Tuesday, October 28, 2025

News: Part 4 -- US Markets -- October 28, 2025

Locator: 49264NEWS. 

Beth: link here.  


Most surprising
:

  • UPS up 12% in pre-market trading today.

New meme:

  • jobs are already starting to go away due to AI. 
  • AI will play major role in all aspects of package delivery (AMZN, UPS) 

Driving the market:

  • this week, the market will be driven by --
    • 90% tech; 10% Fed
  • next week, the market will be driven by --
    • 10% tech; 90% Fed 
  • two weeks from now, the market will be driven by --
    • the government: closed or open

Polymarket: what does polymarket have to say on length of government shutdown? Past 35 days is a sure bet at this point --


Futures
: looks like we may get an indication of how investors really feel going into November --

  • a lot of high-flying tech stocks are going to drop significantly today ("profit-taking")
  • a lot of stories on BRK-B
  • Dow, pre-market: up big, right now, up 240 points, but --
  • NASDAQ, pre-market: could go negative, but up 60 points right now 
  • S&P 500: up 11 points, pre-market

Tylenol: if Tylenol maker falls today -- Texas sues Tylenol maker for high autism risks.

  • manufacturer: Kenvue -- spinoff of JNJ (talcum powder)
  • Kenvue (KVUE) down 35% over past six months
  • pre-market: flat 

GLW:

  • great earnings reort but not enough to justify a P/E of 95

Lithium:

  • long, long CNBC interview with Arkansas governor
  • bigger story here 
  • who's the governor?  

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
  • All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • And Oracle. 
  • Longer version here.  

News: Part 3 -- Shutdown Update -- October 28, 2025

Locator: 49263NEWS. 

Current shutdown, 2025: 

  • today: 28th day
  • 35th day -- next Tuesday, November 4, 2025
  • US Senate scheduled to be out of town for nine days, starting Friday evening, November 7, 2025
  • then again, another nine days, starting Friday evening November 21, 2025, Thanksgiving break 
Biggest impact for many folks: airlines
  • traffic controllers not paid:
  • American Airlines delays: 36% of take-offs -- 36%; 
    • the Dems said shutdown would last until planes start falling out of the sky;
  • largest US union tells Dems to open government with "clear" continuing resolution --
    • has always been the solution; for some reason it's different this time
    • "for some reason" -- AOC, Bernie 
    • Senator Schumer enduring scathing attacks after he folded last time
    • which Dems will show "adulting" behavior next week?
  • longest US government shutdown was 35 days, over the holidays, 2018- 2019
  • current shutdown, 2025
    • today: 28th day
    • 35th day -- next Tuesday, November 4, 2025
    • US Senate scheduled to be out of town for nine days, starting Friday evening, November 7, 2025
    • then again, another nine days, starting Friday evening November 21, 2025, Thanksgiving break 

News: Part 2 -- GLW Plummets -- October 28, 2025

Locator: 49262NEWS. 


Beats. Link here (pay wall). Link here.

  • core sales grew 14% y/y
  • EPS grew 24%
  • operating. margin expands 130 basis points
  • Optical Communications' Enterprise (AI) sales grew 58% y/y
  • Springboard: strong guidance

Beats: yes, but nothing to write home about. 


**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 
  • All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Many posts are not proofread for several days after they've been posted.  
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • And Oracle. 
  • Longer version here.  

News: Part 1 -- October 28, 2025

Locator: 49261NEWS. 

Another huge day for news.

Let's start with this: B-1 bombers out of Grand Forks AFB now making regular runs along the coast of Venezuela.

That's interesting.

Other news we may or may not get to:

  • traffic controllers not paid:
    • American Airlines delays: 36% of take-offs -- 36%; the Dems said shutdown would last until planes start falling out of the sky;
    • largest US union tells Dems to open government with "clear" continuing resolution --
      • has always been the solution; for some reason it's different this time
      • "for some reason" -- AOC, Bernie 
  • Texas banking: hotbed of M&A; who would have thought?
  • Buffett: the emperor wears no clothes: others are now saying that 
  • Amazon slashing jobs: reasons not clear; reports later this week;
  • China delays export action on rare earths; early reports suggest a year-long reprieve
  • SOFI beats on earnings
  • tech earnings season starts in earnest: first up -- GLW 

 *********************************
B-1 Bombers

Link here. Be sure to read the thread.

**************************
Naval Presence In Caribbean

Link here

  • swan song? for Admiral Alvin Holsey; wiki
    • usual tenure: two to four years?
    • Holsey may get a full year in before he retires
    • previous assignment: Holsey was commander of the Navy Personnel Command and Deputy Chief of Naval Personnel from 2021 to 2022.  
    • took command November 7, 2024 
    • US presidential election, November 5, 2024
    • was he nominated by the autopen? 
  • USS Lake Erie (CG-70) joins armada
    • guided missile cruiser; wiki
  • at least eight ships in the carrier group, could increase
  • in the old days, we called these training exercises
    • in the old days, Russia would respond
  • it's being suggested 14% of entire US naval assets now in the Caribbean
  • USS Gerald Ford carrier
  • there's probably a bigger story here than just Venezuela
    • Panama-China watching with interest

Speaking of autopens: US House "voids" autopenned documents -- I have no idea what that means;

  • my hunch: allows President Trump leeway in interpreting actions signed with autopen
  • probably nothing, however -- politics as usual

Taco Tuesday -- October 28, 2025

Locator: 49260B. 

Another huge day for news.

Let's start with this: B-1 bombers out of Grand Forks AFB now making regular runs along the coast of Venezuela.

That's interesting.

Other news we may or may not get to:

  • traffic controllers not paid:
    • American Airlines delays: 36% of take-offs -- 36%; the Dems said shutdown would last until planes start falling out of the sky;
    • largest US union tells Dems to open government with "clear" continuing resolution --
      • has always been the solution; for some reason it's different this time
      • "for some reason" -- AOC, Bernie 
    • longest US government shutdown was 35 days, over the holidays, 2018- 2019
    • current shutdown, 2025
      • today: 28th day
      • 35th day -- next Tuesday, November 4, 2025
      • US Senate scheduled to be out of town for nine days, starting Friday evening, November 7, 2025
      • then again, another nine days, starting Friday evening November 21, 2025, Thanksgiving break 
  • Texas banking: hotbed of M&A; who would have thought?
  • Buffett: the emperor wears no clothes: others are now saying that 
  • Amazon slashing jobs: reasons not clear; reports later this week;
  • China delays export action on rare earths; early reports suggest a year-long reprieve
  • SOFI beats on earnings
  • tech earnings season starts in earnest: first up -- GLW 

********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $60.41. Link here.

New wells: link here

RBN Energy: link here