Sunday, August 18, 2024

The Book Page -- August 18, 2024

Locator: 48453BOOKS.

New books on the shelf in the past 48 hours or so:

  • A Plausible Man: The True Story of the Escaped Slave Who Inspired Uncle Tom's Cabin, Susanna Ashton, c. 2024. Clemson University. Fascinating. Really, really good.
  • The American History: Conversations With Master Historians, David M. Rubenstein, c. 2019. This is going to be a really, really good read. 
  • Tin to Table: Fancy, Snacky Recipes For Tin-Thusiasts And A-Fish-Ionados, Anna Hezel, c. 2023. A gimmicky book; will look nice on the recipe shelf, but that's about it.
  • Art and War in the Renaissance: The Battle of Pavia Tapestries, editor, Carmine Romano, c. 2024, catalogue, coffee-table book to accompany the first-ever showing of the seven tapestries all at one time except for their permanent home in Italy; currently showing at Kimbell Art Museum, Ft Worth, TX. Really, really nice addition to our coffee-table art books.

Current list of books for my summer-reading program, 2024: link here.

Presidential Politics: Choosing To Lose -- August 18, 2024

Locator: 48452HARRIS.

Did Benzinga change somewhere along the line? Maybe I simply missed it, but Benzinga seems to have really upped their game. I'm impressed except for all the ads. Seems like a clickbait site, and like the CNBC site, more and more stories require a subscription of some sort. Whatever.

From Benzinga on the presidential campaign trail:

"... will be a terrible president." Freudian? Should it have been "... would be a terrible president, and that's not gonna happen." But "... will be a terrible president"?

The New York Times has a great piece on Kamala's run for attorney general for California. It's a great article, but the author really, really missed the biggest takeaway from that article. See if you can spot it.

From the linked article: 

It was 2010 — the pinnacle of the Tea Party’s power — and Ms. Harris, running statewide for the first time, was struggling to shed the same San Francisco liberal label that Donald J. Trump is wielding as an epithet yet again.

Ms. Harris, then 45, was already seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party. “The female Barack Obama,” Gwen Ifill had memorably tagged her the year before. But plenty of rising stars are snuffed out early, and Ms. Harris was facing a formidable Republican foe in Steve Cooley, the popular and moderate district attorney of Los Angeles County.

Mr. Cooley’s reputation as an evenhanded, corruption-busting prosecutor had put him tied or narrowly ahead of Ms. Harris entering October — largely on the strength of his distinctive popularity for a Republican in Los Angeles. He had won election three times in what is the state’s most populous Democratic stronghold.

Ms. Harris was running out of both time and money when she arrived at their only debate on the first Monday of October. Then, about 45 minutes into the hourlong clash, Mr. Cooley gave an answer that was frank, fateful and foolish.

By the way, speaking of Kamala Harris. Has Kamala Harris really proposed any new initiatives that:

  • Trump himself hasn't already proposed;
  • that the Biden administration was already doing, or planning to do;
  • that would really increase any federal spending like ObamaCare or the Covid stimulus acts;
  • that would really negatively effect the average voter?

It's hard to pin the "socialist" tail on this donkey, more than any other democrat, except perhaps JFK and Bill Clinton.

On that continuum, Harris seems more to the right of Obama, but obviously left of JFK and Bill Clinton.

The border? Apparently it's pretty much under control right now (don't take that out of context; it's all relative).

*******************************
More Politics

The politics of this story interests me not. I was more curious to learn about Miriam Adelson's business interests than her politics. 

Adelson:

  • is a (real) physician (unlike "Doctor Jill")
    • born in Tel Avia, Mandatory Palestine, 1945, to parents who fled Poland before the Holocaust
    • father owned several movie theaters in Haifa; a prominent member of a left-wing political party
    • served mandatory army service as a medical officer
    • medical degree, magna cum laude, Tel Aviv .... Medicine
    • chief internist in an emergency room in Tel Avia
    • Rockerfeller University in 1986; specialized in drug addiction
    • instrumental in the methadone therapy movement for heroin addiction
    • has publisher numerous scientific papers on topic of drug addition; 
    • guest investigator at Rockefeller University
  • is majority owner of the Dallas Mavericks, with her son-in-law -- a recent story; thank you, Mark Cuban;
  • a voting member on the board of trustees: USC (my alma mater)
    • do you think she will donate a few dollars to USC when she dies?
  • is worth $28 billion;
    • is the fifth-richest woman in America;
    • richest Israeli in the world;
    • 52nd richest person in the world (Bloomberg); 65th (Forbes)
  • publisher
    • current publisher of the newspaper Israel Hayom
    • owns the Las Vegas Review-Journal
      • Warren Buffett likes (or at least, used to like) newspapers, but I digress
  • awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2018, say what?

