More Information Needed....

Unfortunately the story is incomplete; we don't have enough information, but ...

First the story: Bowman County commissioners are asking residents for a 12% increase in taxes. Inflation is coming, but for the past year or so, and projecting into the next or so, the Fed says there has been no inflation, and the Fed does not see inflation as being a problem in the near term going forward.

So, Bowman County residents are right to ask, 12%? Why?

The spotty answer in the linked article:

Commissioner Lynn Brackel said the county's hands are tied on several "mandated" increases and singled out rising costs for social services for residents, and retirement and health insurance tabs for county employees.

Note what was not included in the reason for the request for an increase in taxes: a) impact of the economic activity (i.e., oil); b) routine county responsibilities such as roads, snow removal, emergency services; and, c) inflation.

The answer: "mandates." Our hands are tied.

Note: based on the article, it sounds like this 12% increase does not include the increases the school district is expected to request.

My hunch is these "mandated" increases are trickle-down mandates from the Federal government. The Federal government has a habit of extending well-meaning programs and kick-starting them with Federal money for the first two or three years, but after that, local government is responsible. And so there "we" are --

We've been reading about these problems in other states. They are now coming home to roost, to steal a phrase.

It would be interesting to see the breakdown of the "mandated" programs. Before the November election.

Well, This Is Interesting...from the LA Times, No Less

Updates

November 24, 2012: exhibit #1 why global warmers are bull of "BS" -- a timeline of man and global warming. They start with Aristotle in 300BC and jump to 1896, conveniently forgetting the global warming period in 1500, documented by the Vikings; but most interesting: the timeline notes that the Kyoto Protocol was signed in 1997 but then conveniently neglects to mention that Canada withdrew from the protocol in 2011. The timeline authors spin the story of the 2011 conference which fell apart in disagreement; the best they could do was agree that they would re-convene in 2015 and negotiate a new accord applicable to all. Countries like West Germany were no longer interested in giving China a pass. The US has never signed the Kyoto Protocol.

But starting with Aristotle's observation of local weather phenomena....will it ever end, the BS? The timeline did not include a link to a video of a starving polar bear.

Original Post

Link to LA Times story here.

Centuries before the Industrial Revolution or the recognition of global warming, the ancient Roman and Chinese empires were already producing powerful greenhouse gases through their daily toil, according to a new study.

The burning of plant matter to cook food, clear cropland and process metals released millions of tons of methane gas into the atmosphere each year during several periods of pre-industrial history, according to the study, published Thursday in the journal Nature.  

Although the quantity of methane produced back then pales in comparison with the emissions released today — the total amount is roughly 70 times greater now — the findings suggest that man's footprint on the climate is larger than previously realized. Until now, it was assumed by scientists that human activity began increasing greenhouse gas levels only after the year 1750.

Now, about that pesky little problem of the Medieval Warm Period, 800 - 1300 AD, when the Vikings were visiting Greenland.

That Was Short-Lived -- QE3 -- So, What's Next?

Updates

October 4, 2012: mortgage rate hits record low -- 3.36 percent. 

Original Post

Update: Fed Easing Has Little Impact So Far -- Out of Bullets? Prior to QE3, I posted that I was hoping the Fed would announce QE3: I was curious if the Fed had any more arrows in its quiver. 

Apparently not.

The Federal Reserve's latest easing program may be nicknamed "QE Infinity" on Wall Street, but it's having a very limited effect on the markets and economy so far. 

Stocks have been flat to slightly lower since the central bank announced the third round of its quantitative easing program — QE3 — while economists remain pessimistic that it will achieve its stated goal of bringing down the unemployment rate. Consequently, sentiment is beginning to build that the Fed may be running out of bullets. 

Sentiment is building for some. For others it's already a fact: the Fed has run out of bullets. 

Original Post On September 24, 2012, MDW wrote:

Is QE3 Already a Failure? 

Riding a bike gives one a lot of time to think. Seeing the market swoon again today, and the price of oil drop again, suggests to me, at least, that QE3, announced just a week or so ago, is already a failure. When it was announced, I thought as much. I have no idea what the expectations were, and don't even know if I have the whole story, but apparently the Fed is just buying more mortgage-backed securities. With mortgages already about as low as they can go, and folks still not buying, suggests that mortgages are not the issue. So, I'm probably all confused on that, and my reasoning is probably all wrong, but the bottom line for me is that there was nothing in QE3 that excited me. And today, while riding around Belmont (a suburb of Boston), I simply thought that QE3 is already a failure.

So, tonight, looking at today's business news, that's the Yahoo!Finance headline: if QE3 doesn't do what it's supposed to, the Federal Reserve is ready to step in and buy other assets (with money it doesn't have):

The Federal Reserve could expand its stimulus package to include assets other than mortgage-backed securities if the U.S. economy fails to respond to its latest effort to jump-start the economy. 

The article says the Fed is limited by what it can buy, but those boundaries are not written in stone; they can be modified.

