XTO WIth Six More Siverston Permits -- December 8, 2017

Active rigs:

$57.34↑	12/8/2017	12/08/2016	12/08/2015	12/08/2014	12/08/2013
Active Rigs	53	40	65	191	193

Six new permits:

• Operator: XTO
• Field: Siverston
• Comments:

One permit renewed:

• Resource Energy: one Mathilda permit in Divide County.

No permits cancelled.

No producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed.

And that was it. Have a great weekend.

China Sets Second-Highest Record For Crude Oil Imports; US Hits Record For Amount Of Oil Exported To China -- December 8, 2017

It might be my imagination but it certainly seems the fossil fuel energy story has moved faster in the past six months than expected.

Now we get this story -- big "thank you" to Don for alerting me to the story.

From CNBC:

• China crude oil imports for November: second-highest on record
• China crude oil imports from the US in November: highest amount on record
• driving the record for US crude exports to China: WTI discount to Brent -- currently about $6/bbl

Rule of thumb: a $7 spread (advantage to WTI) almost guarantees WTI will outsell Brent to Asia, all else being equal. If the spread is less, depends on a number of factors how much US crude oil China will import. The greater the spread over $7 the more likely that data point will be the single data point necessary for China to buy US oil.

"Mr Berman, Meet Mr CVX. Mr CVX, Meet Mr Berman. -- December 8, 2017

From August 11, 2017:

This is Art Berman suggesting that data in December, 2016, suggested that we were seeing the "beginning of the end" for the Bakken. The article begins:

It’s the beginning of the end for the Bakken Shale play.

The decline in Bakken oil production that started in January 2015 is probably not reversible. New well performance has deteriorated, gas-oil ratios have increased and water cuts are rising. Much of the reservoir energy from gas expansion is depleted and decline rates should accelerate. More drilling may increase daily output for awhile but won’t resolve the underlying problem of poorer well performance and declining per-well reserves.

December 2016 production fell 92,000 barrels per day (b/d)–a whopping 9% single-month drop. Over the past two years, output has fallen 285,000 b/d (23%). This was despite an increase in the number of producing wells that reached an all-time high of 13,520 in November. That number fell by 183 wells in December.

Source: NDIC.

From November 30, 2017:

"Shale is not a revolution -- it's a retirement party. Shale plays were not some great new idea. They became important only as more attractive plays were exhausted." -- Art Berman.

Re-posting: where will ChevronTexaco deploy its CAPEX in 2018?

In particular, Chevron is concentrating on increasing its investment in shale as it strives to boost its U.S. shale production next year. For 2018, the company intends to spend $4.3 billion in shale – up 70% year over year – the lion's share (or $3.3 billion) going to the lucrative Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico alone.

The remaining $1 billion has been set aside for other shale investments.

Goodnight Moon, Shivaree

The Political Page? T+321 -- For The Archives -- December 8, 2017

Mideast. ISIS fell faster than even the US military imagined once President Trump came into office and turned the "war" over to the military. Another story we won't see in mainstream media.

Jerusalem. Meanwhile, terrorist organizations across the Mideast tell us that President Trump's decision to recognize undivided Jerusalem as the capital of Israel will derail the Mideast peace initiative. LOL. How long has there been a peace initiative going on in the Mideast? How many presidents have simply kicked this can down the road? Maybe bold action by this president will convince the terrorist organizations they may want to negotiate or risk seeing more unilateral action. It should be noted that President Trump did not do this overnight. He signed the "usual waiver" the first time he was presented with the decision to make; he took more than a year to finally make the decision. That's not a knee-jerk reaction.

Guns. What's wrong with this picture? Under President Obama handgun sales surged. Under President Trump shares of Smith and Wesson have "plunged after massive gun sales decline." See American Outdoors Brand (AOBC).

Bitcoin: someone asked me the other day, "my thoughts on Bitcoin." I said I had no thoughts on Bitcoin. That was true then. But then Bitcoin raced from a few thousand dollars to $18,000 seemingly overnight, I took notice. There's really only one way for that to happen (with any commodity): someone is trying to "corner" the Bitcoin market. Someone is willing to pay whatever price is required to buy more Bitcoin. (This reminds me of the Hunt brothers and silver some decades ago.) Now, who in the world would have that kind of cash to corner the Bitcoin market, and who would also have a motive to do so? Maybe someone who can afford to buy a painting for half-a-billion dollars.

Prince Salman: buys a $450 million painting which may or may not be a Da Vinci to give as a gift to the U.A.E. (Abu Dhabi's new Louvre museum).

This Stuff Is So Easy To Miss -- Thank Goodness For Twitter -- December 8, 2017

From Argue Media today: the United States under Trump suspends federal flaring restrictions until 2019. Wow. So many story lines, but right now, the data points:

• the rule would have required oil and gas producers on federal land to limit flaring and methane leaks starting a month from now (specifically, January 17, 2018)
• the US BLM said it was delaying compliance -- stating the rule would create a particular burden to marginal wells and threaten their economic viability

This following is true. We saw this phenomenon during the Bakken boom:

US producers sometimes flare natural gas so they can maximize production of more valuable oil, particularly in booming shale areas where gathering pipelines either do not exist or at full capacity.

Producers also sometimes lose natural gas directly into the atmosphere if they lack leak detection programs or install high-emission equipment.

It seems that some states, like North Dakota, have a pretty good handle on this.

The BLM was not only concerned about the economic viability of marginal wells, but like so many Obama-era rules, it was thought by the BLM that this rule would not "stand up to judicial review."

After that, a lot of global warming nonsense, as if one can monetize CO2 emissions affect on global warming. Especially since there is no correlation.