Air can go from zero to 60 miles per hour in less than three seconds, with an estimated range of more than 500 miles per charge. 

“With the Lucid Air, we have created a halo car for the entire industry, one which shows the advancements that are possible by pushing the boundaries of EV technology and performance to new levels,” Rawlinson said in a statement.

What is a halo car? Link here.

A brand’s “halo car” is often the car that brand enthusiasts dream about and drool over. While the car may not have a halo in actuality, it might as well, being the extravagant symbol of a brand’s manufacturing perfection. Halo cars are also typically produced in limited quantities due to the massive resources and precision they require. 

These cars don’t necessarily represent the standard of the brand, but more so the engineering and imagination a brand can exercise. 

When a car like that comes into existence, it’s geared for creating hype, and create hype it does. A “halo car” is a car that goes out of its way to push the technology, styling, and performance a brand can offer.

Nine Wells Coming Off Confidential List; OPEC Basket Continues To Fall -- September 10, 2020

OPEC basket, link here:  $39.82. Breaks below $40.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$37.54	9/10/2020	09/10/2019	09/10/2018	09/10/2017	09/10/2016
Active Rigs	12	64	66	55	37

The twelve rigs today:

• H&P 454, CRL, Morris 12-26H1,
• H&P 492, MRO, Adonijah USA 44-5TFH, 2B, 
• H&P 515, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-11C-2-1HS,
• Nabors B27, WPX, Crosby Chase 2-1HC,
• Nabors B6, BR, Maverick 2D MBH,
• Nabors B21, BR, Cherry ICe Cream 1V TFH,
• Nabors X28, Hess, EN-VP and R-154-94-2536H-13,
• Cylcone 38, CLR, Norway 10-5HSL1
• Cyclone 34, Minnkota Power Coop, J-ROC1 1,
  
• Unit 414, Slawson, Osprey Federal 4-26-29TFH,
• Stoneham 11, K T Enterprises 34-22 SF1,
• T&S Drilling 1, MRO, Larry USA 13-26TFH,

The nine rigs on September 4, 2020:

• H&P 454: CLR, Carson Peak
• N&P 515, Petro-Hunt, USA
• H&P 492, MRO, Adonijah USA
• Nabors B27, WPX, Crosby Chase
• Nabors B21, BR, Cherry Ice Cream
• Nabors X28, Hess, EN-VP And R
• Cyclone 38, CLR, Norway
• Unit 414, Slawson, Osprey Federal
• Stoneham 11, KT Enterprises, KT Enterprises 34-22 SFI, NESE 22-150-96, McKenzie, #37789; 14 miles east of Watford City;

Wells coming off the confidential list --

Thursday, September 10, 2020:

• 36837, conf-->loc, XTO, HBU Muller 31x-12E2, Hofflund,
• 35329, SI/A, Whiting, Berg Trust 31-27H, Pembroke, t--; cum 129K 7/20;

Wednesday, September 9, 2020:

• 36953, drl/NC, WPX, Spotted Wolf 7-6HZ, Eagle Nest, no production data,
• 36836, drl/NC, XTO, HBU Muller 31X-12B, Hofflund, no production data,
• 36114, drl/A,  Hess, Go-Dahl-156-97-2215H-3, Dollar Joe, t--; cum 81K 7/20;
• 35765, drl/NC, Enerplus, Elderberry 149-93-21C-22H, Mandaree, t--; cum 81K 7/20;
• 35764, drl/NC, Enerplus, Fireweed 149-93-21C-22H, Mandaree, t--; cum 56K 7/20;
• 35763, drl/NC, Enerplus, Wisteria 149-93-21C-22H-TF, Mandaree, t--; cum 9K 7/20;
• 35762, drl/NC, Enerplus, Moss 149-93-21C-22H-LL, Mandaree, t--; cum 35K 7/20;

RBN Energy: fall announcement -- RBN's Fall 2020 School of Energy.

Crude Oil -- Surprise Build -- API -- September 9, 2020

API: it's always a surprise. Analysts expected a draw of 1.335 million bbls. In fact, there was a "surprise" build: a build of almost 3 million bbls. We will wait to see what the EIA reports tomorrow. 

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Back To The Bakken 

Active rigs:

$38.05	9/9/2020	09/09/2019	09/09/2018	09/09/2017	09/09/2016
Active Rigs	11	62	66	55	37

No new oil and gas permits.

Two permits renewed:

• EOG: two Burke permits, Mountrail County.