I'm hoping they considering buying "stuff" that makes it easier for me to finance the following: a) a new Honda Civic; b) a new Apple MacAir; and, c) a new, high-end bicycle. I wonder if there's a way they could throw in a pre-paid Starbucks card for military vets?

You Can Now Pay For Your Starbucks Coffee With An iPhone App

Click here for the story.

Starbucks has added Passbook support to its iPhone app [App Store], as perhaps the highest profile app to embrace the feature. Starbucks customers can use its app to store gift cards and use QR codes on the phone to quickly pay for food and drinks without needing cash or credit cards. Additionally, the company keeps track of purchases for its rewards program.

This story would have held little interest for me (I don't have/own/use a SmartPhone), except for the fact the person ahead of me in Starbucks this morning paid for her coffee by having the cashier scan her QR code from her iPhone.

We all have our crosses to bear. For me, it's a hassle getting my billfold out of my backpack to find my Starbucks card.

For those at the Bakken Shale Discussion Board, it's a hassle depositing royalty checks in excess of $10,000. At the link scroll down to the fourth comment dated 11/30/11. See also this story posted earlier this evening. [You know, instead of a 371-foot pyramidal housing scheme on the prairie, these developers might consider chartering a bank in the same location that would take oil money checks with no questions asked, and no holding periods. Just a thought.]

[I carry my billfold in my backpack when biking. I bike to minimize my carbon footprint. I can hardly wait until the Boston winter.]

[I understand it may be best to NOT use the iPhone Maps app to find the nearest Starbucks.]

Random Update on Hauge 1-01H, #16965

Elsewhere, someone wanted an update on the following well:

• 16965, 1,109, EOG, Hauge 1-01H, Parshall, t6/09; cum 383K 8/12;

The information is available at the NDIC website, but this level of information requires a yearly subscription ($50) which is totally worth it.

This is monthly data: the fourth column is oil production (bbls); the fifth column is oil sold (bbls); the sixth column is water (bbls); the last three columns have to do with natural gas -- mcf produced, mcf sold, mcf flared.

Notice how very little water this well is producing (good).

Notice how the production has stabilized at about 5,000 bbls/month; this well is paid for, by the way (very good).

Notice how there has been minimal flaring after the first year (good). 

BAKKEN	8-2012	31	5318	5508	54	3355	3200	0
BAKKEN	7-2012	31	5455	5255	52	3304	2871	279
BAKKEN	6-2012	30	5391	5398	47	3175	2993	33
BAKKEN	5-2012	31	5686	5693	59	3494	3339	0
BAKKEN	4-2012	30	5664	5677	50	3547	3397	0
BAKKEN	3-2012	31	6023	6020	56	3326	3171	0
BAKKEN	2-2012	29	5681	5887	168	2993	2848	0
BAKKEN	1-2012	31	6294	6091	58	3413	3258	0
BAKKEN	12-2011	31	6438	6431	76	3555	3400	0
BAKKEN	11-2011	30	6287	6277	78	3635	3485	0
BAKKEN	10-2011	31	6858	6868	56	3983	3448	380
BAKKEN	9-2011	30	6786	6773	56	3867	2143	1574
BAKKEN	8-2011	31	7346	7359	70	4197	1917	2125
BAKKEN	7-2011	31	7479	7492	77	4136	3965	16
BAKKEN	6-2011	30	7606	7593	80	3998	3656	198
BAKKEN	5-2011	31	7923	7913	173	4068	3759	162
BAKKEN	4-2011	30	7694	7819	73	4024	3717	162
BAKKEN	3-2011	31	8955	9030	99	4594	4439	0
BAKKEN	2-2011	28	7809	7712	82	3766	3626	0
BAKKEN	1-2011	31	9441	9421	100	4508	4354	0
BAKKEN	12-2010	31	10127	10054	118	4969	4814	0
BAKKEN	11-2010	30	10481	10571	150	5109	4959	0
BAKKEN	10-2010	31	11809	11836	239	5670	5476	39
BAKKEN	9-2010	29	11529	11359	368	5053	4809	108
BAKKEN	8-2010	30	8877	8887	249	4344	3860	338
BAKKEN	7-2010	10	2785	2927	293	1369	0	1325
BAKKEN	6-2010	25	10194	10495	141	4910	4640	145
BAKKEN	5-2010	31	13780	13380	193	6629	5490	984
BAKKEN	4-2010	30	15138	15125	210	6866	6622	94
BAKKEN	3-2010	31	18218	18258	398	8442	8063	225
BAKKEN	2-2010	28	17102	17128	324	7537	7143	254
BAKKEN	1-2010	29	12612	12512	410	5965	5592	230
BAKKEN	12-2009	23	10031	10151	842	4545	4184	256
BAKKEN	11-2009	30	12550	12547	184	5750	5600	0
BAKKEN	10-2009	31	15226	15159	250	6344	5959	230
BAKKEN	9-2009	30	17336	17410	348	7104	6882	72
BAKKEN	8-2009	31	19567	19741	476	6777	6372	250
BAKKEN	7-2009	29	20786	21207	1059	6952	5591	1216
BAKKEN	6-2009	8	8395	7486	3352	3601	2844	718