Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Misunderstanding Natural Gas Storage -- September 11, 2019

This was sent to me by a reader. I am posting it for other readers.

I can find 50 articles agreeing with the premise of this article, and 50 articles arguing against the premise of this article.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

For the record, I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken; bullish on oil and gas; and, agree with the premise of the article at the link.

City EV Efforts "Could" Threaten The Grid -- September 11, 2019

From "energynews":


Wow, how many times has this been said on the blog. No one has thought this [EV] story through.

Forget the energy source: coal, natural gas, wind, solar. That's not the problem. We have more energy than we could ever use.

The problem: transmission.

Transmission:
  • electric lines: high voltage, long distance; and "last mile"
  • transformers: lots and lots and lots of them
Fact: it only takes a few (2?) EVs in any typical 14-house neighborhood to require re-vamping the entire neighborhood grid (transformers, transmission lines).

As far back as 2014, even the comic artists "got it":

Gasoline Demand -- September 11, 2019

Gasoline demand: full table. In August, 2017: 302,303 bbls. Over 30 days = 9,752 bpd.

This past month, look at this:


Perhaps a reader will find a data point when the US averaged 10 million bbls of gasoline/day for a week but I haven't found it yet, but I'm still looking. But look how close we got a couple of weeks ago: 9.9 million bpd.

Gasoline production: "we've" hit 10.6 million bpd many times over the past several years, so the next gasoline production will be 11 million bpd, which should happen sooner than later.

The big question: will we hit 10 million bpd demand before the year is out?

"Recession Is Right Around The Corner" -- September 11, 2019

US equity market surges.
  • Dow up almost 230 points; closes above 27,000 (again).
  • S & P hits 3,000 (again).
  • Nasdaq extends above 8,150.
But, but, but ....
  • Bernie: resist!
  • Buttigieg: change course!
  • Beto: re-set!
  • Biden: what just happened? We need to get back to "normal."
One can't have it both ways:
  • rule of thumb: stock market "looks out" about six months
  • with the market surging as it is now, it's hard to buy into an argument "we" are facing a recession between now and March, 2019 -- though we will hear a lot about "October" is the worse month for the stock market
  • March, 2020. Eight months until the election. You really think Trump/GOP will let economy move into recession? Sure, it could happen.
  • Russia, Russia, Russia. Then, recession, recession, recession. Next: 
Futures, 8:38 p.m. CT, September 11, 2019: Dow up another 149 points. XLNX moving in pre-market.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, career, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Gasoline demand weekly data pending.

US Supreme Court sides with President Trump. Only two dissents: RBG and Sotomayor.

Wow, what a day.

Equities:
  • AAPL: up almost $7/share by the close; up another $1.30 after hours; after hours, trading at $225
  • EW: unchanged at $218
  • SRE: up 1% to $143, near 52-week high
  • OKE: at $74; within pennies of a 52-week high
  • T: an old stodgy widow's stock up 3% today 
  • AMGN: after surging this past week, drops back below $200
  • UNP: well off its 52-week high but showing strength

Nine Point Energy Reports Little Muddy Wells In Williston Oil Field -- September 11, 2019

Wow, for "mom-and-pop" mineral owners, the Bakken wells just seem to be getting better and better.

Now, the Nine Point Energy Little Muddy wells in Williston oil field are being reported:
  • 35985, 1,69, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 6H, Williston, t6/19; cum 51K over 61 days;
  • 35986, 1,158, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 7H, Williston, t6/19; cum 48K over 58 days;
  • 35987, 696, Nine Point Energy, Little Muddy 8H, Williston, t6/19; cum 31K over 31 days;
Huge wells.