Locator: 46222ECON.
Saturday, December 2, 2023
Oil Price Volatility -- Explained -- Sort Of -- December 2, 2023
Locator: 46221OIL.
Both of these articles are behind a paywall. One is from Bloomberg and the other is from The WSJ.
From The WSJ -- again this article is a year old but nothing has changed.
It has been a tough year (2022) for oil traders. Even the computers haven’t been able to get it right consistently. Wall Street is closely tracking firms that use trend-following algorithms to trade oil futures, which profited mightily from betting on higher prices as crude climbed to more than $120 per barrel this spring. But with oil falling bumpily since June, the trend-followers have waffled between bullish and bearish wagers and given some of those profits back.
Analysts are blaming them for amplifying oil’s wild price swings. Traders are monitoring them to steer clear of the waves they make in the market. Investors are mimicking them for profit. And this year’s oil-price roller-coaster ride is putting their logic to the test.
Recent research from Goldman Sachs cited so-called commodity trading advisers for intensifying a recent five-week slide in which oil dropped nearly 23%. Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices, landed at a recent low around $79 a barrel, close to where it started the year.
Commodity trading adviser, or CTA, is industry jargon for a hedge fund that uses computer algorithms to divine and follow price trends, typically by comparing recent prices to their average over a previous period. Despite their name, CTAs trade futures on currencies, stocks, and bonds in addition to commodities such as oil.
Like previous ones, “the most recent selloff, has also been associated with substantial CTA liquidations,” says Daniel Ghali, senior commodities strategist at TD Securities.
Bottom line: CTAs have no emotion, do not read financial statements, do not follow politics, do not know the difference between computer chips and potato chips. They simply track price changes over time... from as short a period as one minute to as long as years.
Chart Of The Day -- December 2, 2023
Locator: 46220TECH.
Before we get to the chart, from MarketBeat a few days ago:
My reply: who cares?
This reminds me of a story. Almost two decades ago (?) an insurance agent, who clearly did not have my interests in mind, made a suggestion with regard to insurance. His suggestion was very, very, very enticing. But his suggestion was really all about the insurance company and not about my family.
I was given two options: my current insurance plan -- quite involved, and quite robust -- or this guy's new suggestion -- simple, but new (no history on which to judge) -- so two options. In his mind, the insurance agent's mind, it was a binary choice: I could stay with my plan with was awesome, or go with his plan which might be even more awesome. The monthly premium would not change.
I honestly did not know what to do. Then I slept on it, as they say.
I made the best decision ever. LOL. I doubled my monthly premium -- I kept the awesome plan that I already had and bought the insurance agent's plan which turned out to be awesome, also. In one respect, his plan was better; in another respect, my original insurance plan was better.
Because of the way the two plans are "configured," one cannot compare "dollars-and-cents" return of one plan with the other. But instead of one awesome plan, I have two awesome plans.
Now back to the daily chart.
MSFT and BRK have both been around a long time.
One year ago and five years ago we all had the same information on MSFT and BRK.
Hindsight is 20/20:
By the way, speaking of Microsoft vs Nvidia vs Berkshire, right now, today, as we speak, 50% of the BRK equity portfolio is in one ticker: AAPL. So, in a sense, if one were to re-phrase the discussion, it could quickly become Microsoft vs Nvidia vs Apple, Inc.
BRKpays no dividends and under current management, never will.
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.
All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.
Parting shot(s):
Peter Lynch, famously, had 20.
Supercomputers -- Nvidia -- Grace Hopper 200 -- December 2, 2023
Locator: 46219TECH.
In addition to the links below, other links to follow:
Updates
May 11, 2025: Shay Boloor on Nvidia.
December 3, 2023: update on supercomputing. Also, to some extent, "supercomputing 101."
Later, 8:32 a.m. Before we get started -- Countries: ranked by computer technology. US is number 1; mainland China is #3. Can you guess, #2?
Original Post
Comment: the fact that none -- repeat, none -- of the CNBC anchors or panelists ever mention "Grace" or "Hopper" or "Grace Hopper 200" or "Hopper 100" in their discussions speaks volumes.
Two days ago: link here.
Back in September, 2023: link here. Perlmutter. Also, here.
August 8, 2023: Forbes, The Grace Hopper 200 superchip.
Back in May, 2023: link here. Grace Hopper 200.
Supercomputers: ranking. Globally, as of November, 2022:
- five of the top ten: Nvida
- two of the top ten: AMD; another two use AMD & Nvidia
- two of the top ten are Chinese and neither uses Nvidia; one used Intel; and one uses a Chinese company;
- one each: Finland, Italy, Japan
- notice which countries are not in the top ten
NCSA: Illinois. Link here.
NSF: link here.
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For Investors
Chips, semiconductor: link here.
- Home page for tech: link here.
- The cloud: link here.
- Streaming: link here. Streaming wars.
- Spatial computing: link here.
- Generative AI: link here.
- Apple Silicon: link here.
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Screenshots
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More
Number of supercomputers, by country: link here.
Latest and largest: Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
Startling numbers:
- designers: many but only a few "big-name"
- foundries: many, but probably less than number of "big-name" designers. I can think of two or three of any importance
- lithograph equipment: one
Countries: ranked by computer technology. US is number 1; mainland China is #3. Can you guess, #2?
Week 48: November 27, 2023 -- December 3, 2023
Locator: 46218TOPSTORY.
Top, top story:
- Israel-Gaza: truce ends; mostly blame on Hamas
Top North Dakota energy story:
- contributed 37% of nation's increase in crude oil production, month/month; tops all other plays
Top story
Top international non-story story:
- Russian-Ukraine war continues; drags on and on and on; has taken backseat to Israel-Gaza;
- Russia most recently invaded February 22, 2022
- the war actually goes back to 2014
- most recent propaganda suggests Russia has the MOJO now, as US seems to step back
Top international energy story:
- OPEC in disarray; commits to status quo; further cuts will be voluntary by individual members;
Top national non-energy story:
- US equities: remarkable bull run; Dow sets new 52-week; pretty much goes unnoticed;
- US Senate won't confirm US military leaders; GOP senator says DOD oversteps authority
Top national energy story:
Focus on fracking: most recent edition.
Top North Dakota non-energy story:
Top North Dakota energy story:
Bakken economy:
- holding in there -- active rigs running about 36;
Commentary:
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