Rivian, Lucid, The Cybertruck -- August 18, 2024

Locator: 48451EVS.

Some months ago, I said I wasn't going to follow EVs any more except when there were some particularly newsworthy stories. What can I say? The EV story is absolutely fascinating. 

The most fascinating story this past week: Rivian shuts down Amazon van production due to shortage of parts. The supply chain shortage excuse is getting a bit long in the tooth. What bothered me most was the fact there was no transparency: 

  • what parts?
  • are the parts unique to the Amazon van, or does it include parts found across Rivian's platforms?
  • how did it happen?
  • expected date to begin production?

And then this

Rivian has amassed a surplus of the delivery vans at the plant that are awaiting delivery to Amazon. The carmaker has a deal to supply the company with 100,000 vans by the end of the decade, and about 15,000 are already in service in the U.S. 

Amassed a surplus of the delivery vans at the plant that are awaiting delivery to Amazon. 

Why in the world would a start-up "amass a surplus of delivery vans" apparently already sold to Amazon and expected to arrive during their slow period. 

“We’re aware that Rivian encountered short-term production issues this month, and we don’t expect it to impact us,” an Amazon spokesperson said in an emailed statement.  

Rivian’s vans account for a fraction of the overall fleet used to deliver packages for Amazon, which taps gig workers who drive their own vehicles, as well as traditional couriers such as UPS.

Rivian Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough has said the carmaker expects Amazon to take fewer deliveries during the fourth quarter, consistent with the online merchant’s seasonal pattern when it focuses on the holiday sales rush. 

"... don't expect it to impact us." Why wouldn't they simply say the impact won't affect them at all.

There just seem to be too many "excuses." 

Two thoughts: either this becomes a non-story (most likely) or there's more to this story than either Rivian or Amazon are letting on.

So, what else with regard to Rivian? This link seems to be clickbait with all the ads, but it turns out to be quite a good article. One wonders to what extent AI was used to write the article. By the way, when a reporter acknowledges that AI was used in writing the article, the reporter is telling us the story was written by ChatGPT and was proofread by the writer before posting.

Apparently the match-ups between Rivian and Mercedes and others didn't work because of issues with incompatible electronic control units (ECUs). Rivian wants to keep everything in-house -- the Apple model -- whereas the hoped-for partners did not. Which, of course, on the surface doesn't make sense. That would seem to be one of the things that would make Rivian appealing.

My hunch: like Apple, the Rivian folks are very, very difficult with whom to work, unable to compromise, which fits the Apple narrative. 

From the linked article: 

For Rivian, maintaining control over its network architecture isn’t just important—it’s essential. The company’s entire strategy revolves around having a tightly integrated system where every component works in harmony. The level of control allows Rivian to offer features like seamless over-the-air updates and a unified user experience, which are key selling points for the brand. Much like how Rivian is straying from adding Apple CarPlay or Android Auto to the interior, the brand experience is paramount. 

****************************
Lucid

Benzinga has an interesting take on Lucid. Link here.

With regard to clickbait, this site is even worse, but we press on. 
 

********************************
Investing

Obviously I don't hold any positions in any of the EV companies, or any auto companies at all for that matter. 

Having said that, two observations:

Tesla is not a car company. It's an energy company specializing in batteries and regulatory credit sales

I may need to re-think investing in Rivian. Seriously.

Rivian and Apple: lots and lots of similarities. 

**********************************
Southlake, TX

Lots and lots of Teslas in the Southlake, Texas, neighborhoods, and Southlake is not even the swankiest suburb in the state.

Tesla sedans everywhere and now Cybertrucks. They are huge. They seem like the perfect vehicle for fighting wars in Iraq, if the Mideast would a) put in a few thousand charging units; and, b) pave over the sand so the incredibly heavy Cybertrucks could actually off-road. 

Cybertrucks are clearly bought to "show off." I guess it's called "prestige" these days. Whatever.

Exhibit A

Benzinga said this, not me:

Enerplus Will Report Some Huge Wells -- Again -- This Next Week -- August 18, 2024 -- Updated August 25, 2024

Locator: 48450ENERPLUS.

Reminder: Enerplus is now part of Chord Energy. With regard to wells, mano a mano, Enerplus has the best wells, then Oasis, then Whiting. 

