Apple, Oil, And The Texas Grid -- All In One Note -- February 4, 2022

Wow, wow, wow. Just as I predicted a few days ago! Enbridge partners with First Nations on proposed carbon capture project. Didn't post the original story at the time because I was able to see what was coming next. This is not rocket science. So many story lines here. "Co-opt" comes to mind.

The graphic you won't see in the Boston Globe or the Bismarck Tribune today, link here:

DFW: we live about a mile west of DFW, and have not yet had to turn the heat on in our little hovel. 

Electricity never went out. Sophia has a four-day weekend with us. Snowball fight yesterday. A walk to Target last night. What's not to like. DFW is where that big winter storm hit. At least that's what I'm reading in the newspapers on line. Almost as bad as the purported misinformation coming from Joe Rogan. Looking for TikTok videos of the DFW storm. 

Texas grid:

• capacity: 80 GW
• forecast: 75 GW
• actual: did not quite reach 69 GW

Gasoline prices, link here:

• above $3.00, coast-to-coast
• approaching $5.00 in California
• early February; many months until driving season begins

The meme, under Trump:

• drill, drill, drill
• build the Keystone XL
• energy independence
• Texas gasoline: $0.99 / gallon
• message: make America great again

The meme, under Biden:

• ban drilling on federal land
• vacate previously approved permits
• kill the Keystone XL on day 1
• Texas gasoline: $3.29 / gallon
• message: we're continuing to look at options

Shortfall or glut? To be or not to be, that is the question. 

I can find as many sources on the internet suggesting there will be a gut of crude oil this summer as I can find sources suggesting shortages and $100-WTI. 

Something to talk about. 

I'm in the camp that suggests there will be no shortage of oil; we'll be just fine. The bigger question is why are producers not projected to pump more petroleum out of the Permian? There are several reasons, but it's not due to "voluntrry operator restraint."

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The Apple Page

This will show 'em: to satisfy Dutch regulators, Apple will now collect a 27% commission rather than the typical 30% commission. Link here.

Taking advantage of Spotify: since launching in 2015, Music Music has offered a three-month free trial to first-time subscribers, but the trial period had now been reduced to one month. Link here. 

Upgrades: the new fifth-generaion iPad Air and the third-generation iPhone SE will have the A15 chip.

The new iPhone SE 5G: what to expect. For one thing, only $399.

Next Apple event: March, 2022. New iPhone SE and the new iPad Air to be announced. iPhone SE to be released March 8, 2022?

Is Kraken The Next Slawson? February 4, 2022

I track Kraken here, albeit not doing a good job. Yet. 

After my response to a reader regarding Kraken yesterday (link pending), another reader wrote:

We now have [x] wells with them in Williams County. Their returns have been absolutely fantastic. The production from their wells have far outpaced the production from the CLR wells previously drilled in neighboring pools. Hope they stick around!

My not-ready-for-prime-time reply with some additional material:

Yes, I'm sure Kraken is going to stick around. My hunch is they will add acreage in Williams County. They got a ton of cash from selling assets in the Sanish.

I find the Kraken fascinating.

When I started the blog, the EOG wells in the Sanish were said to be the "be-all, end-all" -- the best wells ever. I posted that often. Then EOG and the Sanish sort of went away.

I got the feeling, just before Mark Papa left EOG, he (and his company) never really understood the Bakken (as in "unconventional play") at the time. They learned a lot in the Bakken but saw greener pastures in the Permian and never optimized what they had in the Permian. Oasis followed suit but realized their mistake and came back as a pure-play Bakken operator.

Whiting seems to be hit-and-miss with wells, but Kraken -- every well is a winner, though they don't have nearly as many as some of the other operators.

Every year it seems like another operator steps up and surprises me. This year, it's Kraken. One year it was NOG (and they are still surprising me).

MRO is a perennial favorite. 

$93 WTI; 34 Rigs; Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- February 4, 2022

The story of the year: all this US LNG headed to Europe.

The story of next year: all this US LNG headed to Europe.

The story of the year after next year: all this US LNG headed to Europe. There is no evidence that Europe will get its act together any time soon. Germany will be shutting down its last nuclear during the worst energy crisis since WWII. 

Plaquemines: wow, wow, wow. We first talked about this two months ago -- and now, today, RBN Energy has a big story on this new export terminal. See below. Amazing.  Sophia, upon seeing the story, said, "We don't miss much do we?" My reply: except spelling errors. LOL.

ISO NE:

• demand at a paltry 16,559 MW
• priced at 8th decile (the highest decile it will ever reach)
• fuel mix:
• oil: 11%
• renewables: 9%; unpredictable, not dispatchable
• hydro: 6%; incredibly expensive
• coal: they've run out of coal

Texas grid:

• capacity: 80 GW
• forecast demand: 75 GW
• actual: 69 GW

Russian diesel: sets record. Exports to US at three-year high. Link to Irina Slav. 

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$92.68	2/4/2022	02/04/2021	02/04/2020	02/04/2019	02/04/2018
Active Rigs	34	14	54	63	58

Friday, February 4, 2022: 13 for the month, 68 for the quarter, 68 for the year

• 38423, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Reed 5-10-03-158N-100W-MBH,
• 35131, conf, Enerplus, Huntsman 149-92-32D-29H-TF1, 

RBN Energy: Venture Global's Plaquemines project could lead next wave of US LNG development. Archived.

It’s expected to be a big year for U.S. LNG. The U.S. was the top monthly exporter of LNG for the first time in December 2021 and is expected to hold onto that crown as new capacity at Sabine Pass and a new terminal, Calcasieu Pass, begin service this year. 

The chaos of European gas markets has made U.S. exports particularly attractive, especially after a year or more of high global demand, sky-high global gas prices, and an undersupplied market that has left offtakers clamoring for more. 

Last year saw those offtakers come back to the negotiating table for long-term sales and purchase agreements (SPAs) from new U.S. LNG capacity and several projects now have a realistic path to a positive final investment decision (FID) in 2022. 

In today’s RBN blog we begin a series taking a closer look at some of the projects most likely to reach FID this year, starting with arguably the most likely next contender, Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG.

WTI Is Off The Rails At $93 -- White House Is Monitoring -- Announces Masks Are Available -- February 4, 2022

See first link: Rail Link is a rail line in Montana, not Odessa. See first comment. 

Picture of the day, Odessa. Rails? We don't need no stinkin' rails in the Permian. At $93, one needs to do what one needs to do.

White House presser:

Covid masks becoming easier to obtain. With all that's happening in the world right now, and with Covid-19 in our rear-view mirrors, does that mask announcement seem so ... weird?

Texas grid:

• forecast: demand would surge to 75 GW
• in fact: did not reach 69 GW
• ERCOT capacity: 80GW

WTI: $93.

Suncor: ouch.

• "every" other oil company is up 3 - 5% today on $93-WTI
• Suncor? down over a percent after earnings announced; still in the red for the day
• Suncor -- the darling of the Canadian companies reports earnings -- headlines:
• Suncor earnings: shares fall as 4Q21 swings to $1.5 billion profit
• Suncor posts a nice quarter

Quoth the Raven, link here -- remember when Cathie Wood said oil was going to $12:

"Oil demand probably hit a secular peak last year (2020) and, thanks to EVs, now is in secular "decline." 

"Though ARK has no formal forecast, I believe that oil prices are on their way back to $12, the level reached after the 1973 oil cartel crisis, or lower, now that EVs are taking off."

$92 —February 4, 2022