Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Polar Bears -- Absolutely Nothing To Do With The Bakken

Data points from The Globe and Mail via Carpe Diem.
  • polar bear counts 66 percent higher than expected, maybe more
  • population: 1,013
  • global warming researches predicted numbers as low as 610 due to melting ice, yada, yada, yada
  • the government did a count because hunters kept reporting more bears than expected
  • reminder: Canada jettisoned the Kyoto Protocol earlier this year
'Nuf said.

Another Scam In The Oil Patch?

Updates

April 12, 2012: I cannot post some comments regarding possible scams in the Bakken.

Original Post
Verbatim, as sent to me:
Just to inform you of a new scam that you could pass on.

We have been contacted by two different land people this week. The offer they have is to buy your royalty on your acres for 30 years. They claim no taxes (capital gains) which is not true. They just want acreage with one (1) well after decline. They request to see your royalty payment to make their bid. I hope they are not successful at this because as you know there will be many more. I also fear that the wording will take unsuspecting people's minerals forever.
I did not get any additional information.

North Dakota Oil Production Hits a New All-Time High (Again)

Link here.
  • Feb, 2012, oil: 558,254 bopd  (NEW all-time high)
  • Jan, 2012, oil: 546,453
  • Feb, 2012, producing wells: 6,726 (NEW all-time high)
  • Jan, 2012, producing wells: 6,624

Back-of-the-envelope nonsense:
  • 558,254 bbls per day x $83/bbl --> $50 million/day (rounded) into the economy.
  • An additional 12,000 bbls x $83 -->  $1 million at 12% --> an additional $120,000/day for the state? (rounded)

    Director's Cut: April 11, 2012

    Link here.

    Production hits all-time high in North Dakota (again):


    • Feb, 2012, oil: 558,254 bopd  (NEW all-time high)
    • Jan, 2012, oil: 546,453
    • Feb, 2012, producing wells: 6,726 (NEW all-time high)
    • Jan, 2012, producing wells: 6,624
    Permitting
    • Feb, 2012: 181 (all time high: 245, 2 Nov 10)
    • Jan, 2012: 170
    Pricing
    • Feb, 2012: sweet crude, $83.26
    • Jan, 2012: sweet crude, $88.09
    • Dec, 2011: sweet crude, $88.75
    • Nov, 2011: sweet crude, $88.54
    Director's comments:
    The warm dry weather continues to result in increased hydraulic fracturing activity and increased production.....the idle well count is falling with just under 240 wells now waiting for fracturing services. [Last month it was 250 wells; not falling very fast.]

    Crude oil take away capacity via pipeline is well below production, but rail and truck transportation combined are keeping up with near term production projections.
    EPA
    "EPA regulation of hydraulic fracturing under the safe drinking water act through the diesel fuel provision in the 2005 energy policy act remains on hold with the proposed guidance document(s) still under review at OMB. Following that review a 60-day public comment period is planned.

    US Budget Deficit Widened To Almost $200 Billion In March -- Bakken-Related?

    Link here to Bloomberg.

    The larger deficit is pretty much in line with analysts' expectations:
    The U.S. government’s budget deficit widened 5.3 percent in March, as outlays increased on recurring benefit payments and a subsidy re-estimate for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP).

    The shortfall expanded to $198.2 billion from $188.2 billion a year earlier, the Treasury Department said today. Economists projected a $196 billion gap, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. 
    Bakken-related? There are many who feel that the deficit --> debt will eventually lead to commodity inflation, thus increasing the royalty checks for Bakken mineral owners.