Previously posted: a reminder how active the operators are in the area of these wells:

The wells: 

  • 39855, conf, Enerplus, Wildebeest 148-95-4A-16H, Eagle Nest,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20244681860649
5-20244669653696
4-20244419351801
3-20243219836816
2-20240119
  • 39854, conf, Enerplus, Yak 148-95-4A-16H, Eagle Nest,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20244535663922
5-20244519256685
4-20241967125003
3-20243240436747
2-202401217
  • 39853, conf, Enerplus, Jade 148-95-4A-9H-LL, Eagle Nest,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20242646435312
5-20243898448045
4-20244415656326
3-20245246765288
2-202448533440
  • 39800, conf, Enerplus, Opal 148-95-03A-10H, Eagle Nest,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20242593737673
5-20243851250427
4-20243199640951
3-20241171116259
2-20241022213637
  • 39795, conf, Enerplus, Sapphire 148-95-03B-10H, Eagle Nest,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20243717640455
5-20244170742377
4-20243117242817
3-20246575993198
2-20241542718784
END

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- August 18, 2024

Locator: 48449B.

The wells:

  • 40476, conf, CLR, Clover 4-10H, Murphy Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20244535663922
5-20244519256685
4-20241967125003
3-20243240436747
2-202401217
  • 40361, conf, Oasis, Maverick Federal 5602 13-12 3B, Tyrone, npd,
  • 36270, conf, BR, George-Lillibridge 4C MBH-ULW, Pershing, npd,
  • 40470, conf, Oasis, Maverick Federal 5602 13-12 2B, Tyrone, npd,
  • 39854, conf, Enerplus, Yak 148-95-4A-16H, Eagle Nest,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20244535663922
5-20244519256685
4-20241967125003
3-20243240436747
2-202401217
  • 36269, conf, BR, George 4B TFH, Pershing, npd,
  • 21543, conf, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26 1-H, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20242176776735
5-20241990360808
4-20242829671740
3-2024111396019
  • 40348, conf, Stephens Williston, Greenbrier 15591-0211-3HSL, Stanley,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2024104555735
  • 36268, conf, BR, George 4A MBH, Pershing, npd,
  • 40349, conf, Stephens Williston, Greenbrier 15591-0211-4H, Stanley,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-202473593749
  • 39853, conf, Enerplus, Jade 148-95-4A-9H-LL, Eagle Nest,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20242646435312
5-20243898448045
4-20244415656326
3-20245246765288
2-202448533440
  • 39255, conf, Hess, SC-4WX-153-98-3130H-7, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-2024948218309
5-20243120447200
4-20243368763394
3-20245713982735
2-202467435732

  • 40394, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HUL, Mandaree, npd,
  • 40393, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HD, Reunion Bay, npd,
  • 39709, conf, Hess, TI-Larson-157-95-2536H-3, Tioga,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20241767619399
5-20241517417537
4-20241727919600
3-20242969628290
2-2024912410808
  • 39708, conf, Hess, TI-Larson -157-95-2536H-2,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20241335316572
5-20241268715015
4-20241629218704
3-20241986719013
2-202491516589
  • 24362, conf, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26 4H, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20242698483445
5-20242156662912
4-20242181243847
3-20242523506
  • 40392, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HZ, Reunion Bay, npd, 
  • 39900, conf, Liberty Resources, Elroy E 158-95-7-6-2MBH, Temple,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20241062012126
5-20241357819653
4-20241817425082
3-20241613918598
2-20244060473
  • 40391, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HB, Reunion Bay, npd,
  • 40345, conf, Whiting, Sanish Bay E Federal 5292 11-3 2BX, Sanish, 
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20241509913821
  • 39800, conf, Enerplus, Opal 148-95-03A-10H, Eagle Nest,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20242593737673
5-20243851250427
4-20243199640951
3-20241171116259
2-20241022213637
  • 40390, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HW, Reunion Bay, npd,
  • 39901, conf, Liberty Resources, Alvin E 158-95-18-19-2MBH, Temple,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20241446220748
5-20242001035944
4-20242051831952
3-20243419947962
2-20241194914958
  • 40237, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HC, Reunion Bay, npd,
  • 39902, conf, Liberty Resources, Alvin E 158-95-18-19-2MBH, Temple,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20241081317120
5-20241585130271
4-20241932330082
3-20242787235932
2-2024984711691
  • 39795, conf, Enerplus, Sapphire 148-95-03B-10H, Eagle Nest,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20243717640455
5-20244170742377
4-20243117242817
3-20246575993198
2-20241542718784
  • 39254, conf, Hess, SC-4WX-153-98-3130H-6, Banks,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
6-20241425026894
5-20242095045916
4-20243037562671
3-20244066895484
2-20242681539653
  • 40416, conf, Kraken, Fasching 15-22-27 4H, Hebron, npd,
  • 40389, conf, WPX, Missouri River 25-26HW, Reunion Bay, npd,
  • 24360, conf, Grayson Mill, Knight 35-26 2H, Banks, npd,