Friday, February 2, 2018

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #56 -- February 2, 2018

Updates

February 4, 2018: and, yes as predicted. South Australia awards Tesla with the contract to save their grid. From Bloomberg:
South Australia plans to roll out solar panels and Tesla Inc. batteries to at least 50,000 homes to form what its government says will be the world’s largest virtual power plant. 
If you encounter a paywall, the story is also at The Guardian:
The South Australian premier said a trial was already under way to install solar panels and Tesla batteries on 1,100 Housing Trust homes. The cost would be financed by the sale of electricity. The power generated by the solar panels and the batteries would not be owned directly by the households.
The program would later be rolled out to another 24,000 public housing properties and also offered to other households with a view to having at least 50,000 Adelaide homes connected.
Not even gonna comment.
Original Post
 
I have long forgotten the origin of this story. It began at least a year or so ago. Maybe longer. I've long forgotten.

One reader from Australia alerted me to the pending implosion of the electric grid in south Australia. a year or so ago. Another reader, closer to home, alerted me to JoanneNova.com.

To make a long story short, to save the world from global warming, Australia decided some years ago -- and very recently in the big scheme of things -- to move electricity generation from coal to wind.

Coal in Australia is very, very cheap. Wind is free.

At least that's what we're told.

On January 18, 2018, spot price for electricity South Australia and environs went as high as ... hold on to your hat ... $14,000 / MWh (no typo).

When I started watching what I call "ISO Australia" (its actual name is AMEC: the Australian Energy Market Commission) I never knew where the story would go. I was simply fascinated by how the Australian grid seemed to be falling apart.

The commission set the bar low: as long as the grid held -- no brownouts or blackouts -- regardless how much it might cost the ratepayer -- the commission declared success: they were saving the world from global warming and Australians were adapting to $14,000/MWh electricity.

Well ... as noted, when I first started following "ISO Australia" I had no idea where it was going. Tonight I found out.

A reader sent me this: AEMC wants input on how to save Australia's electricity grid -- due Monday, February 6th.

As the reader noted, the commission is desperate; the commission needs help and they need it fast. Their phones must be ringing off their hooks (as we used to say).

A scary word in that sentence: "save."

The scariest words in that sentence: "by Monday February 6th."

Let's see -- it's Friday, here, February 2nd. That would make Monday, February 5th.

February 6th would be a Tuesday. Maybe AEMC, along with saving the world from global warming, uses a different calendar ... or maybe it has something to do with the International Date Line. I don't know.

But I digress. [Something tells me I'm on thin ice here; maybe Monday really is February 6th in Australia. Check Australian calendar.]

But the AEMA needs help; and they need help now. To save the grid.

They'll worry about saving the world later.

By the way, if you take time to read the story at the link, be sure to read the comments. The commission is already getting advice.

The big question is whether Elon Musk has time to save the Australian electricity grid. 

Update On Massachusetts' Plan To Bring Hydro-Electricity In From Canada -- February 2, 2018

The continuing balkanization of America.

See this note from January 28, 2018, for background. 

From Worcester Business Journal:
A permit that the Northern Pass project had been counting on was denied by New Hampshire site evaluators on Thursday, jeopardizing the Bay State's newly minted plan to transmit hydropower from Quebec to Massachusetts.
The New Hampshire Site Evaluation Committee's (SEC) unanimous vote occurred a week after Massachusetts officials and utilities selected the project – a joint effort of Eversource and Hydro-Quebec to run transmission through the White Mountains – after a major renewable energy procurement.
My thoughts, not ready for prime time, when a reader sent me that note:
Some years ago I suggested (to myself) that we were seeing the Balkanization of the US.

Balkanize: divide (a region or body) into smaller mutually hostile states or groups.

I don't recall what was happening then that made me think of the balkanization of the US but it certainly seems that is what we are seeing here. I thought the balkanization of America would end at the regional level (south vs north; west vs east; west vs midwest; etc) but now we are seeing it intra-regionally: states with similar values and background are unable to come together to help each other out. 

It seems Massachusetts could find some help from the federal government but because the "trade" is coming from Canada, maybe there is no case of "restraint of interstate trade."
The New Hampshire vote appeared not to be close. 

Atmospheric CO2 -- FWIW -- February, 2018

Scripps data:


Previously:
  • December, 2017 (last month): 407.01
  • May, 2017 (seasonal variation noted): 409.65
  • February, 2017: (one year ago): 406.42
    • Delta over one year: 1.3 ppm 
    • 1.3 / 1 million =  0.0000013
    • neither reproducible, nor statistically significant

Except For One Or Two Laggards, All EV Manufacturers Have Reported For January, 2018

Link here.

The most striking data point: the year-over-year change in sales/deliveries.  

One year ago, January, 2017, a total of 11,004 EVs were sold/delivered.

For January, 2018: 11,906.

That is an 8% jump in sales, year-over-year, so that is impressive, but in absolute numbers, both months below 12,000. Tesla had said that by this time it would be delivering 5,000 units of its Model 3. 

The other striking data point: how far the Nissan Leaf has fallen in sales, from #5 (last year) to #19 (this year). It would help if Insideevs would put asterisks on models that are being phased out. That would explain drop in some sales. 

Two New Permits, Not Much Else -- February 2, 2018

Active rigs:

$65.062/2/201802/02/201702/02/201602/02/201502/02/2014
Active Rigs574044145192

Two new permits: pending
  • Operator: MRO
    Field: Killdeer (Dunn County)
    Comments:
One permit canceled: a Lime Rock Dora permit in Mountrail County

Nine permits renewed:
  • CLR (6): six Sorenson permits in Mountrail County
  • Kaiser-Francis Oil (2): an Albert permit and an Agnes permit, both in Stark County
  • Sinclair: a Highland permit in Mountrail County
No producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed.

And that was all.